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Monthly Archives: January 2010

What Did Jobs Do?

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In proper form,I shall now review my own predictions of the iPad from my first two posts on the subject (parts 1 and 2).  Let’s start with…

What I got wrong:

Productivity Apps
I said: “Unlike the Microsoft approach to “ecosystem” – where everything other than the Xbox is able to view and edit Excel spreadsheets – my hunch is the iPad is all about lifestyle, the Internet, and entertainment.  I’d guess there’s a native version of Safari, some kind of simple email and calendaring, and that’s about it.”

In reality: native new version of iWork!

Reaction: I’m pretty surprised by this move. I certainly see the case for casual work-like content creation (make a simple budget, add some numbers, etc), but figured this would be much more of an afterthought. Further, without an input mechanism (camera – more below) beyond the touchscreen, I don’t quite feel the product “fits” as a content creator.

Augmented Reality/Content Creation
I said: “I’d predict there are several native applications and services that provide very cool augmented reality features.  I’m firmly in the camp of one or more cameras on the iPad, and I think Apple will include one or more fun exploits of the concept from the get-go.”

In reality: zero cameras.

Reaction: This is unquestionably the most questionable aspect of the iPad (like how I did that?). There’s one in the Nano, but not here? Just doesn’t make sense to me, nor most of the people I spoke with during and post the event.  My colleague Jim Schaff thinks this is effectively a beancounter’s decision – the numbers were run that showed adding a camera could/would cannibalize from either MacBook or iPhone sales, and thus the camera was dropped.  Other folks I’ve spoken with theorize it’ll show up in a rapid revision of the product (something I don’t agree with, as they had no specific reason to rush the iPad to market, and could easily have waited until it was working).  My other theory here is that it’s not a hardware issue, but a product/software complexity issue, and the overall impact of adding a camera would have created too significant a product development challenge in the short term.  Gotta crawl before ya run.

Hardware ins/outs
I said: “It’ll have the iPod connector, USB, DisplayPort and an SD card slot.  A webcam is highly probably, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an IR interface as well.”

In reality: custom dock connector, USB, no other ports.

Reaction: I’m disappointed at the lack of SD card reader, especially in context of the photo frame use-case.

What I got right:

The name
I said: “iPad”.  😉

Heavy software emphasis
I said: “Everything that ships on the iPad will be designed completely to work in a touch fashion, or it won’t be included period.  I’m still torn between whether it’ll be a version of OS X or a version of the iPhone OS, but either way, the device will ship with oodles of applicable software, custom-built to be great in gesture, touch, multi-touch, or even by looking at it the right way.”

Closed app infrastructure
I said: “I expect the iPad will sit somewhere between the iPhone, with individually manually approved apps, and the OS X platform.  Based on the reports today that some apps are supposedly already being run on the iPad (of course these reports prove absolutely nothing, as it could either be an updated iPhone with a new OS, or simply another “labs” product running around campus.  but where would modern tech blogging be without unsubstantiated rumor circulation and amplification?) , my leaning is a differentiated version of the iPhone OS, with more leniency in app approval, but still not open. Many will complain, many will profit, and many will love it.”

Single carrier support
I said: “And since the former isn’t very Apple-y, it’s much more likely there’s only one carrier involved” and “It’ll have 3G services built-in.  I’d hope for Verizon, but that limits Apple to its international possibilities.  And there’s no way they’d waste the money on two different 3G chips.”

Note that I’m surprised, but not shocked, that it’s still just AT&T.

Media Slate as product definition
I said: “So picture a device that’s sleek and sexy, can play back movies, TV shows (including live TV), Internet radio (lala), show pictures/slideshows, play simple games (app store), and be otherwise completely entertaining.  It connects from anywhere, has enough internal storage to last a nationwide flight, and is all about fun.  Further, it comes with numerous context access options, including free services, a la carte purchasing/rentals, and subscription options.  It probably also has a Webcam and native iChat support. I’m fairly bullish on this concept, as it seems to fit in with the Apple iLifestyle very well, and makes for a useful product.”

Parting thoughts:

I’m actually going to write another blog post with my specific thoughts on the iPad (and I’m the only guy doing that!).  My quickest reactions are that I’m impressed with the price point, but shocked about the lack of camera.  I think they *will* sell millions of units, and it’ll be more compelling to a more mainstream audience than many others think, though I still find flaws in the overall offering.  In reality, this device is actually a very good alternate “home computer” for the average person who only needs web surfing, email, media playback, and entertainment. It’s certainly more compelling than a Netbook.

