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Tag Archives: comcast

Quick Thoughts: buying a new TV, cord-cutting, smart TVs, delicious shutdown, online privacy

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I'm on a Truck. With a TV.

Buying a new TV:  I came to the realization that my manroom, while great, was inadequately equipped with a mere 50″ screen.  So I decided to go big (then go home).  Spent a long while researching options, ended up with the Samsung PN63C590, Samsung PN63C8000, and the LG 60PK950 as my top three choices.  Two of these three had 3D and Internet connectivity, the other was just a big honking 63″ screen.  I went with the big honking screen and skipped on the frills.  I realized I don’t much like the current 3D experience in theaters or homes (makes me a little nauseous), and the likelihood that I’d want to frequently watch 3D at home was pretty low.  Regarding Internet apps, I’m not really impressed with most of the available apps, and I’m not very convinced that the current platforms won’t be obsolete within 12-18 months (looks like I’m not the only one who feels that way on both topics).

In a nutshell – the TV is awesome, manroom now operating at near-100% efficiency.

Cord-Cutting: So my new TV is great, and also huge.  And there’s an interesting downside to it being huge – the gaffes of lower quality video are worse than ever.  As soon as everything was hooked up, I turned on the NHL HD channel (sports channels seem to be at the top of the quality spectrum in the HD channel lineup).  All I could see were the jaggies and other terrible aftereffects of the highly compressed video Comcast delivers to my house.  So how did I make my TV look good?  I turned on my Xbox!  I think this “faux” HD experience is something that actually could cause cord-cutting in 2011 – far more than Smart TVs will.  More on this over on the Stage Two blog.

Smart TVs:  Speaking about Smart TVs (the continuity in this post would astound my high school English teacher), I read an article on “What Smart TVs need to Succeed” with the highlights being: Unlimited Content Access, Extensive Use of Apps, and Immersive Experience.  I think I understand that perspective, but I also think it is missing the boat.  People tend to compare Smart TVs to Smart Phones.  If you recall, the first several *years* of smart phones were some truly terrible products.  But when it comes to phones, that’s “ok” because they are low cost (relative to TVs) and owners expected to replace them in fairly short cycles.  TVs, on the other hand, are expensive and consumers tend to replace infrequently (unless of course they have awesome manrooms that warrant the upgrade).  A generation of underwhelming Smart TVs will likely put a damper on the entire industry.  What Smart TVs really need to succeed is great, intuitive, television-like user experiences.  And I will be blunt by saying none of them do it right now.  And I don’t see this changing for at least the first half of 2011.  Which is why we’ve got a new thing cooking in Stage Two’s labs, all about making a really good TV user experience.  Will show ya next year.

Del.icio.us shutdown:  Just like everyone else in the Web 2.0 era,  I used Delicious for about 45 minutes back in the mid 2000’s, then stopped.  I know there’s still a solid fan base, and a lot more people found it a lot more useful than I did, but Yahoo’s let it languish since about 6 months after purchase.  Other than buying a better domain for it, it doesn’t seem like the company cared about it one bit.  And now they are shutting it down.  I think this is pretty terrible, and as I tweeted… “irony of delicious shut-down? bartz could’ve made only $46.2M last year and still had a full-time TEAM on *improving* the product…”  Shame on them.  I’m sure there’s some great spreadsheet somewhere that shows why its the smart business decision, but the audacity of the entire Yahoo situation is just plain infuriating.  Highly recommended reading: Thomas Hawk’s letter to Carol Bartz.

Online privacy:  The entire concept of privacy is up for grabs these days.  Some feel it’s dead, some feel it must be protected at all costs.  I sit closer to the “protect my privacy” camp, and as a result am encouraged to see the government taking some form of action.  Unfortunately, I don’t know how much actual good it will do, but since the industry isn’t self-regulating, I have to assume it can’t make things too much worse.  I remain convinced that the mega-millionaires who run the companies who effectively control our online privacy have the incorrect moral incentives in place, especially considering they can pay their way out of the issues the rest of us face.

Is cord-cutting real?

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We’ve all heard about the recent declines in cable subscriptions as of late and the digerati are breathlessly declaring this to be the ear of “cord-cutting”. The real test of the cord-cutting phenomena will be once (or if) the economy ever picks up. As stated:

Neil Smit, president of Comcast Cable, acknowledged in a recent call with investors that some customers had dropped cable for free signals. Company executives also said they expected business to rebound with the economy.

