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Category Archives: General

Smart TV: Not Dead Yet!

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I'm Not Dead Yet!

There’s a post on Wired entitled “Smart-TV Space May Never Take Off as Predicted” in which the author quotes a comment from ViewSonic:

“’Smart TV’ has not achieved the consumer acceptance or market expectation… that was forecasted over the last couple years. In addition, consumer spending for Smart TV’s in general has experienced a significant slow down as the economy has slowed. Our current strategy is to stay involved with the various technology developments and consider them in the future as they become available.”

Now with all due respect to ViewSonic, the last time I checked they didn’t rank in the top 5 TV manufacturers, and based on looking at prior years reports, my hunch is they represent somewhere between 0-3% of TVs sold (they do well in monitors, not as much in TVs).  So when they predict Smart TV to have a problem, perhaps they aren’t the voice we should be using, as compared to companies such as Samsung, who has over 2 million Smart TVs in homes already.

Q2’11 Worldwide Flat Panel TV Brand Rankings by Revenue Share

Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report

As Michael Wolf, of GigaOM, tweeted: “Folks, Viewsonic is not the bellweather company by which to judge success of embryonic sector on #smarttv.” Now that said, I completely agree with James McQuivey (Forrester analyst who is hitting Smart TV issues squarely on the head):

“What’s happening in the connected TV space is it’s not really about what consumers want, it’s about what manufacturers are making,” Forrester principal analyst James McQuivey says. “Simply having a connected TV doesn’t mean you’ll actually use it.”

According to all the analysts and manufacturers I’ve spoken with personally, and that’s virtually all of them, the industry is pretty well agreed that somewhere between 1/4 to 1/3 of all Smart TVs actually get connected.  Further, the vast majority of them are just using them for Netflix, and just about everything else is getting pretty well ignored (stats show the #1 Smart TV app is Netflix, #2 is YouTube, and #3 is “other”).

The Wired author goes on to cite failures of the Google TV Revue box as more evidence to why the market is stuttering.  The truth is, the Revue box is failing because it’s a lousy product with a poor customer value proposition, and Kevin Bacon commercials aren’t enough to pull the wool over it.  But this would be like saying there’s no SmartPhone market because the BlackBerry Storm wasn’t so hot.

BlackBerry Angry Birds

Wait a sec, that's not a touch screen!

Last January I wrote a piece for Mashable called “5 Reasons Connected TV Could Flop in 2011” and in my opinion, all 5 of those problems are happening.  And I don’t see anybody really emerging out of the pack to do it any better – yet.  In fact, I’d wager we’re going to go a full calendar year from now before seeing signs of change.  And here’s why:

The TV UI (aka “ten foot user interface” aka “lean back UI” aka “onscreen display”) is simply unable to scale to meet the demands of convergence.  I’ll write more on this topic in the next couple of weeks, but mark my words: we have utterly reached the apex of functionality of all forms of TV-based user interfaces/experiences.

I believe TiVo pushed the concept to the breaking point with their original UX back in 1999, and I’ve seen nothing push it further since.  Yes, there are some prettier looking things out there, with beautiful icons/etc, but from a UX standpoint, we’re well past the zenith of what you can do with a remote.  And no, I don’t believe gestures are going to cut it either, and I’ll go into depth on that topic in an upcoming post as well.

I'd change the channel, but honestly my arms are just too tired.

The last point on Smart TV I have is this – the biggest “thing” that’s going to slow down all forms of growth is replacement cycle consideration.  If you buy a device once every 7-8 years, yet know intrinsically that the technology inside that device will be outdated long before that, you are less likely to buy it.  The only way manufacturers can solve this problem, as far as I can see it, is through a modular component that will enable future-proofing of the set.  Hm, yup, time for a blog post on that.

So is the Smart TV world fragmented? Yes. Confounded? Yes. Faced with turbulence? Yes.  Full of shoddy products that are causing backlash and poor word of mouth due to radically complicated living room experiences when all we want to do is kick back, turn on Bear Grylls, and have a beer? Absolutely. Dying? Nope, not even a tiny bit.

List of SmartTV Events for Fall 2011

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Budapest Parliament Hall. This would be an awesome place for a smart TV conference!

Just like my Future of TV Newsletter (thanks to all the subscribers – wow!), I thought it would be helpful for all my peers to create a list of all the events I’m tracking this Fall that have anything to do with Smart, Social, or Connected TV.  That said, I’m sure I’m missing some (please email, tweet, or comment if you know of any!).  The list below also includes some of the speakers that are presenting, though is incomplete (I only had so much room on the page, sorry to anyone I cut – it wasn’t personal.  Well, mostly.).