For some final fun, here’s the blog post I wrote predicting roughly this device. Of course that was back in July 2007.

Twitter in action: Live coverage of the Apple event

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Per yesterday’s post on Twitter needing better demos, here’s a very (IMHO) useful way to follow live coverage, from multiple perspectives, using Twitter. I’ve created a “list” of people who are either live at the event, or following it closely. These people are more likely to tweet only about the Apple event during it. I’ve now taken the list, and embedded it here in the blog as a widget, to show the content. This means you, if the you in question is not a Twitterer, are now actually using the service. Enjoy.


As an aside, one of the “gotchas” about lists will be watching what happens to this same group of people’s content tomorrow. While there was a moment in time where they are united in function and content, within minutes it will become disparate conversations having virtually nothing to do with each other. Which is, unfortunately, another problem with trying to find common ground in Twitter. If you’d like to experiment more with lists, you can visit Listorious, a web site devoted to nothing but Twitter lists…

Will Normal Folks Ever Use Twitter?

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I’ve been thinking about this for a while, but I saw a post on how most Twitter users do not use the service, and thought I’d expand some thoughts. The majority of my friends do not Tweet. Nor does my family. They do not care about it. They see “follow us on Twitter” during TV broadcasts and don’t know why they should. Further, they are not getting more interested despite an increasing barrage of the service.  If anything, they are even less intrigued to the mystique that is Twitter than ever before.  Note that some of my screenshots contain vulgar language – nothing compared to Xbox Live banter, but you’ve been warned.

Here’s the “first impression” a user gets by coming to twitter:

Independent of all other things, this doesn’t really give any insight as to why people are going crazy about Twitter. If I’ve heard that Oprah and Ashton are tweeting, and my favorite football player, and it’s the latest hottest thing, and all I see is a static page with a bunch of random-seeming terms, I’m not yet compelled.  Further, the major tagline “Share and discover what’s happening right now, anywhere in the world” isn’t exactly right.  If you make a search like “how are things in haiti” you get a very bizarre set of responses that do not inherently answer the question.  Knowing how to search in Twitter is important, yet isn’t taught.  Showing hashtags also overly geeks up the screen, and in a bad way.  To continue this “new user experience”, I clicked on “pregnancy pact” (was curious) and saw the following:

This didn’t really explain anything to me, just showed me, well, the exact type of garbage the average person does not want to be reading.  It’s not even gossip/fun, it’s just *weird*.  Sure there’ll be the occasional clever gem, but for the most part, especially with popular topics, it’s becoming a haven for spam or utter drivel.  Also, as an aside, Twitter should not display foul language to users who aren’t logged in – some people still prefer to keep vulgarity elsewhere. It actually gets even worse if you look at trending topics:

Huh?  No thanks.

Now how about the new user experience from the perspective of following someone they were “told” to follow.  The @CNN account shows recent CNN headlines, as it should.  However, this does not exactly “add value” to someone’s life, as finding CNN headlines is relatively easy to do.  How about mega-celebrity @Oprah?

Not exactly new and interesting, and definitely not “real-time”. All we’ve learned is she seems to like Avatar, uses capital letters inappropriately, and then includes a bunch of things that look like gobbledygook.  Why? Because once you do get “into” Twitter, you start using acronyms, links, and vocabulary that make texting look downright poetic.  What’s a ow.ly? Who’s RT? It looks foreign and daunting.  It’s as if there’s a huge “insider’s” club, and if you don’t get it, you feel awkward and alienated.

Finally, there’s looking at what happens once someone actually does sign up for Twitter and use it.  They are presented a seemingly random list of “suggested” users.  Following these people creates a stream of equally foreign and incomprehensible Tweets, likely about topics that aren’t interesting to anyone other than a small group, and again, in an exclusionary, not inclusionary, manner.  Trying to catch the eye/ear of others is near-impossible, and building a following outside one’s small social circle is unlikely to occur.  More stats:

The average Twitter user has 27 followers, which is down from 42 followers in August, according to the new study. About 25% of users have no followers at all; that’s up from 20% with no followers last August. Upward of 40% of users only have one to five followers.

So what should Twitter do about it?

This is the million billion dollar question.  The company is already in danger of reaching the backlash phase inevitable in modern society (get too big/successful and you become the enemy, deservedly or not – see Starbucks, Google, Wal-mart, etc).  Some say it’s already started.  I don’t think so, as I think we haven’t even come to the point where people care yet.  That said, my non-Twitter “regular world” friends are already telling me they’re tired of the inundation of “follow us on Twitter” they see during TV shows, Web sites, etc.  This is a problem, and Twitter must solve it to get as big as they want to be – otherwise this whole thing will get outed as a “early adopter only” toy, and valuations will come crashing down.  And if it starts to crash, even a little bit, it probably won’t recover – nobody wants to hang out in the club that was cool 3 years ago, but only your dad goes to now.

