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Category Archives: Gaming

Apple to Developers: Shall We Play A Game?

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Apple announced new MacBook Pros today, and I think Michael Gartenberg addresses about 40% of the importance with his post on it.  The other 60% (maybe more), in my opinion, is about gaming.

Gaming’s long been a thorn in the side of Mac users.  In a previous era the Mac platform represented only the most miniscule of computer purchasing, and even today it’s just a fraction of all computers sold.  That is, until you look explicitly at the home and high-end laptop markets, at which point the story gets more interesting.

Last month it was announced that Steam (a gaming platform) was coming to the Mac.  Today, inside their official announcement for the new MacBook Pros they explicitly state:

More than twice as fast as the GeForce 320M, the powerful new GeForce GT 330M provides incredibly smooth, crisp on-screen graphics for the most demanding 3D games, creative software and technical applications.

Video games are an $11 BILLION dollar industry. That’s more zeroes than I can type.  And almost none of it is on the Mac platform.

Yet.

I’m a big believer in betting on trends.  Further, if I apply our typical analysis as to determining market viability for gaming on the Mac, here’s how it looks:

  1. Does the infrastructure already exist?
    It does now. Macs have sufficient hardware and a mature enough OS to enable immersive gaming (a requirement for non-console games), as well as well-integrated connectivity and media sharing for casual gaming.
  2. Does the product tie into a rising trend?
    As stated above, “heck yeah”.
  3. Is there already an “acceptable” solution to the problem?
    No, the only way to play games on the Mac today is either (1) use BootCamp or (2) play Web-based games.  Minorly acceptable for some, but clearly not touching on that $11B number.
  4. Is there a perceived need?
    Quite clearly, people like to play computer games, and there just aren’t many for the Mac. So yes.
  5. Is there a want for the product?
    Gaming is one of those rare “need/want” industries.  Some basic googling will find evidence on both sides of “are computer games a waste of time” but let’s simply agree it’s debatable.  It most certainly is a high “want” and has tons of emotional and cultural significance these days.

I believe Apple has laid all the groundwork necessary to entice game developers to really pay some attention to their platform.  They’ve showed them a clear revenue path through iPod/iPhone/iPad distribution models, and the Mac is the final bridge to cross.  The only downside whatsoever is the amazing costs that go into modern game production, with budgets reaching $100 million, and climbing.  But considering a $50-60 price tag, and popular games selling 1-3 million (or more), the possibilities are unquestionably there.

Game on!

Thoughts on… Dell Buying Palm, Facebook Vanity URLs, Building43, Project Natal, Content Consumption

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Kinda enjoying the “wrapup” post concept.  I feel less pressure to blog, and take a bit more time to collect my thoughts (instead of jumping on board any given meme as it happens).  Would definitely like to know from my reader(s?) if this is harder content to consume than more frequent, shorter posts.

Dell Buying Palm

This rumor’s been floating for a while. At the Building43/TechCrunch party I was told it was a certainty, though the NY Times thinks it’ll never happen.  At this stage in the mobile game, I think Palm does need an acquisition if it wants to survive as a big player, either that or needs a drastic overhaul/downsizing until they think like a startup again (which really is the position they are in). Dell’s a decent suitor, though I’d doubt they’d really escalate the brand to the level it needs.  I’d rather see a merger with Motorola’s mobile group, as they have the true infrastructure needed to compete at the high stakes table, and could really use an injection of creativity and new technology (no more RAZRs guys).

Facebook URLs

This whole week Facebook did a replay of Oklahama in the late 1800s (including allowing “key journalists” in sooner than us lame users). The stats last night were impressive, though I’m still sitting here scratching my head on the whole thing a little.  I’m assuming FB plans to do some serious SEO work, enabling those who grabbed useful terms like “carpenter” (no, I don’t know that guy) to generate a little business out of them. That said, some useful terms like “sanfranciscosushi” are still up for grabs, so enterprising folks should put their creative hats on and get going.  I didn’t take my name yet (having a unique name makes that kinda easy) because I just don’t get the value to me personally.  Googling Jeremy Toeman always gets me, as does the first page or two for just Toeman.  Not to say I didn’t try a few names to see how they’d feel…

gefiltefish

nah… not quite right.