The Future of #SocialTV – Sept 14 – New York City

Speakers include:

  • Brian Stelter, TV & Digital Media Reporter at The New York Times ( @BrianStelter)
  • Mark Ghuneim, CEO of Wiredset/Trendrr, @MarkGhuneim
  • Valerie Streit, Strategist at YouTube/NextNew, @ValStreit
  • Ryan Osborn, Director of Social Media at NBC News, @Rozzy
  • Alex Iskold, Founder & CEO of Get Glue, @AlexIskold

Lean Back – Sept 14 – San Francisco

Demos by:

Digital Home Summit – Sept 27/28 – Orlando

Speakers include:

2Screen – Sept 29 – London

Speakers include:

TV Next 2011 – Oct 4-5 – San Jose

Speakers include:

  • Sherry Brennan, FOX Networks
  • Steven Reynolds, Comcast
  • Eric Bruno, Verizon
  • Jim Louderback, Revision3
  • Larry Robinson, Motorola Mobility
  • David Mcintosh, Redux
  • Jeremy Toeman, Dijit
  • Kurt Hoppe, LG Electronics
  • Colin Dixon, The Diffusion Group
  • Stephen White, Gracenote
  • Richard Bullwinkle, Rovi
  • Ryan Massie, CBS Interactive

The Connected TV Experience – Oct 11/12 – Chiswick/London

Speakers include:

  • Anna Bateson, marketing director, EMEA at YouTube;
  • Lesley MacKenzie, group digital officer, at LOVEFiLM;
  • Anthony Rose, co-founder and CTO of Zeebox;
  • Dan Saunders, head of content services at Samsung;
  • Bjarne Thelin, chief executive, BARB;
  • Nigel Walley, managing director of Decipher;
  • Tom Wolfe, senior director, advanced advertising at Rovi.

Digital Hollywood Fall & the Variety Entertainment & Technology Summit – Oct 17-20 – Los Angeles

Speakers include:

  • Quincy Jones (yes, Quincy Jones!)
  • Harshul Sanghi, Motorola Mobility Ventures
  • Kerry Trainor, AOL
  • Jeremy Toeman, Dijit
  • Dan Cohen, Disney-ABC Domestic Television
  • Stephan Shelanski, Starz Entertainment
  • Leslie Wood, The Nielsen Company
  • Gregg Spiridellis, JibJab Media
  • Bill Gannon, Entertainment Weekly
  • John Griffin, Dolby Laboratories
  • Curt Marvis, Lionsgate
  • Lance Koenders, Intel Corporation
  • Kurt Hoppe, LG Electronics

Smart TV Europe – Nov 1/2 – London

Speakers include:

  • Karla Gecki, Facebook
  • Dan Saunders, Samsung
  • Stacey Seltzer, LG Electronics
  • Jordy Egging, Philips
  • Eric Elia, Brightcove
  • John Denton, BBC
  • Yosi Glick, Jinni
  • Anthony Rose, tBone TV

Streaming Media West 2011 – Nov 8/9 – Los Angeles

Speakers include:

  • Chris Knowlton, Microsoft
  • Michael Aragon, Sony Network Entertainment
  • Fred Santarpia, VEVO
  • John Civiletto, Cox Communications
  • Donagh O’Malley, Google TV
  • Paul Wehrley, Clicker.com
  • Ran Harnevo, AOL Video
  • Rob Roskin, MTV Networks
  • Gilles BianRosa, Fanhattan
  • Andrew Wallerstein, Variety
  • Greg Sandoval, CNET
  • Jim Funk, Roku
  • Evan Young, TiVo
  • Derrick, Oien, Chumby

TV of Tomorrow NYC Intensive 2011 – Dec 5 – New York City

Speaker list not yet finalized

Digital Living Room – Dec 7/8 – San Francisco

Speakers include:

  • Ashish Arora, GM, Digital Home, Logitech International
  • Ian Geller, VP, Business Development, Pandora
  • Joe Greenstein, Co-Founder and CEO, Flixster
  • Neal Hansch, Partner, Rustic Canyon Venture Partners
  • Evan Krauss, EVP, Advertising, Shazam Entertainment
  • Scott Levine, VP and Managing Director, Time Warner Investments
  • David Schlacht, Sr. Director, Multimedia, DirecTV
  • Jeremy Toeman, Chief Product Officer, Dijit
  • Charles Seiber, VP, Marketing, Roku
  • Paul Wehrley, General Manager, Clicker.com and TV.com, CBS Interactive

Thanks, Steve!

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Apple is one of those companies that tends to polarize people. Some hate them for “closed” systems.  Others love them for beautiful products.  Some call them evil and bullying.  Others say they open markets.  I’m not one to debate, so I’ll just cut to the chase by saying Apple, in the past decade, has contributed more to consumer technology than most other companies combined.  And it’s fairly hard to argue that the Apple of today is entirely the company Steve built.