In my opinion, Twitter needs to thoroughly overhaul the new user experience.  Forget “suggested users” and focus on “suggested uses“.  Part of the reason the media like Twitter so much is it is actually useful for doing their job.  They can publicize their content rapidly and directly, can interact with both readers and companies, and make reporting/blogging/journalism a component of how they use Twitter. For celebrities, be they Web-only or real ones, it’s good for personal branding not to mention a nice ego-feed.  For events which occur in real-time (Hudson plane crash, Haiti earthquake, elections, etc) it’s a good way of finding out information as it occurs (though obviously fraught with error and rumormongering).

Notice how we’ve still ruled out “normal people living normal lives”?  There’s zero relevance to the average person who wants to live in private.  Even as they dabble at lifecasting, there’s no reward, as the game logic to using Twitter is fundamentally broken. Unlike FourSquare, or new site TheSixtyOne, there is no form of achievement system.  If anything, you are measured up against people with millions of followers, a completely unattainable goal.  Here’s the opposite: the very first thing I saw on thesixtyone:

Even though the above shot has some confusion, it’s so much closer to telling me something to do, how to do it, and how I benefit from it.  Twitter could easily do the same: “find 10 sports figures (or bands or politicians, etc) and follow them” or “retweet (RT) three people with less followers than you” etc.  This system could scale up pretty high, and create a much more interesting hierarchy for the “twitterati” as well.

The folks at Twitter are clearly smart (and yeah, they got a little lucky along the way, but that’s part of being smart IMHO), and clearly know they need to do something, and soon.  Twitter needs to be able to positively convert new users into active users, and absolutely must work on the “why do I care what someone’s having for lunch?” reputation the site has.  I believe an achievement type of system that rewards “good behavior” is the right way to do it (not to mention major user interface/experience overhauls).  As it stands now, I’ll return to my prior conviction that Twitter has not proven themselves as a viable platform, and must still navigate extremely well and carefully to be the billion dollar company everyone wants them to be.

Exclusive Photo: Steve Jobs and his Tablet

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Steve Jobs was quoted as saying “This will be the most important thing I’ve ever done”.  Now we know why!

ps – yeah, I am not good at Photoshop.  I don’t care, was just trying to have some fun.

pps – in case someone somehow interprets this as me bashing Steve, I am not in any way doing so.

ppps – in case someone thinks I’m “linkbaiting” – get real.

pppps – in case someone thinks some other negative thing here, COME ON! lighten up people!!!

Debunking: Those are NOT photos of the Apple Tablet

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Saw on Mashable that some designer posted “actual” photos of the “tablet”.  I’m no photography expert, but they looked wrong from the beginning.  I can’t say I’ve 100% proven it, but I’m pretty sure they are not correct.  Here’s the photo (source):

Looks pretty, right?  Yup, and props to the guy who did the photoshopping to make it work.  My first issue with the picture was the basic reflection of the tablet in the screen.  I’m pretty sure there’s just no way the Apple logo from the MacBook desktop background would be so bright that it would reflect not just onto the tablet screen, but then be visible in the tablet’s reflection back onto the MacBook itself.  Here’s specifically what I’m calling shenanigans on:

Just to take it a step further, I grabbed my camera and took a couple of shots of my MacBook and my Droid Eris, just to see if I could capture a similar effect.  I couldn’t even come close – here are two pics, one without and one with flash (I presumed the flash would help create the reflection):

Even without the camera, there’s literally nothing I can do to get a reflection of my phone onto the glossy screen of the Macbook.

Updated: just found someone who knows Photoshop well enough to prove the fakery.

As a last point, if you were going to leak some photos, wouldn’t you have one in someone’s hand?  This is just a weird way to do it – but that’s only my opinion.  I’ll wait to see it in Steve’s hands on Wednesday.  Which I’ll have to do remotely, cuz I don’t get invited to such things. 🙁

What Wouldn't Jobs Do?