Building43

My friend Robert Scoble started working at Rackspace (the place where we host Legacy Locker, btw) a few months back, and he’s been dropping hints about this “Building43” thing for a while now.  This week he formally unveiled it during the TechCrunch 4th birthday party down in Palo Alto.  First and foremost, thanks Robert and Mike for some amazingly good BBQ food – oh, and your contributions to the tech industry blah blah blah ;). So Building43 is designed as a resource for entrepreneurs and big companies alike to participate and gain feedback and insight from the tech community at large.  It’s an ambitious goal, and I wish them a lot of luck.  My biggest advice to them is to really focus on the user experience, as right now I found the site a little confusing to navigate (despite my personal familiarity with all the technologies they are using, like FriendFeed).  If it’s tough for me to find things, I can’t imagine what it’s like for those new to it.

Project Natal

Microsoft introduced “Project Natal” at E3, and there’s a rumor circulating that instead of thinking of it as a new component to the Xbox 360, it might be its own console. I love the idea of using motion capture as a video game controller (or remote control or any other kind of interface), but I think that’s where my love ends. As an idea.  Here’s the issue – it’s not good enough if it’s 99% accurate. Why?  Because the 1 time in 100 that you shoot instead of duck, or block instead of jump, or whatever mistake it makes is going the about the last time you play seriously.  Fundamental to every good user interface is absolutely perfectly reliable controls, with proper feedback mechanisms to the user.  With a motion controller, the moment the game doesn’t do what you wanted it to do, it’s all over.  Trust is lost, and the “magic moment” is replaced by dislike, then eventually anger. I saw a tweet that I think encapsulated the issue perfectly: “Project Natal is headed to the uncanny valley.”

Content Consumption

I recently realized I don’t read any blogs anymore.  I do a lot of searching.  I follow some folks on Twitter and/or FriendFeed.  But I almost never just go to sites like Engadget or TechCrunch nor friends of mine like Dave Zatz or Michael Gartenberg and just read.  And based on looking at the analytics for many of my clients’ web sites, I’m thinking I’m very much not alone.  There’s too much content, and just not enough ways to organize it.  If I were an enterprising lad, I’d be spending a lot of time figuring out how to help people deal with content overload in a very useful manner.  The right tool needs to combine all the potential sources a user wants, and give lots of ways to customize and filter it.  Google Reader isn’t enough, nor is FriendFeed, nor is Facebook.  I’ve got a hunch there’s a lot of opportunity for an excellent “get signal out of my noise” service, and it’s probably something people would pay for.

Have a great weekend everyone, I’m heading back to toil in the garden where I can be really productive.

Five Random Thoughts: Beatles Rock Band, Social Gaming, beeTV, CrunchPad, Palm Pre

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I’ve been told I’m a ‘long format blogger’ – most of my posts are fairly long (typically overly so). As a result my posts tend to take a while to write, which means I need to block out (too much) time to get them up.  And I seem to have less and less free time all the time these days, plus by the time I’m writing something, it seems like a thousand others have already written something related to what I’d write.  While I know I shouldn’t feel biased by others’ writings, at the end of the day I feel that if I’m not saying something original, what’s the point?

So in an effort to get some thoughts across, I’m going to try to do the occasional “roundup” post on a few topics all at once.  This is the first of said posts.

  1. Rock Band, Beatles Edition
    I’m not sure which game I’m more excited about, this or Modern Warfare 2.  I love The Beatles music, and I love Rock Band, so that’s a huge win. Plus I like the idea of a non-hard core version of Rock Band.  If you haven’t seen the preview, check it out here:

  2. Social Gaming
    The new enhancements to the Xbox Dashboard include integration with Facebook and Twitter.  I have a feeling most of the features will be overkill and rarely used by the majority of Xbox owners, but there is a clear improvement needed to integrating social networking and gaming.  The key missing element in my opinion is an easier way to find your friends within the Xbox Live experience.  Hopefully direct integration with the services I use for networking will help me find and connect with people in my gaming world.
  3. beeTV
    A startup raised another $8 million to provide recommendations for watching TV shows.  This is now 10 consecutive years of me watching companies try to enter this space and fail.  Further, these guys are doing deals with cable and set-top companies, two segments notoriously perilous for relying on for a business to succeed.  Who knows, maybe these guys will find that magic touch, but my hunch is (a) there isn’t a real problem in this space, and (b) making a sustainable income stream will be extremely challenging.
  4. Crunchpad
    I applaud the crunch team for their efforts on building the Crunchpad.  But I have concerns over the device itself.  First, the market – I don’t see a web tablet (at any price) effectively replacing a laptop for simple surfing, it doesn’t make sense.  Second, the usage – it’s either going to be tiring to hold it up, or it goes into the lap, which again, brings the laptop back into the scene.  Ultimately I see it as a “bread machine” type of gadget (purchased, used for a little while, then slowly migrating out of daily life until it gets regifted). I’ll be curious to see what comes of it.
  5. Palm Pre
    Reviews are saying it’s solid. Sprint’s said they anticpate a shortage. I believe both statements are accurate.  But I also believe it will never supplant the iPhone or BlackBerry, and I also believe the initial orders placed by Sprint are in low volumes relative to those products.  I think the product is probably going to be pretty solid, but I think it’s too-little, too-late for Palm.  I know back in the day I didn’t think people would switch to AT&T for the iPhone (I was wrong), but I can’t imagine iPhone people switching to Sprint for the Pre.  Maybe I’ll be wrong again…