Steve Jobs’ resignation hits hard, but the only thing that comes as a surprise is the seeming suddenness of it (Yeah, but I mean the very end, when he actually resigned. That was extremely sudden).  Here’s a list of some of the things, love em or hate em, that we should all be thankful of Jobs/Apple for (and yes, I’m sure some dude in some lab somewhere invented all these things about 300 years ago, but if it weren’t for Apple, we all wouldn’t know about them):

  • Internet-based music distribution: from iTunes to Pandora to Spotify to Turntable, had it not been for Apple creating the iPod+iTunes ecosystem, it’s unlikely the music industry would’ve had sufficient motivation to enable “digital” as fast as they did.  The MP3 market would’ve grown much slower, resulting in less buy-in from the industry, resulting in a lack of streaming and on-demand services.  Would we have something like it today?  Probably.  Would it all be priced the way it is today?  Doubtful.  It took the muscle of the iPod’s dominance to enable Apple to negotiate the entire music industry into the $0.99 pricing schema we have today.  It’s likely that companies such as Amazon and Sony would’ve ended up much strong in this space, but we’d probably be paying more for the same content, and I’d wager services like Pandora would never have gotten off the ground.
  • “Real” smartphones: Unquestionably smartphones predate the iPhone.  Blackberries had some “smartness” and earlier generation Windows Mobile devices actually provided quite a bit of functionality, not to mention the granddaddy of them all, the Palm/Treo lines.  But let’s face it, the iPhone really changed everything.  Capacitive touchscreens (remember the stylus? nope, me neither), app stores (more on that to come), and more, all thanks to the iPhone’s success.  I think Nokia and RIM would still be considered the leaders in the mobile space if Apple had never shipped an iPhone, and team Android should be exceptionally grateful for its existence.
  • Gestures: Pinch + Zoom? Swipe? Multi-finger scroll?  One could argue this is just a subset of the smartphone, but it’s not, as gesture support has improved the computing experience overall.  Prior to the “two finger scroll” feature on MacBooks, the only thing even close was the variety of PC manufacturers who enabled the right-side scroll region on their inputs.  Once again, an area where numerous companies could’ve beaten Apple to the punch, but simply didn’t.
  • The Internet: Just kidding.
  • That's a Vaio?

    Nice Macbook, er, Vaio.

    Bringing Sexy Back: From the moment Steve rejoined Apple through to today, the company’s products have set the standard for technology aesthetics.  Whether it’s the sleek industrial design, the minimalistic approach, the amazing attention to detail, or the use of aluminium, it’s as if Apple showed up in a Porsche while everyone around them were driving Volvos (boxy, but good).  As a result, there’s been an almost frenetic rush to make distinctive, beautiful technology.  And some of it’s even been pretty good!

  • Changing Retail: When Apple first announced they’d open their own retail stores, they were literally laughed at. There’s now over 300 of them, and they are unbelievably successful.  They are considered the best retail customer experience overall. They are wildly profitable.  Consumers enjoy going there even when they don’t buy things.  In fact, my only surprise here is the lack of copycats – nobody’s even close to creating a similar experience at such a grand level.  Well, maybe in China…
  • The App Economy: Yes, my PalmPilot had installable apps, and so did my Windows Mobile phone.  But it took Apple to create a nearly $4-BILLION app economy and marketplace.  My hunch here is without Apple revolutionizing the concept (by, again, creating a full end-to-end experience regarding discovery, installation, and most importantly, payment, for apps), we’d have nothing even as advanced as the Android market is today, which I still consider to be floundering in the dust relatively (simple tip to radically improve said experience: sort all apps AND reviews by device – will fix 80% of fragmentation problems in one fell swoop).
  • The iPad: Remember when tablets really sucked?  Guess what, they still do.  But what doesn’t suck is the iPad.  Other than speculation and conjecture, the reality check is the only successful “tablet-like product” on the market is the iPad, all others pale in comparison.  I could write a dozen or so blog posts on what everybody else is doing wrong, but the thing that matters here is all the things Apple did right.  They made something that perfectly fits into a few dozen million peoples’ lives.  Flash? Nobody cares.  USB?  Nobody cares.  “Closed system”?  Nobody cares.  The iPad, as if by magic, navigated through the waters of touch-input devices to create the admittedly-not-perfect product, but so far beyond “good enough” that it’s changed computing as we know it.