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The other day I surmised on what the iPad (still calling it that – it’s the shortest option) might be, as a device.  With only three days left to go prior to launch, I still find myself pondering the “how do they build something at the right price point that’s useful beyond the context of novelty and/or on the commode?” question. While many are going gaga over pretty much anything that could come out, I in my stubborn fashion still just can’t conceptualize what we are about to see.  Of course I’m effectively ready to pre-order it, but I still can’t piece it all together in my head.  So as the follow-up to what might the product be, I thought I’d amble on about what I don’t think we’ll see…

Hardware without software
One of my general rants about Tablet PCs is the lack of compelling software.  Sure Microsoft splashed some “touch features” across the OS, but for the most part it’s a trainwreck.  Apple won’t do this. Everything that ships on the iPad will be designed completely to work in a touch fashion, or it won’t be included period.  I’m still torn between whether it’ll be a version of OS X or a version of the iPhone OS, but either way, the device will ship with oodles of applicable software, custom-built to be great in gesture, touch, multi-touch, or even by looking at it the right way.

Niche or otherwise narrow market scoped
I stated in my last post that a possible product category is just a heads-on Kindle killer.  I’d characterize this as a small opportunity – yes, it’s been great for Amazon, but the market for “better than Kindle e-readers” is small. The only small product Apple still ships is the Apple TV, which they’ve characterized as a hobby product (and rightfully so) from day one.  Granted they haven’t actually said anything about the iPad yet, but their PR machine is too smart to let this much buzz build up and fall that short.  Then again, if this thing doesn’t come with an espresso maker and difribulator, some people are going to be disappointed.

An open platform

Even though the modern day Mac world is based on Unix and has a wide developer base with tons of open source projects, it’s pretty safe to call Apple a company that chooses the proprietary path more often than not.  And while this might frustrate many, the benefits of typically stable products are certainly appealing to the masses.  I expect the iPad will sit somewhere between the iPhone, with individually manually approved apps, and the OS X platform.  Based on the reports today that some apps are supposedly already being run on the iPad (of course these reports prove absolutely nothing, as it could either be an updated iPhone with a new OS, or simply another “labs” product running around campus.  but where would modern tech blogging be without unsubstantiated rumor circulation and amplification?) , my leaning is a differentiated version of the iPhone OS, with more leniency in app approval, but still not open. Many will complain, many will profit, and many will love it.

Focused on productivity
Unlike the Microsoft approach to “ecosystem” – where everything other than the Xbox is able to view and edit Excel spreadsheets – my hunch is the iPad is all about lifestyle, the Internet, and entertainment.  I’d guess there’s a native version of Safari, some kind of simple email and calendaring, and that’s about it.  I think Apple doesn’t have any interest in trying to build buzz or sales into the corporate world, and will instead stay close to their home turf with consumer appeal.  I’d go so far as to say it’ll be fun to use, and the new user experience will center entirely around delivering entertaining content.

Support every mobile carrier
Okay, this is one of those “I think I’m right, but what if they really figured it out???” things (Google didn’t really, and they’ve got some smarty folks too).  Supporting all the US carriers is cost prohibitively “impossible” – you’d need a minimum of 2 different antennas/chips and the relationships in place.  Doing this adds to cost, which is transferred somewhere (consumers), and for the most part neither manufacturers nor consumers like to have “wasteful” componentry.  Which means it’s much more likely there’s either multiple SKUs, or only one carrier.  And since the former isn’t very Apple-y, it’s much more likely there’s only one carrier involved – or none at all (which makes some sense, if this were 1997).  Further, this gets messy when we consider Verizon, the best network in the US, as their CDMA platform is unused in Europe, a place where Apple sells a lot of stuff.

I could probably add a few more pages of the what I don’t think will happen variety, but they start getting less interesting in my own opinion (5 colors of iPads! – not).  I did have one more “I’ll bet they do” item, which is…

Embrace Augmented Reality Even More
Lots of hot trends in the technosphere, from Twitter to FourSquare, from App Stores to Cloud Computing.  But Augmented Reality is actually an interesting one, has more usefulness than others, and is right up Apple’s alley.  I’d predict there are several native applications and services that provide very cool augmented reality features.  I’m firmly in the camp of one or more cameras on the iPad, and I think Apple will include one or more fun exploits of the concept from the get-go.  I don’t know if it’ll be as awe-inspiring as PlayGunman, our amazing lasertag on iPhone game, but hopefully it’ll be close (disclosure – I’m extremely involved in it. also, I’m joking around – if Apple can’t make our game look like Adventure on the 2600, I’d be stunned. and it’s not like our guys are slackers, but it’s freaking Apple).  Apple will definitely do some kind of boundary-pushing move with this device, and I’d hunch that augmented reality is one of the areas they could truly make us think a little differently.


What Would Jobs Do?