Well, that’s my first attempt at a “ripped from the headlines” kind of post.  Feedback, comments, and spirited debate are very welcome.

Holiday TextExpander Giveaway Contest

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You may remember our post showing how to automate Bit.ly using AppleScript
and TextExpander. Since then, TextExpander has been bumped up to version 2.5, and in doing so SmileOnMyMac included our bit.ly URL shortening script in the new release.

To celebrate we’re having a holiday contest and giving away two TextExpander licenses!

Contest the First:

TextExpander has one of the cheekiest registration screens around; it offers up data on how many times you’ve triggered an abbreviation, how many characters have been replaced, and how much time you’ve saved typing. The first license will go to the reader who guesses the number of characters (as of the time of posting) that TextExpander has spared me from typing. The Price is Right rules apply: closest guess (without going over) wins.

TextExpander Register Screen

Contest the Second:

This started off because I came up with a new snippet; now it’s your turn. The second license will go to the reader who suggest the best idea for a new snippet, as judged by the LiveDigitally team. Extra points for contest entries with working code snippets. (You can download the trial version to get started.)

Submit your guesses and ideas in the comments (you can link to a blog post if your idea is too long to fit.) The contest deadline is midnight on Wednesday, December 31st, and we’ll announce the winners in the new year. Good Luck!

Is Online Gaming Creating Citizens or Monsters?

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There’s an interesting article up on MSNBC right now regarding kids and online gaming.  Some highlights:

Game experiences “can be quite valuable from the standpoint of civic and political engagement.”

Video games can provide hands-on learning opportunities for kids that can be much more meaningful than reading a textbook. For instance, you can play a mayor in “SimCity,” and get a close-up look at what it takes to build and maintain a community.

Helping a newbie get his sea legs in a game simulates the real-world experience of volunteering. And playing games online can expose kids to people with worldviews that differ from their own — in positive and negative ways.

Many of the of the 1,102 teenagers polled said they’d encountered hostility, racism and sexism while playing online — stuff that can certainly happen offline too, says Kahne.  “Just as some playground experiences are enriching and some are unpleasant for young people, one can imagine that that would be true in the game world.”

I’ve played games “online” for two decades (I used to play Populous against people over dial-up back in the 80s).  I’ve played pretty much every category of game online, from real-time strategy (aka RTS, like StarCraft or Command and Conquer) to first-person shooter (aka FPS, like Doom, Quake, or my current fave Call of Duty 4) to casual games (like Hearts, Spades, Scrabulous). And while I can’t claim to be excellent at any of them, it’s certainly clear that I’ve wasted many many hours of my life so far.

After reading the MSNBC article I couldn’t help but wonder how much video game playing the researchers had done.  First, comparing any aspect of SimCity to running real cities is like comparing playing Call of Duty 4 to, say, war. I’d say the most practical skills I’ve gained from video games include my abilities to use a bucket of water to catch rapidly dropped bombs, I’m pretty damn awesome at shooting down evil catpeople in spaceships, and I’ve always been more cautious around @’s, D’s and L’s than I am near o’s and g’s (bonus points to anyone who can name all three games).

Also, the comments about helping newbies are very domain-specific.  There are some games where this is true, but I’d say the majority of n00bs (as they are actually called) pretty much have to fend for themselves or have a real-life friend come over.  Playing Call of Duty 4, for example, has near-constant mockery of anyone making basically any mistake, or even using certain weapons.  Playing RTS games, on the other hand, you are more likely to get some constructive help/tips, but this generally comes long after being demolished in the first 10 minutes of the game.  I am not a World-of-Warcraft player, but I’d assume that’s an easier place to make friends.

I think it’s also pretty clear that the researchers haven’t spent much time on Xbox Live, which is the den of monsters as far as terrible online behavior is concerned.  I’ve never heard such a quantity of hate-filled kids (and sometimes adults, but mostly kids) in a room, and it’s clearly language they’d never use off-line.  There’s something very wrong about the amazing level of anonymity the Xbox Live experience presents, as I sincerely doubt we have a generation of evil-minded children running around the country.  But I do ponder the particular home scenarios for these kids, and wonder about their unsupervised and more importantly, uneducated time online.