I’m sure I’m missing a bunch of things that the company did that I can’t even recall at this moment, but these were the ones that hit me as most important.  How did they do it?  The comfort in saying “no, we can’t ship that yet, it’s just not ready.”  The comfort in saying “it’s okay if we aren’t providing every feature known to man, just so long as our features are great.”  The comfort in saying “we don’t have to be perfectly compatible with all other technologies that have come before us, if we make a strong ecosystem ourselves.”  The comfort in saying “we believe this is what people really want, and we’re going to give it to them.”

These are statements that no other technology manufacturer or provider make, so far as I’ve seen in my career (with brief exceptions, such as Sling, Flip, and a handful of others).

When Steve Jobs rejoined Apple in the late 90s, it’s well known that he rapidly ripped apart products, cut staff, and trimmed down the entire operation to get radically focused.  Since then, beyond all the technology and products, what Steve’s done the most is built the very DNA of the Apple that we know today.  The real contribution Steve made, in my opinion, was creating a culture of building to perfection, and understanding what that means as a core essence.

As I commented on TechCrunch, “Much like when a pitcher walks from the mound, the entire tech industry should stand and give a round of applause for one who has contributed so much.”

Time to call it a day

When a pitcher takes that walk, sometimes it’s because they’re pulled.  But every now and then, that pitcher gave his all, kicked some amazing ass, and it’s just time for him to take a rest.  But along the way he carried or maybe even made the game.  And his spirit carries the team even further.  And for those of us watching on the sidelines, we rise with applause, out of thanks and respect.

You rocked our world!

And then the game carries on.

They Pulled Me Back In! I’m Joining Dijit Media as Chief Product Officer

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A week ago I announced that Jim Schaff would be taking over active duties at Stage Two, and that I’d be focusing on “other stuff.”  Today I’m excited to share the stuff:  I am joining the management team of Dijit Media as Chief Product Officer, where I’m responsible for product and marketing (here’s the official update).  Not only that, my virtually common law married colleague (business partners for much of the past 14 years) and very close friend Adam Burg is the company’s VP of Business Development.

What???

Last Fall, I gave a presentation at the Set-Top Box Conference in San Jose, and the entire drive back I had a feeling of near elation.  Not that I had said anything extremely profound, but it was wrapped up in the feeling of doing something I had a lot of passion for – in this case, discussing the future of television.  Over the next few months, I spent a lot of time doing research in the Smart TV (also called Connected TV or Internet TV) space, and started seeing some trends emerge, and realized there were some very interesting business opportunities on the horizon.

Adam and I spent months developing a prototype concept of the vision we had, and went to meet with some of the brightest folks we know in the convergence field.  One such bright folk was well-known VC Stewart Alsop, who I’ve known since the late 1990s, who introduced us to Maksim Ioffe, CEO of Dijit.  In our very first meeting with Maksim it was clear he shared much of the same industry and product vision and philosophy with Adam and me. I’ll keep this part of the story short, as we’ve all seen this movie before – we ended up agreeing to join the company. And there was much rejoicing (yay).

Why Dijit?

The grand vision of Dijit is to create the ultimate “four screen” (phone, tablet, computer, TV) social entertainment experience, one which seamlessly merges disparate products and platforms and content into one single, easy to use, consumer offering.  The company is well on its way, and its first product is an iPhone app that enables a really sophisticated, yet elegantly simple control experience for home media centers.   As Maksim put it, “Consumers have 21st-century home entertainment experiences but are stuck with remote controls that haven’t been updated since the 1980s.”  The company partnered with Griffin to produce the Beacon, a clever take on the “IR blaster” product, and one that’s already receiving solid reviews (and I haven’t even done anything yet!).  This is going to be a very exciting company to be a part of, and I’m thrilled to have such an opportunity.

Reminiscing.

I still recall the early days at Mediabolic, where we enabled networked home entertainment solutions that interfaced with legacy, analog consumer electronics devices (yes, we were networking the living room in an era where there were virtually no HDTVs, no YouTube, no Pandora, and no… iPod!).  At Mediabolic I learned what it takes to design and build embedded entertainment devices, to work with consumer electronics manufacturers, and the deep set of challenges surrounding the connected home industry (fun trivia: I heard the phrase “this is THE year of the digital home” every single year starting in 2001 – possibly earlier).  It was a great experience, and key people from that team now work at amazing companies like Netflix, Rovi Corp (Rovi acquired Mediabolic in 2007), etc.

At Sling Media I had the unique opportunity to work for and with some outstanding individuals, not to mention the position of being tasked with figuring out how to deliver the perfect “living room experience” – only over the Internet.  The company’s CEO, Blake Krikorian, taught me the meaning of focusing on every detail and nuance, remaining truly innovative, and keeping the consumer’s wants and needs in the forefront of every product decision.  I also had to learn the ins and outs of social media, back in the era before it was called “social media,” where “the bloggers” were a special, hard to understand subset of humanity (or, as I rapidly learned, just cool people).  We accomplished a great success building the Slingbox, and I’m proud of the product, the team, and the experience.