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If you follow gadgets or new tech and you are not aware that Apple is introducing “something” next Wednesday, you are either (1) my wife or mother or (2) awaking from a long long sleep. Now along with virtually anything Apple does, or contemplates doing, or doesn’t contemplate doing but others contemplate on their behalf, the rumor mill on this “iPad” is just out of control.  Not a day has gone by this week, and probably the week prior, where numerous stories on TechMeme centered on the speculated device.  My turn.

I’ve tried to think about this entirely with the following perspective:

  1. Tablets, as we think of them today, suck (unless you are in a very specific niche, or perhaps a crazed fanboy).
  2. Steve Jobs does not like to ship suck-y products.
  3. Apple does not focus on niche markets.
  4. Some of the rumors we’ve seen are likely correct (a million monkeys on a million keyboards…).
  5. Apple will still likely do one or more things nobody’s even hazarded a guess at.

So with that in mind, what is Apple up to?

Some more assumptions:

  • It’ll have 3G services built-in.  I’d hope for Verizon, but that limits Apple to its international possibilities.  And there’s no way they’d waste the money on two different 3G chips.
  • It’ll have a “built-for iPad” program at launch.  Still nothing from Droid on this front, but you can bet that Griffin, Case Logic, Kensington, and all the other players will have cases and other accessories coming to market extremely soon.
  • It’ll have the iPod connector, USB, DisplayPort and an SD card slot.  A webcam is highly probably, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an IR interface as well.
  • It might have some clever method of charging (magnetic induction).

Here are some thoughts on the product itself, in no particular order:

  • Sub $300 e-reader + tablet: How about if Apple directly takes on the Kindle, and throws in a great version of Safari, and a Verizon 3G connection?  They sell it at cost, give it a beautiful touch-screen, make it all iPhone-y, but keep it as a simple device.  At this price point it does compete with the iPod Touch, technically, but not in reality, as they are such vastly different products.  We know from the Kindle’s success that there’s a market for the category, and we know that the Nooks and Sonys of the world won’t stand a chance versus Apple and Amazon as the category leaders.  In the “what seems kinda possible and stands a chance at selling in the millions” way of thinking, this is definitely a contender.  Not as sexy as some other options, but possible.
  • Detachable MacBook screen: I’ve come back to this one a few times, as it seems to fit “the world we know” fairly well. What if instead of it being a whole new device, Apple upgrades all MacBooks to have touchscreens that are detachable.  In other words, the keyboard part of the laptop comes off.  It would require some fairly sophisticated engineering to pull off, as the bulk of the computer itself is in the keyboard area, but if anyone’s going to do it.  I think it’s a bit farfetched, but only because I can’t conjure up the physical realities that would be required for it to work.
  • Mac “Accessory”: Had an interesting chat about this concept the other day – basically it’s the idea that the tablet is a remote desktop viewing device that lets a user log in to another Mac elsewhere on the Internet.  It would probably have an internal Web browser as well, and some simple other features, but effectively it’s a “dumb terminal” for a more powerful computer.  And in a coup de grace Applesque way to do things, it would probably let you log into a Windows 7 computer as well (assuming you got the right drivers installed, of course).  I don’t think this is a strong possibility, as it doesn’t seem mass-market enough, but it would become a really interesting competitor to a netbook in regards to being a “disposable computer”.
  • Media Slate: So picture a device that’s sleek and sexy, can play back movies, TV shows (including live TV), Internet radio (lala), show pictures/slideshows, play simple games (app store), and be otherwise completely entertaining.  It connects from anywhere, has enough internal storage to last a nationwide flight, and is all about fun.  Further, it comes with numerous context access options, including free services, a la carte purchasing/rentals, and subscription options.  It probably also has a Webcam and native iChat support. I’m fairly bullish on this concept, as it seems to fit in with the Apple iLifestyle very well, and makes for a useful product.

Those are all good, and nice safe bets.  I don’t think I’ve hazarded guesses that others haven’t.  But now I’ll (try to) get more interesting.

  • What if the entire device were touch-sensitive? Front AND back.  Fully gesture enabled, not just multi-touch but multi-hand.  Remember, one of the things that makes tablets suck is figuring out how to hold it right – so let’s assume they “magic mouse” the whole thing, and made it smart enough to figure out the difference between the “holding hand” and the rest of it.
  • What if it’s a flexible display instead? Okay, this is probably stuck in the in my dreams category, but it would be crazy impressive if they skip the whole concept of a tablet and move the industry up a notch with a flex display.
  • What if there’s a built-in pico projector? Going on the “media slate” theory, but kicking into gear the concept of “fun for the whole family”.  Also doubles-up as a productivity device for showing presentations.