A few years from now my wife and I will have to decide about what we’ll be comfortable with in our home regarding Internet use, which will specifically include gaming.  I think it’ll be important for us to teach responsibility and general codes of conduct.  I’ve never felt the ability nor desire to become a racist arrogant sexist moron while playing video games online.  But maybe that’s because when I was a 14-year-old gamer, I didn’t have 35-year-olds to beat up on all day and all night.

How Verizon Could Improve Their Mobile Gaming

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As a long-time Verizon Wireless customer (originally back with GE!), I must say I’m generally quite happy with my service. My bill is a tad high, but then again we have 2 phones with lots of minutes, a Family plan and full access in the US and Canada, thus offsetting our home phone bill (~$10/mo for a landline). During my daily busride, I like to play games on my phone (Samsung SCH-U740 – awesome). I think Verizon may have created one of the best platform potentials but laden it with one of the worst user experiences I’ve ever seen.

In my phone menu, going to Games, then Get New App gives me a fairly easy set of options. I can instantly buy one of their top 2 games/promotions, or browse through categories to find what I want. The categories are pretty self-explanatory, and that’s about where the usability ends.

Picking a game brings you to a screen with three options: Subscription price, Unlimited price, and Info. On a rare occasion there’s also the option for a Free Trial, but we’ll ignore that for now. Let’s presume that I pick an interestingly named title, for example “Stranded: A Game of Survival” ($2.99 Sub, $7.99 Unl). Clicking “info” shows me the following text:

You awake Stranded on a mysterious island with other survivors. You discover that not everyone can be trusted. Will you escape? Without a price plan that includes an unlimited data feature, you will incur either (depending on your plan) airtime charges at applicable overage rates if you exceed your minutes bundle or megabyte (“MB”) charges of $1.99/MB for downloading the application. Some applications may result in additional charges for sending/receiving data during use. [Size:479KB]

First of all, I don’t know anything about the game! This category (strategy games) includes things ranging from Command and Conquer to Triple Scoop Twist, so there’s no information about gameplay. Is it a RTS? An RPG? A puzzle? Etc. Interestingly the website has nice screenshots and much more text describing the game itself. Why isn’t this available in the game page on the phone when I’m considering a purchase?  Even the website descriptions are lacking the specifics I’d want to know to make a decision.

Second, the data usage warning is terrible. I get that they want to warn me about a potential charge, but how is the text they use going to help? I don’t know if the app actually uses airtime/minutes to play, or if that’s just for the download itself! I understand it is a lot of extra work to figure out a user’s plan in real-time (well, no, I don’t *really* understand it, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt), but a simple clarification of the English would be swell.

Finally, I think a lot more free trials would sell me a lot more applications. I’ve downloaded several of the ones that give me a free level to play, or a few minutes of playtime, and have actually purchased one game as a result. I am a big believer in putting some bait on the hook, as opposed to just throwing a hook in the water and saying “here fishie fishie fishie!”  Especially considering Verizon’s Get-It-Now system is a complete walled garden, I don’t think there’s a way to “steal” a game even if I wanted to!

For the record, I’ve purchased the following games: Sudoku (good version too), Diner Dash (fun, but a bit repetitive), Call of Duty 4 (I’m such a sucker, though it was simple and fun), Transformers (not much more than meets the eye), and Townsmen 3 (meh).  I’d really like to have a very simple Ultima-style RPG (think Ultima 2 or 4) that can be played in short, bite-sized amounts of time.  It doesn’t look like I’ll be able to figure it out even if I find one, but one can always hope…

Six things you should know about Grand Theft Auto IV before you commit to a work week’s worth of gaming

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The epic stories of early reviews of Grand Theft Auto IV are already legend: stalwart game reviewers, shipped to hotels in undisclosed locations, are given nearly a week of time with the most hotly anticipated title of the year. They spend dozens of sleepless hours inflicting upon themselves the sins of protagonist Niko Bellic and the depraved Liberty City.