Over the past four years at Stage Two, I’ve had tremendous exposure to startups, big companies, CEOs, visionaries, the media, and managing a great team.  We literally put companies like Boxee, Bug Labs, and Pogoplug on the map, and have also had the chance to work for well-established firms like Electronic Arts, Best Buy, and VUDU (now Wal-Mart).  I’ve learned from entrepreneurs like Jim Lanzone (now president of CBS Interactive), Peter Semmelhack (Bug Labs), David McIntosh (Redux), Rahim Fazal (Involver) and so many others (I’ll write another post in the next little while chock full of shout-outs).  I’ve redesigned product experiences for dozens of products, and created marketing/PR/social media campaigns for dozens more, and had the pleasure to work with great teams along the way.

The Future.

And now I’m taking all of the above, and putting it to work at one place.  Welcome to Dijit.

Bloggin' Again… Soon?

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Been a few months since I’ve written much.  Not that I haven’t had anything to say, I keep finding troves of things to talk about, just not quite enough time to put down thoughts.  I’ve been sharing a lot more through Twitter and Facebook than I used to, plus a few comments here and there.  But that ain’t enough, and I want to do more.  Plus I have a lot of new things happening that I look forward to talking about…

Oh, and a note to all people pitching me – I am not really going to accept pitches anymore.  I want to write about my own concepts, thoughts, ideas, and reactions to/from/with my peers.  Please, no more story ideas, interview opportunities, or other things we both know I won’t care about.  Having been involved with PR myself for some of the last few years, I understand the challenges you have to do your job, but doing it well means respecting my request.  Thanks.

My Analysis of Google TV’s Ten Foot UI in Nikkei Electronics

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I recently had the opportunity to critique the Logitech Revue’s ten foot UI for Nikkei Electronics, a Japanese trade magazine that “offers prompt reports, to-the-point commentaries and in-depth analysis on advanced technologies.”

Phil Keys, US Correspondent for NE, approached me for this project. He wanted an expert opinion on how to build a better interactive user experience for the home theater. I have known Phil since my days at Sling and Mediabolic and working with him was a real honor and privilege.

I applied user-centric design principles to grade the Logitech Revue and point out its strengths and weaknesses. My review was then translated and printed up, along with photos of the Logitech UI. Here is a small sample of the article.

Thanks to Nikkei Electronics for the opportunity to deliver Smart TV best practices to a global audience.

Why the Mac App Store is Game-Changing

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Apple today launched their “Mac App Store”, something I must admit I didn’t fully “get’ at first.  Originally I assumed it was simply a dashboard-like interface for easily porting iOS apps to OS X.  It’s not, it’s far from it.  It’s actually solving one of the biggest problems plaguing “typical” computer users – downloaded and installing software.

This conversation should sound familiar to anyone under the age of 40 who has parents who use computers.

Me: did you try out [[[SOFTWARE]]] yet?

Parent: I couldn’t get it to work.

Me: huh, why not?  it’s pretty simple to use.

Parent: I don’t know, it’s just not on the computer, I don’t know why.

Me: did you install it?

Parent: Yes!

Me: okay, so what’s the problem?

Parent: Not sure, after I went to their website I never could get it to open.

Me: what happens?

Parent: It always tells me its installing.

Me: so you ran the installer?

Parent: yes.

Me: so what’s the problem??

Parent: I have no idea, fix it next time you come over.  How are the kids?

The reality of the world is tons of folks are downloading, but the successful installation and execution of software on computers is an utter mess.  And yes, even on OS X it’s a mess – why would I want to drag into the Applications folder?  Why isn’t that automatically done?  How do things get in the dock?  Etc.  The App store fixes all of this, and fixes it well.

With the latest OS X upgrade, the App Store appears in the dock automatically.  Upon launching the user is required to sign in to their Apple account (probably the worst part of the experience, as it should just pull in iTunes account info), then they can download/install/run new software as effortlessly as they can on an iPhone/iPad.  The new app automatically installs and adds itself to the dock – that’s it.

One other “oh, sweet” moments I had while perusing the App Store?  No, it wasn’t Angry Birds (seriously, yawn much? it’s an okay game, but it’s time to move on.  it’s like after they started airing “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” seven nights a week!).  It was finding iMovie ’11 available for individual purchase.  This is another important move, as Apple is unlocking the previously bundled iLife (and iWork) suites.  Perfect for folks like me who like the features of one ’11 app but not the other (in my case – I don’t want iPhoto ’11 yet).  This creates a lot of opportunity not just for Apple, but for other software vendors seeking to “break up” packages and make incremental additional revenue from the extras.