And lastly…

What if there’s no tablet?

Seriously, it’s a real possibility.  What if instead of showing us a tablet, they show a 4G iPhone and impressive updates to other devices (or not)?  What if they announce media streaming services instead?  We all know Apple plays their own game, and if they haven’t figured out how to make this thing magical, I don’t think they’d want to ship it.  It would be a bit of an odd strategy, as there seem to be a few too many pseudo-confirmed rumors, but then again, Apple doesn’t deal with terrorists rumors.  It’s a possibility…

15 vs 50: The Battle of the Future of Television

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When you look at the stats for video consumed on computer screens, it’s fairly staggering.  Literally hundreds of millions of videos per day on YouTube alone, 26 billion videos online in the month of September, averaging about 10 hours per month per person.  From one perspective, this could be considered inconsequential relative to the estimated 8 hours per day on the old fashioned TV set (though that stat is open to some interpretation).  However, considering this is still the early days of quality content being available online, it’s pretty safe to say that the computer (and of course Internet) is a successful media playback device.  So is the future of entertainment going to live on the 50″ HDTV display or the 15″ laptop?

The old argument: the PC is a terrible entertainment platform
At my job a decade ago I used to travel around the world meeting with virtually every company who built PCs, phones, and other gadgets.  At the time the focus was on the emerging “digital home”, a wonderful place where we envisioned the PC (for sake of typing, when I say “PC” I mean “computer” and include Macs in this generalization) as the “server” device, providing media to enjoy on connected TVs and stereos. We used to talk about how terrible a laptop or desktop was as a media consumption device, and how nobody would really want to sit around a small screen to watch any kind of premium content.  Other than the time I thought Amazon wouldn’t get anywhere selling books online, I can’t think of a time I was more wrong about something.  In reality PCs are now phenomenal media devices.  Laptops are unbelievably convenient when it comes to portable entertainment, and you can readily purchase surround sound setups for desktops.

All the ways the PC rules
The computer is unquestionably the most versatile product since the invention of the wheel, and when it comes to entertainment offerings, there’s no shortage of tools and services to enhance one’s experience.  With a computer and a high-speed Internet connection, we are a hair’s width away from a true all-content on-demand any-time lifestyle (and for those willing to skirt some pesky laws, they are already living that way).  Whether it’s Pandora or last.fm, Hulu or Windows Media Center (or even the remote possibility that TV Everywhere actually delivers as promised), you can have truly personalized media experience, all the time.

The kids today…
As a youth I distinctly remember our home’s expansion to a few dozen channels and our fancy remote control (which was actually wired to the cable box).  By the time I was in college, we had a couple of hundred channels, pay-per-view content, and premium cable offerings.  The living room was the only real place in the home for entertainment, with our CRT TV, video game console, cable box, and VCR.  College-age kids today have a very different perspective.  Paying for content (other than video games) is a generally foreign concept, as they’ve been surrounded by free for a long, long time.  And this is nothing compared with young children who are growing up in the post-DVR, on-demand world, where programming schedules seem utterly arbitrary.  People under 25 (and some above, of course) are used to taking their entertainment with them, and the only reason to bother going into the living room is to use their game console for gaming, chatting with friends, or watching movies – all activities they’d prefer to do in their own space anyway.

So is my $4000 (2000 1000 500!) high definition set with surround sound a dinosaur?
Ask me that after I watch Dark Knight in 1080p for the 3rd time. Or during the Stanley Cup Finals. Or even for an episode of Glee (yeah, I watch it, but I offset it with Man vs Wild, so back off). There’s just some content that, if given the option, I’d rather watch on a humongo-screen with amazing sound.  And no matter how much time we spend watching content on our laptops or phones, it’s just a different type of experience.  Further, the TV industry isn’t about to go quietly into any goodnight – innovation in televisions is probably moving faster than we’ve seen in the past 3 decades.  Today you can already buy TVs with built-in Internet streaming from a variety of sources, and we’re seeing numerous experiments with 2-way interactivity and 3d displays.  So the era of “making em bigger and cheaper” seems to be fading into the era of “making em do more”.