When they emerge, tired and unwashed, and with a nagging feeling that their next ride is only a broken window and a couple of twisted wires away, they rush to compile glowing homilies to their week-long captor. The results, Legions of perfect scores, could fuel a multi-year study on Stockholm Syndrome. Were the scores on metacritic posted in the same way that the Boston Red Sox use to update their scoreboard at Fenway Park, we’d be suffering a national shortage of green placards that read “100 OUT OF 100!”*

GTA IV Fenway Scoreboard
“These scores – you make them good, OK?”
(Source materials from mlb.com and gamespot)

To their credit, and I speak as a veteran with 28 hours of play time and a 42% completion rate, the glowing reviews aren’t just hyperbole. Grand Theft Auto IV presents by far the most immersive environment ever rendered in a video game. There are few other gaming experiences that I can recall that had characters this well-written, a story this clever, and an option to just putz around that, in many cases, is a lot more fun than the actual storyline.

For those who haven’t made the purchase, it’s natural to be skeptical of the unprecedented outpouring of love for GTA IV. There’s good reason for it, because as great as Grand Theft Auto IV can be, there are plenty of things that players, sucked in by the lure of the golden reviews, should know before hopping off the boat with Niko. Disclaimer: these should not be considered reasons NOT to buy the game, but just a friendly “heads-up” to my fellow gamers who may not quite know what they’re getting into. Minor, non-story related spoilers abound:

  • Do you have a fear of commitment? There’s a geek syndrome that I call “Mulderscullyphobia,” the fear of getting trapped by the latest X-Files-ripoff TV series. The new show usually features a massive conspiracy/mystery that you KNOW you’ll have to follow every episode, whether the show runs for one season or ten, because once you start, you NEED to find out what happens. GTA IV inspires similar fear. Even though most reviewers say the game will take 40 hours, plan on a lot longer, especially if you’re new to the series. At four hours a night (you don’t have a job or family, right?), you’ll be in for at least two solid weeks of playing. And trust me, you’ll be stuck – this game is the epitome of “just one more mission, and then I’ll come to bed.”

    • Happy Family
    Daddy, please don’t play the hooker game again tonight!
    (Source materials from www.azmortgageguru.com)

  • The immersive, expansive world is not immediately all available: Like with most GTA games, the most tantalizing locations are initially out of reach – all the bridges heading west are barricaded and protected by the Liberty City PD. I tried to run the barricade, and they called out the Special Forces. I tried to sneak through (hint: get your car on the El train track), and they called in Special Forces. I even tried to swim across the equivalent of the East River, and they called the Coast Guard to take me out. You’ll be able to cross eventually, but not until you put in 13 – 14 hours.
  • You’re going to spend a lot of time getting places: It’s Grand Theft Auto, and it follows the standard Grand Theft Auto scheme: get a mission, drive across the map to the mission, fail mission, retry mission. After the sixth time around, you’ll manage to succeed, and then drive all the way back to where you started. Even with a built-in GPS map, it gets very tedious very quickly.
  • But what about my needs?: Your virtual criminal buddies are all like insecure high school girls: pay them enough attention, and they’ll love you. Turn down requests to play darts a couple of times, and all of a sudden you’re out of the club. And since it’s in your best interest to keep them happy, you get to spend plenty of time with awkward bowling, darts, and pool simulators. And that doesn’t even include managing your in-game love life, which requires constant calls, dates, and wardrobe changes (my real life significant other’s favorite part of the game, incidentally). Nothing gets you in the gangster mood quite like choosing between the Russian hat and the Army hat.

    • Roman and Niko
    No darts? How about pool? Bowling? What about a strip club? Why won’t you LOVE me?
    (Source materials from amazon.com)

  • Didn’t I just do this mission?: Kill drug dealers/mobsters/bikers in a shootout that becomes disgustingly easy when you find somewhere to take cover. Chase someone in a car (or motorcycle), and shoot him. Perform a coup de grâce on a major mob boss. Lather, rinse, repeat.
  • How am I supposed to finish the game when I can both watch TV and surf the internet in the freaking game?: I was even clicking on links in the spam, for God’s sake.

If you haven’t bought Grand Theft Auto IV, and think that you can handle the time commitment and repetition, then it offers the best action and story combo since Bioshock. Just don’t be blinded by the brilliant gleam of all those perfect 100s – you’re going to have to work to get everything the game has to offer.

*For those that notice, yes, I know that metacritic adjusts everyone’s score to a scale that tops out 100, even if the reviewing site only rates on a scale of 1 – 10 or 1 – 5.

Editor’s Note: this is written by Dan Rubin, one of LIVEdigitally’s new reviewers.  I’ll have a “welcome” post up soon enough, but in case you miss that one, welcome Dan!!