It’s not perfect, by any means.  There’s still no solid UNinstall, which is a big missing part (try AppZapper – thanks @MG!). For example, I can’t sort by Ratings, there’s no ability to preview apps, etc. The store is so simple that at times it truly feels simplistic. Some categories seem odd (does weather need a whole category?) and others completely under-developed (games? one category for ALL games?).  I’d also like to see screenshots get replaced with screenflows/video demos.  But that’s about the entirety to my complaints at this time, and that ain’t bad all things considered.

Since the original dot-com explosion, the tech industry in general has avoided new consumer-facing software like the plague.  Half (or quarter) baked Web ideas or apps get funding out the wazoo, but tell an investor that there’s downloaded software involved (worse yet – a plug-in), and they run for the hills (well, not really, since they’re probably on Sand Hill already, but that’s just a weird wording thing).  It’s funny that we’ve needed the success of the mobile app market to revitalize the “old fashioned” software market, but that’s exactly what the Mac App store is going to do.

If there’s one thing we can truly say the App store “killed” today, it’s the traditional installer.  And rest in peace, but you won’t be missed.

Quick Thoughts: buying a new TV, cord-cutting, smart TVs, delicious shutdown, online privacy

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I'm on a Truck. With a TV.

Buying a new TV:  I came to the realization that my manroom, while great, was inadequately equipped with a mere 50″ screen.  So I decided to go big (then go home).  Spent a long while researching options, ended up with the Samsung PN63C590, Samsung PN63C8000, and the LG 60PK950 as my top three choices.  Two of these three had 3D and Internet connectivity, the other was just a big honking 63″ screen.  I went with the big honking screen and skipped on the frills.  I realized I don’t much like the current 3D experience in theaters or homes (makes me a little nauseous), and the likelihood that I’d want to frequently watch 3D at home was pretty low.  Regarding Internet apps, I’m not really impressed with most of the available apps, and I’m not very convinced that the current platforms won’t be obsolete within 12-18 months (looks like I’m not the only one who feels that way on both topics).

In a nutshell – the TV is awesome, manroom now operating at near-100% efficiency.

Cord-Cutting: So my new TV is great, and also huge.  And there’s an interesting downside to it being huge – the gaffes of lower quality video are worse than ever.  As soon as everything was hooked up, I turned on the NHL HD channel (sports channels seem to be at the top of the quality spectrum in the HD channel lineup).  All I could see were the jaggies and other terrible aftereffects of the highly compressed video Comcast delivers to my house.  So how did I make my TV look good?  I turned on my Xbox!  I think this “faux” HD experience is something that actually could cause cord-cutting in 2011 – far more than Smart TVs will.  More on this over on the Stage Two blog.

Smart TVs:  Speaking about Smart TVs (the continuity in this post would astound my high school English teacher), I read an article on “What Smart TVs need to Succeed” with the highlights being: Unlimited Content Access, Extensive Use of Apps, and Immersive Experience.  I think I understand that perspective, but I also think it is missing the boat.  People tend to compare Smart TVs to Smart Phones.  If you recall, the first several *years* of smart phones were some truly terrible products.  But when it comes to phones, that’s “ok” because they are low cost (relative to TVs) and owners expected to replace them in fairly short cycles.  TVs, on the other hand, are expensive and consumers tend to replace infrequently (unless of course they have awesome manrooms that warrant the upgrade).  A generation of underwhelming Smart TVs will likely put a damper on the entire industry.  What Smart TVs really need to succeed is great, intuitive, television-like user experiences.  And I will be blunt by saying none of them do it right now.  And I don’t see this changing for at least the first half of 2011.  Which is why we’ve got a new thing cooking in Stage Two’s labs, all about making a really good TV user experience.  Will show ya next year.

Del.icio.us shutdown:  Just like everyone else in the Web 2.0 era,  I used Delicious for about 45 minutes back in the mid 2000’s, then stopped.  I know there’s still a solid fan base, and a lot more people found it a lot more useful than I did, but Yahoo’s let it languish since about 6 months after purchase.  Other than buying a better domain for it, it doesn’t seem like the company cared about it one bit.  And now they are shutting it down.  I think this is pretty terrible, and as I tweeted… “irony of delicious shut-down? bartz could’ve made only $46.2M last year and still had a full-time TEAM on *improving* the product…”  Shame on them.  I’m sure there’s some great spreadsheet somewhere that shows why its the smart business decision, but the audacity of the entire Yahoo situation is just plain infuriating.  Highly recommended reading: Thomas Hawk’s letter to Carol Bartz.