Some infallible predictions:

  • The popular categories of TV sizes will remain the same for the foreseeable future
  • PC/online media consumption rates will increase (rapidly) over the next 5 years
  • TV viewing rates will NOT decrease over the next 5 years
  • Cable attachment rates (# of people who pay a cable/satellite company) will decrease over the next 5 years, specifically due to people “cutting the cord” and consuming Internet-provided content instead
  • All major sports will have full live and archived streams available online within 2 years
  • At least one major sport will provide direct-to-TV streaming services within 2 years
  • Blu-Ray will continue to flounder, but will show continued (mild) growth for the next few years
  • Real-time interactivity will be tested on major TV shows in the next 2 years (and it’ll be more than just a twitter stream!)
  • Apple will do something more interesting in this space than Apple TV.
  • 3D will not drive the sales of new sets anywhere near what “the industry” hope or project
  • The biggest growth area will be the confluence of laptop use simultaneous to TV viewing
  • There will likely be a resurgence in more dedicated portable media players (that aren’t iPhones) with native streaming services.  They will fare poorly.
  • The concept of the “convergence/Internet set-top box” as well.  These too will do poorly.
  • In 3 years there will be 14 different versions of CSI on the air. Also, the writers of Heroes will still fail in their attempt to kill a character permanently.

I’m loving it
Let’s face it, this is an exciting time for being entertained.  There are so many ways to consume content, and so many interesting experiments occurring around the industry.  Further, many “standards” are pretty well in place, meaning the 720p 42″ plasma you bought 3 years ago is still going to work just fine 3 years from now.  This is unquestionably a good time for innovators, entrepreneurs, and consumers alike.  If you find yourself bored and you have a screen somewhere nearby, you just aren’t trying hard enough.

Disclosures: I was on the steering committee for UPnP, DLNA, I built the Slingbox, and have consulted on topics related to convergence and marketing/PR for Boxee, DivX, VUDU, Clicker.com, NETGEAR. As such, I’ve attempted to avoid anything specific to those companies in this post. In no way are any of my consulting clients related to my tech blogging, though one could argue I’ve seemed to align myself with companies who build cool stuff in the convergence space – and they would be right.

The Goofy Side of CES 2010

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What would the Consumer Electronics Show be if it didn’t have it’s fair share of weird, wacky, zany, and otherwise silly technology proudly on display?  It’s easy enough to catch the 3D displays, the ultra-slim TVs, and other hot new stuff. But seeking out the “take a picture of yourself and print a custom press-on nail kiosk” take a lot more effort.  Here were some of my favorite fun things at the show:

DIY Personalized Press-On Nails
Thanks to the digital camera and modern inkjet technology, the trappings of instant print-your-own-anything are here to wonder and delight. Custom shirts, hats, mugs, skateboards and stickers have been all the rage of late. But that era is now past, thanks to the make your own press-on nail system. It’s funny, but in reality, someone’s going to make a killing setting these things up in malls across the country.
Personalized nails

The Changhong Panda
Not sure why the panda was there, what the company was doing, or really anything other than there was in fact a six foot tall panda. And his new friend Adam.
Adam and a panda

The Sony Bloggie
This camera hits home with the “we’re gonna try to appeal to them bloggerators” marketing pitch. Yup, from the company that basically invented portable music, numerous industry standard playback formats, the plasma display, and more. Next year they’ll ship the twittie, a micro-camera.
the Sony bloggie HD Camera

The “real” headphone
If you think your ears are the only part of your body that can hear noise, well, ok actually you are correct in that regards. However, if you think hearing noise is just about the external part of your ear, well that’s where you’re wrong. Turns out your entire head can absorb sound, it’s a concept called bone conduction, and it’s actually been around for a while. But nobody’s quite mastered the art of the demo and pitch like these guys:
Headphones, literally.
Do you still use earphone?
Do you still use ear?

Programmable Color Keyboards
Let’s face it, keyboards are boring. Every other accessory, from mice to USB drives, come in hundreds of flavors and varieties. But thankfully the wait is over, you too can have a customized keyboard. American Flag pattern? Got it. Rainbow? Check. Jersey Shore theme? Sigh, it’s inevitable.
Programmable Color Keyboard

The 4th-gen iPhone?
Could this be it?
Is this the next-gen iPhone?
(no – it’s just a 3/4 size knock-off by some random Asian manufacturer. it might turn on, probably can make a phone call or two, but there’s definitely no app store)

Automatic Bottle Opener
Just think of all the wine bottles you open over the year. If you are American, it’s a grand total of about 6 bottles per year (as opposed to your French cousin, who is closer to 40). Assuming you exert about 12 calories per bottle opened, just think of all the muscle energy you’d save if only you had a gadget to perform this laborious recurring chore for you. Ta da:
Automatic Bottle Opener

Space Station Styled iMac Workstation
In all fairness this isn’t really as goofy as anything else on the list, in the right kind of office this could actually look pretty interesting. Not *my* office, but…
iMac workstation