Xbox Live Needs a Seniors League (30+)

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I was playing Call of Duty 4 (COD4) last weekend during my post-CES recovery time, aka 12 hours of Xbox intermixed with buffalo wings and an hour of hockey. When I first went online to play, I pretty well expected to get a whuppin’, and a whuppin’ I received. That evening I played with my 12-year-old cousin in Montreal 1v1, and he steadily handed my ass to me over and over again. I think Xbox Live needs a “Seniors League” for people over 30.

First, the league would allow you to opt-out, so for the hardcore gamers, you can go play with whomever you like. But for the rest of us, I think it’d be a very good system. It would allow me to stop listening to the utter depravity that occurs in the chatroom (more foul, disgusting, racy language I have never heard in such a short time). Actually, on that topic for a second, parents – hello, your teenage children need some attention and by attention I don’t just mean warm hugs and telling them how they’re so great all the time.

More importantly, it might give me a way to play the game with the other stumbling buffoons like me. Those of us who are pleasantly surprised when we actually get a good shot off or two, where a dominating streak is defined as two consecutive kills, and where we don’t spend half the game looking at the Xbox controller wondering just how on Earth that guy did that!?!?!

The one game that probably doesn’t need the Seniors League is Rock Band, whose online multiplayer is about the coolest thing I’ve seen. It’s the only game I’m aware of that has no competition, nothing but fun/pride. And let me tell you, when four people are playing together, and really “jamming” (real musicians: don’t hate us, we’re just having fun), it’s a good time. Hitting star power on a song together? Priceless.

If the Senior League is too much to figure out, how about just a Rookie Zone, which works on a game-by-game basis? After anyone reaches a certain score and/or hours playing, they get bumped into the regular area. If you need an incentive, I’m pretty confident that you’d sell more games. Huh? Listening now, I see? Well, go ask your prime gamer demographic (oh wait, that’s me!) about their Xbox Live experiences. Probably a lot of frustration across the board. As a terrible player, playing online is often too annoying, rarely as fun as it should be. More fun = more Xbox Live time = more Xbox time = more interest in new games = more money for MSFT.

Oh, and to the jerk who marked me as ‘unsportsmanlike’ I’m gonna guess this refers to my frequent accidental grenading of my own teammates. Maybe if you spent more time playing as a team and helping us old fogies out, we’d play better and stop doing it. I’m just too terrible to even play unsportsmanlike! You’ll understand in 20 years, kid.

Technology Predictions for 2008

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I’ve seen lots of Top 10 lists on the subject, and I’ve decided to try a different format for my own prognostications. Instead of by rank, I’ll do a list by industry.  Also, I have way more than 10 predictions to make.

TV Technology

  • Every major cable company will increase it’s rates by more than 3%. Nobody will complain, and our government will (again) fail to protect us from them.
  • A resolution above 1080p starts appearing in demos and labs, I’d predict a bump up into the 4000 vertical lines space.
  • Bluray and HD-DVD continue to duke it out while consumers continue to not care.
  • One of Hulu, Joost, etc get integrated into the Xbox 360 and/or PS3.
  • Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future.
  • Anyone who is not a telephone company that tries to launch an IP-streaming set top device has a very rough year.
  • Despite near-constant predictions of their demise, TiVo makes it through another year, possibly getting acquired (by DirecTV, Comcast, Netflix, Blockbuster, or someone out of the blue like Amazon or eBay).

Portable Devices That Are Not Cell Phones

  • Zune 3.0 launches. It’s very very good. Further, iPod’s market share dips, although they still have an increase in overall unit sales (in other words: the pie gets bigger faster than their sales do). That said, a new iPod is even more betterer than all previous versions, making everyone who recently bought a prior generation a wee bit annoyed, but gosh that Steve Jobs is so charming they just don’t care. After all, that’s technology!
  • At least two major camera vendors introduce integrated wifi cameras, but no more than one uses an open service, the rest have some proprietary, closed, annoying-to-use system. Ideally one of them buys Eye-fi.
  • Digital picture frames continue to grow in market share, but still don’t “tip” into the mainstream.
  • More companies introduce e-book readers despite general malaise in the category. Kindle II is launched with mild improvements.

Enterprise Services

  • I have no clue, I don’t follow the space. Hello, this is a consumer tech blog!