Online privacy:  The entire concept of privacy is up for grabs these days.  Some feel it’s dead, some feel it must be protected at all costs.  I sit closer to the “protect my privacy” camp, and as a result am encouraged to see the government taking some form of action.  Unfortunately, I don’t know how much actual good it will do, but since the industry isn’t self-regulating, I have to assume it can’t make things too much worse.  I remain convinced that the mega-millionaires who run the companies who effectively control our online privacy have the incorrect moral incentives in place, especially considering they can pay their way out of the issues the rest of us face.

Microsoft To Launch Tablet at CES: Again

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If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, then Microsoft needs a straitjacket.

How many times has Microsoft tried a tablet? At least four, over the past eleven years. How many times have they failed? Four. Today the New York Times is reporting that Microsoft is taking aim at the iPad and will introduce several tablet PCs at CES next month.

People familiar with this device said it will run the Windows 7 operating system when in landscape mode, but will also have a layered interface that will appear when the keyboard is hidden and the device is held in a portrait mode.

[SNIP]

The applications will not be sold in an app store, as with the Apple iTunes model, but Microsoft will encourage software partners to host the applications on their own Web sites, which will then be highlighted in a search interface on the slate computers. It is unclear if these applications will be ready for C.E.S. as most are still in production.

Making hardware is not that hard. Almost anyone can build a tablet computer these days. Making a great tablet is very hard. I’d even wager that the team behind the iPad looks at their product and all they can see is future improvements. That said, it is clearly the best tablet we’ve got so far. It is hard to replicate the iPad’s usability. It is hard to capture intuitive and repeatable gestures. It is hard to capture Apple’s mindshare and market position.

It seems these days that Microsoft is reacting instead of leading. Their fundamental approach is “iPad is not that good and doesn’t meet the needs of business professionals.” And that plan just isn’t working out for them.

What happened to the Microsoft that invented Windows? Remember Start Me Up? What happened to the company that built Office and the Xbox? I want to root for Windows and Microsoft. I want Microsoft to deliver simple, beautiful technologies to people.

And just like I have for the past few years, I’ll be skipping Ballmer’s CES demo. Not that I don’t want to be there. It is that I feel like I have been there before. I will hope for something amazing. I would love to discover that I missed the best keynote ever. But instead, if it even mentions Microsoft one note, someone should have a straitjacket on hand just in case.

Why Trying To Destroy Online Information Is A Dumb Idea

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Trying to put a muzzle on the internet is dumb. The nature of the web encourages users to create and share material easily and information wants to be free.

As we should have learned from the Streisand Effect, attempting to remove online information can have unintended consequences. That is, trying to delete “unwanted” websites only draws more attention to the content on said websites and makes the person attempting to stifle information look like a complete tool.

Take the recent outcry against Wikileaks. In attempting to remove the informationfrom the web, critics have only amplified the reach of the Wikileaks website. And even if the site is shut down, the information on the site can never really be destroyed.  Further, if it goes away, there’s a more-than-average probability that something else will return in its place, only less individually targetable.

Remember the end of Star Wars (the real one, not the one with the racist puppets), Obi Wan Kenobi tells Darth Vader that he can never really be defeated. If Wikileaks is struck down, it will only become more powerful than we could possibly imagine.

The recording industry and Napster serves as a classic example of what not to do online. The RIAA saw their files getting shared by music enthusiasts and immediately tried to shut down the system through legal means. The results? The RIAA did get Napster to go legit. They also then birthed distributed clones, now in the form of bit torrent sites around the world.  Only this time they are unstoppable.

What if, instead of the world of RIAA lawsuits, underground file sharing and billion dollar iPods, there was a different industry response? What if the music industry had worked with music fans to share content (for free and for profit), connect people with bands that they love and help individuals, music and technology converge in a positive, fun way? Isn’t that vision preferable to the world we inhabit today?

What is true for the record industry specifically is also true for the internet in general. When information appears that outrages, shocks, angers or offends you, the answer is not to destroy that information. This only leads to more websites, prolonged lawsuits and increased attention for the unwanted content.

Instead, individuals and organizations should recognize that information – once it is online – is almost impossible to erase. A better engagement strategy works with established structures of information and tries to compromise, collaborate and adapt. Do not try to forcibly take things offline.

I don’t exactly know what “should” be done with WikiLeaks.  I just know that taking it down is unquestionably part of the path to the Dark Side.

Quick Hits: Sony Remote Monstrosity, Early Revue Reviews, Android #1?, iPhone-to-TV, Congrats Foundry Group!