That may very well happen.

Thus far, despite all the brou-hah-hah, the relative number of cord-cutters has been small and it has mostly been low-margin customers, the type of customers cable companies don’t want anyway.

You could reasonably assign those customer losses to the crappy economy and anticipate customer increases once things get better. If that happens, then “cord-cutting” has been a fad. But if the downward trend in customer subs (or the upward trend in cord-cutting) continues when (or again… if) housing and/or employment picks up, then the cable industry is in trouble.

I’m a fan of the cord-cutting movement (as a cord-cutter myself), but I’m skeptical about how real this trend is in the mainstream.

There are a number of wild-cards out there besides just the economy. For example, high-profile channels like HBO start making their own moves could nudge cord-cutting from fad to trend:

(Time Warner Inc. Chief Executive Jeff) Bewkes has suggested recently that HBO could be sold directly to consumers on the Web.

HBO going online is a big WOW.

Also, the big question is of course sports, and how/if you’ll be able to access outside of a cable subscription.

The question ultimately comes down to money. Yes, Netflix may have almost 17 million subscribers, but under its current deal Starz, a key supplier of content  to Netflix, makes only 15 cents a subscriber, compared to the $2/subscriber it makes off of cable companies.

Until content owners and distributers start making that kind of coin, marquee content will remain elusive on cord-cut TVs, which may squash the cord-cutting revolution.

Does TiVo make Products or Patents?

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For all intents and purposes, TiVo “invented” the DVR. Actually, they didn’t, but it’s a fair statement that they first successfully commercialized it and brought the concept to the massess.  Further, they did it with competition (ReplayTV), which is often the exact thing that stalls new consumer technology adoption.  The company’s product was loved by those who used it (I had the original 14-hour Philips version), and switching from TiVo to another DVR was a painful process for those of us who had to go through it (for whatever reason).  But switch we did, as the company slowly got pushed out of dominance by failing to keep a healthy relationship with DirecTV (and Philips, Sharp, and others), and all other cable/sat co’s offered their own (mediocre at best) versions of the DVR.  And when a consumer is given the choice of an effectively “free” DVR (an additional $5/mo = free in a purchase decision-making process when already spending $50-$100 on a bill) versus buying one with an upfront fee and a monthly tally, it’s a no brainer.

Over the past few years, the company has slowly settled from being the leader in both installed base and most evolved product into a bit of obscurity with the mainstream (other than potentially owning the brand-category, which doesn’t do much good for running a business).  Their Series 3 and other launches in the late ’00s didn’t bring in a new rush of users, and last week’s launch of the Series 4 (aka TiVo Premiere) is at best a late entry in a crowded market, and at worst a product that massively missed the mark with modern day expectations. On the date of the launch, the company’s stock moved a little bit upwards.  Not too shabby, but also not too interesting.

The next day, however, proved much more interesting, with a 61% increase in value:

What happened? In a nutshell, federal courts found TiVo’s patents held up against a Echostar/DISH claim.

I’m not a lawyer, nor do I generally support the present-day patent system, but that’s not really the point here. What is more relevant is that TiVo appears to have drifted from being a pioneer in the digital home to being a patent player. Instead of betting on the strength of their product team, innovation, and marketing, they are now betting on their lawyers.  And I think that’s a sad state of affairs.

The digital home is a noisy, confusing place, fraught with terrible products. Further, most of the products I’ve seen on the radar or know are shipping soon are also now extremely impressive.  In other words, there’s tons of opportunity today and in the future to build (and monetize) exciting products.

I’d love to see TiVo make a change in direction here.  It’s time for the company to act like a startup again, and show real innovation like they once did.  Truth be told I know the TiVo Premiere is unquestionably a better product than my Comcast DVR (a truly awful product).  But as has been said many times before, and is unbelievably relevant in the convergence space, Good Enough is the biggest enemy of Great products. It’s going to take a heck of a lot more than “slightly better than the last version” for TiVo to regain a leadership position.  The company needs to rebuild it’s team with new innovators who can build on the legacy, and stop investing in “me-too” minor touches, “dongles”, and other things that won’t move the needles. CableCard? Still? Come on.

If companies like Apple, Palm, and so many others can attempt to reinvent themselves, I think TiVo can too.  Please try.