Computers

  • Apple’s new laptops will include an ultramobile, a tablet, and a “desktop replacement” OR a “gaming model” (they may combine the first two). Enhancements will include a card reader, 3G access as a built-in option, and new gestures. Market share continues to climb.
  • Microsoft continues to spin about how amazing Vista is. Michael Gartenberg’s observations are probably the most poignant as to why it isn’t.
  • Asus or Dell acquires or merges with one of HP, Acer, Toshiba, or other “meh” PC maker.
  • Sony continues to make subpar Vaio laptops. And for the last time (I think) in 2007: don’t buy the Sony Vaio VGN-SZ4xx series laptops, they are just plain terrible. I’ve now had the chance to voice my discontent directly to the Vaio PR team (at Ruder Finn) who have yet to write me back on the topic.
  • Nobody makes my awesome dual-screen laptop concept, thus leaving me the opportunity to make zillions one day.

Social Networking

  • Facebook continues to get backlash from the media and tech community, meanwhile its user base continues to skyrocket. Further, they hire another 1000 people, yet only make modest improvements to the site itself. I’d add a 33% chance that they “pull a Netscape” and go after the desktop or the browser or some other place they really don’t belong.
  • Randomly pick some names from the huge list of other social networking sites and some of them merge.
  • Adults who didn’t grow up with social networking services experience burnout of being bitten by zombies after a few months, and many stop checking in four times per day. Those who went to school during the Facebook era continue to complain about all the old fogies (like me) polluting their sacred resting ground. They also continue to put radically inappropriate pictures of themselves online, blissfully unaware of the interviewing process.

Mobile Tech

  • A few Android-powered phones ship, but not as many as the tech community would like to see. Again showing why the Razr can utterly dominate the market despite a closed architecture and terrible user interface.
  • Apple launches the iPhone 3G, the iPhone nano, and the iPhonePro. Ok, I’m not 100% sure on the third, but I am betting on the first two. Also, one of these new phones comes unlocked OR on a carrier other than AT&T.
  • Some major lawsuit occurs between a carrier and either a cable company or a broadcaster, all about mobile video rights. All parties involved appear as nothing but greedy to outsiders.
  • Something new comes out in the phone space that’s more astounding than the iPhone. It’s possibly: uber-small, has a radically better battery life, does something funky like synchs with the Wii, or works with all US carriers.

Gaming

  • With lots of stealth, a new console comes to market. It might only be a moderate shift from a prior model, or possibly be a whole new entrant.
  • Rock Band 2 and 3, and Guitar Heros 4, 5, 6, and “Eddie Van Halen” editions come out, however nobody licenses the Harmonix engine to make “Jazz Trio”.
  • Someone comes up with a really impressively new concept for the Wii. Good odds, however, that they wrap it inside a crappy game.
  • More really amazing HD gaming occurs, continuing to drive HD adoption faster than the meager channels the cable companies try to placate us with, despite the fact that they raise prices again. Did I already say that?

Web Services/Misc

  • A wide swath of “Web 2.0” companies will go dark, primarily out of an inability to either figure out a business model for their product, or an inability to successfully market their service outside of the Bay Area.  They will quickly be forgotten and replaced by new ones with even goofier sounding names like Froobooloo.com.
  • No major Wimax deployments occur.
  • The digital transition date looms, starts creating a lot of media hype a la Year2000 mania.
  • RFID continues to be a fun topic for the media, but all that happens is Walmart continues to make small vendors spend loads of money for the privelege of selling there.
  • Bloggers fret about not being recognized as “press”, yet continue to spend too much time/energy gossiping about other bloggers, an activity the general public remains disinterested in and doesn’t give extra respect/credibility for.  This circular logic is baffling, I know.
  • We lose even more rights to big media, because few Americans are willing to take even the tiniest steps to do anything about it.  PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG (start here)!
  • I still don’t Twitter.

See you in 366 days to see how I scored!

Game wanted: Lite Rock Band

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The only copy of Rock Band on KauaiI totally love Rock Band. It’s awesome. My wife plays. My friends play. It’s crazy addictive. Gameplay is good, fun to play, etc etc. I got to play a sneak preview several months back, and it’s the only game I’ve ever pre-ordered for my Xbox 360 (for those curious, the last time I pre-ordered a game it was Ultima VI for my Commodore 64). So I like it. But as with all things I like, I have gripes.