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Sony Remote Monstrosity
Engadget got a sneak peak of the Sony/Google TV remote control.  It’s either hideous, or simply an internal prototype used for them to develop with.  I wish it was the latter, but bet it’s the former.  Over on the Stage Two blog (I’ve been doing a lot more blogging there recently, it’s not just us pushing client work, give it a read!) I go into specifics of what’s wrong with it, and also tangible steps on how to improve it.

Early Revue Reviews
Saw a quick hit on CrunchGear today, I’m in complete disagreement with everything they say that makes it “good”.  My highlight nitpick is their closing remark: “As we said before, the real initial value will come from the camera that Logitech is selling for video chats on the TV.”  The real value of a $299 device is that you can hook up a $149 camera to it to do video chat?  Really?  That is going to move the needle on Revues?  Hint: no way.

Elsewhere, my friend Harry calls it the Swiss Army Knife of Internet TV products.  I’d say that’s a great analogy, but follow up with my biggest concern: the TV is the one place we don’t want something like a Swiss Army Knife. See, those Knives are handy to have around in a pinch, but in every way fall short of being really useful for a long period of time.  Yes, it’s cool to have a philips head screwdriver in your back pocket when camping, but I wouldn’t put together IKEA furniture with one, that’s when you need the actual screwdriver – aka the single purpose product that works really really well.

I’m maintaining my position that Google TV 1.0 is not ready for consumer primetime, and neither the Sony nor Logitech solutions are compelling to the mainstream.  Sorry to my friends who work at those companies, but this just isn’t what it needs to be for a big win.

Android #1?
I saw one of those big flashy attention-grabbing headlines today “Android Most Popular Operating System in U.S. Among Recent Smartphone Buyers”.  Beyond my general disdain for Android (though I will freely admit the HTC Incredible running Android 2.2 is leaps and bounds ahead of my old Eris, but still has lots and lots wrong with it – for another time), I hate headlines like these.  What would be MORE interesting?  What is the popularity of Android specifically on AT&T?  That’s at least apples-to-apples comparison (pun fully intended). Of course Android is going to hit the top spot, this is inevitable, not interesting.

Now what would be interesting?  Well, since this is arguably all about a landgrab for developers to adopt platforms, how about an analysis that talks about which platform is making the most money to developers? Until Android/Google makes the process of buying (and selling) apps easier for everyone, the money is still flowing to Cupertino.

iPhone-to-TV
The newest version of Netflix for iPhone enables watching the movies on a TV, rather than on the phone itself.  Very cool, nice novelty feature.  But when I see a phrase like “Who needs an Apple TV now?” I get reminded of how often people in the industry aren’t thinking these things through very much (no offense to the author of that particular blog post).  To be clear – a phone, even an iPhone, does not replace a TV dedicated device, now or ever.  Wrong device for the wrong purpose.

What if you need to make a phone call mid-movie?

What if your phone runs out of battery?

What if your phone drops the signal (apparently those iPhones are known to do that from time to time)?

What if you want to put the movie on, then sit 8-10′ away from the TV, and, say, pause or rewind the movie?

etc.

Congrats Foundry Group!
Just wanted to take a second to congratulate Brad, Ryan, Jason, and Seth at Foundry Group for raising their latest fund! I’ve had a long history with the guys and a lot of their investments, and since they are one of the few VCs who love the consumer gadget space, wanted to give them a little shout out here.  Keep up the great work, and keep finding the cool gadgets!

Excited About Judging pre-CES i-Stage Event!

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It’s been official since a tweet last week, but the i-stage website was updated today to reveal this year’s judges/mentors, and I’m extremely excited to have my name in the list.  Other judges this year are Richard MacManus (founder of ReadWriteWeb) and Frank Gruber (founder of TECH Cocktail), and previous judges have included Blake Krikorian (my boss and mentor at Sling Media, currently living mostly off the grid), Ryan Block (founder of GDGT, former editor-in-chief at Engadget), Natali Del Conte (CNET), Ross Levinsohn (Fuse Capital), Jeff Pulver (involved in pretty much everything), and more!  Needless to say, I’m honored to have my name in this list of esteemed technologists!

This is neither my first foray with i-stage nor first judging with CES.  Last year I was a judge for the prestigious Innovations awards.  Two years ago I was working with team Boxee when they went to, and subsequently won, the inaugural i-stage event!  This plus the three “best of CES” awards I’ve been involved in, and I’d say I’m quite excited about being on the other side of things this year!

We haven’t seen this year’s list of contestants (still two days to enter), but I’m excited to see what’s up-and-coming in gadget land (especially since I like to think I’m already involved with most of the new stuff – so this makes it even more intriguing).  I’ll put together some thoughts and recommendations on what contestants should (and should not) do to increase their odds at winning (and while cash is nice (kidding!!!!), I’m more interested in impressive technology and great product experiences).