First up, I am already a little tired of the songs available. Too much hard rock, not enough “fun” songs. I understand the game is called Rock Band, and I know that the kids today like the louder music. But it could use some more lite rock. It could use some ballads. It could use some more classic rock. Here’s some songs I’d love to get/download (incidentally, I am not trying to impress anyone with my music tastes. Don’t like? Don’t care. I do, and it’s my blog):

  • anything by the Beatles or U2
  • The Doors “Break on Through” (or for creepy factor, “The End”)
  • Don Maclean’s “American Pie”
  • Green Day’s “Time of Your Life”
  • Dave Matthews Band “Crash Into Me” or “Ants Marching” (would need a violin instrument tho)
  • John Mellencamp “Jack and Diane”
  • some 80s music – The Reflex, Tainted Love, a little Bryan Adams, some Kenny Loggins, some Journey, Def Leppard,
  • etc

My only real gameplay gripe is on the difficulty of the songs. I understand in World Tour it needs to have cascading difficulties, but I think the game is missing a true Party Mode (although this code is invaluable to unlock all the songs for fun – doesn’t count to your score). When my friends who have never played before come over we inevitably play the same first batch of songs. I’m stuck on guitar so I can revive my fallen bandmates should they fail. It’s a bit repetitive. I think a party mode that has an intro-level version of each song is essential for catching more users.

Next up is the between-game controls. Every controller is ‘live’ which means if you are picking a song while your buddy tries to explain to his wife how to use the guitar, two seconds later you are back in the main menu. Annoying! The ‘leader’ should have complete control up through the ‘select difficulty’ screen.

Lastly, the system for dealing with profiles is a mess. Playing the Band World Tour forces you to make new profiles for each person who wants to play. Playing Solo World Tour requires new characters for each instrument. So bizarre and so frustrating. My friends watched on as I created 3 profiles and (accidentally) 5 characters just to try to have the World Tour let us unlock new songs (until I discovered the above code). Really annoying.

That’s it for my complaints, ultimately it’s an awesome game (so much so that when I had problems with my Amazon pre-order, I purchased the only copy on the island of Kauai during my vacation last month). Playing live with other folks online is super-fun, and anyone who wants to jam, get in touch!

Beautiful Katamari: an addict in 20 minutes

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I first saw the Katamari game when a TechTV reporter put it “head to head” versus the Slingbox a few years ago. I didn’t quite understand the comparison, but the game looked silly, yet interesting.

Using the awesomeness that is Xbox360 Live with free game demos, I downloaded a preview of Beautiful Katamari two weeks ago. Despite the 3 minute time cap to the demo, I played it quite a few times, and my wife tried it too. She described it as “the stupidest game she’s ever seen. but a lot of fun!”

I bought it yesterday at Best Buy, and didn’t get a chance to play it until late at night. I was exhausted and ready for bed, but couldn’t possibly let my brand new game go unopened! So bleary-eyed I put it in, and played through a couple of levels and some online multiplayer games.

Awesome awesome awesome.

The multiplayer was especially fun, although we had some frequent bandwidth problems. I’d like to see a bit more detail on the bandwidth issues so I could understand exactly what the problem is (me or someone else). That is my single flaw with the game.

It’s fun. It’s silly. It’s family-safe, yet not too stupid that adults won’t enjoy. The Engrish is great (I have no idea if it’s intentional or not, but either way). The graphics are nice, not outstanding, but the gameplay is so superb it’s irrelevant.

The best part about the online multiplayer? Instead of losing to 12 year old kids who shoot me in the head while I’m still figuring out how to aim, I can lose to 5 year olds who can roll the ball real good.

Guitar Hero 2 marketers should hire Ben

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If you don’t know Ben, or that unbelievably good 8-year-old Guitar Hero 2 player (as I like to call him), watch this video (or view his channel and watch them all):

Now I’ve improved my skills since the last time I tried playing, but just watching him play gives me some kind of stomach pain.  I recall kicking some C64 butt at around that age, but this is some savant-level stuff.  Check out this interview with Ben for more about him and his l33t gaming skills.

There’s a lot of blog gossip coverage today about YouTube paying highly watched users (I recommend: YouTube blog, Shelly Palmer, Om Malik, TechCrunch, Andy Beal), and I agree with Om’s comment:

Whichever way you look at it, this is a good development for content creators who are looking to turn a labor of love into a full time gig.

In fact, this whole concept mirrors what I blogged about yesterday, where the true empowerment of the video marketplace is dictated solely by content creators and advertisers/sponsors. 

SNC14148 guitar hero 2 truckRedOctane, the company who produces Guitar Hero 2, generally does a great job promoting the game. Trucks roll around the country for people to try it out, and the game is consistently sold out in Best Buy and other retailers.  Cowbell Hero is an instant classic, and other fan-based activities abound across the net.

If I were in RedOctane’s marketing group, I’d be in touch with Ben and his family.  We’re only a few weeks away before school’s out for summer, and I’d jump on the opportunity to spend a week videoing the kid, and pay him handsomely for some fun commercials.  I’d top it off with a “can you beat Ben?” contest at the end of the summer (after camp, but before school starts up again).