The Nickelodeon Oxygen Bar, Massage Center, and Nap Station
Why wouldn’t Nickelodeon, a popular children’s TV network be at the Consumer Electronics Show? And why wouldn’t there be an Oxygen Bar in the middle of a booth? And why wouldn’t there be a place for people to just chill and, well, fall asleep? And while we’re at it, why wouldn’t we think of the same network that brings us shows with insanely loud music and bright colors to “inspire” our children as the same place to deliver us such a restful location? Convergence.
Nickelodeon relaxation zone

SpeakerShoes
This is clearly the first generation of products from CONTROL, as a prototype for next year’s edition which’ll have the phone inside. I think I can summarize by saying “missed it by that much”.
Shoe Speakers (sorry, no phone inside)

Forget 3DTV, CES was all about E-Cigarettes
I am not exaggerating nor incorrect when I state there were more demonstrations of “e-cigarette” products than there were 3DTV products. Why? Because every third or fourth Chinese, Korean, Taiwanese, and other manufacturing representatives were showcasing them in their booths. As I am not a smoker, I don’t get the appeal of regular cigarettes, but I am willing to wager these don’t quite replicate the experience.
E-Cigarette is good for health.

Automatic Head Massager
Unfortunately there were no demonstration units to try out. I am a big fan of all massage-related technologies (and if someone from Panasonic wants to send me that amazing $6000 massage chair, I will happily accept it as a permanent featured addition to the man-cave). Not sure how the head massage feels, but I think you can slip it an extra $20 for a happy ending.
Automatic Head Massager

And for the perfect combo…
Head Massager WITH e-Cigarette

That’s it for my CES wrap-ups, coming in the next few days will be some thoughts and analysis on the trends and themes for gadgets in 2010.  If you aren’t satiated yet, here’s Engadget’s “CrapGadget” post, oddballs from CNET, and a huge list of lists of lists of CES stuff from Robert Scoble. Thanks for reading!

What I Saw at CES 2010

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To be clear up front, this is neither a “Best of” nor a “What’s Hot” type of list.  It’s literally the stuff I saw.  Further, I purposefully avoided the most popular stuff, which you can read more about here, here and here (though they somehow missed the whole 3DTV meme, which was fairly unmissable).  I unfortunately only have a few of the videos I made, as the quality was so poor, but I did get a handful of only semi-grainy Droid-cam pix.  So here are some of the things I saw, in chronological order:

Skullcandy
Saw new headphones designed by DJs for DJs.  New models at CES have the “Aviator” influence. I could so see Tom Cruise sporting these (pre-jumping the couch crazy Cruise that is):

Shure
My long-time favorite in-ear headphones have new updates shown at CES, coming later this year. Quick interview with them:

Optoma
I think a lot of the pico projector as concept.  Optoma now has 4 different models for you to consider:

Chat with Roku’s Brian Jaquet
Met up with my old Sling Media officemate, had a fun chat about convergence, new media vs TV, 3Dtv, etc.

3DTV & 3D Gaming
If you managed to get through any CES coverage without hearing about 3DTV, well… I just don’t think it was possible. Virtually every company I saw displaying any kind of TV was also showing some type of 3D demo. Personally, I’m highly skeptical of 3D for TV, but also very bullish for 3D gaming.  More to come on the topic in the next few days.

3D gaming will be hot

Funky Cases
The era of the black laptop briefcase is definitely at an end. I saw some very cool laptop cases, sleeves, backpacks, and more from a variety of companies. Here’s a shot of a laptop sleeve from Built that I really liked:

at Built cases

Additionally, there were just as many (maybe even more) cool iPhone accessories and cases (virtually none for Droid – more later). Here is Griffin’s custom iPhone case designed by Threadless (three great things that go together).

Threadless "CES Edition" Griffin iPhone case

I wasn’t able to find ANY Droid or Droid Eris accessories! I will blog about this shortly, but in a nutshell, there’s simply no “made for Droid” program. Not good. But I did find a nice screen protector from BodyGuardZ:

BodyGuardZ phone protection

Really, really, really, really thin TVs
There was a 7mm thick TV set from LG at CES this year (pictured below). It was just a prototype, but clearly an indicator of what we’ll see next year. A slightly under-hyped bit of CES 2010 was the prevalence of LED TVs, and while purists will complain on their picture quality, they were unquestionably sexy-thin.

Really really really thin TV

And if you didn’t believe me on my word alone, Peerless (one of the major players in flat panel mounts, and the brand I personally purchased) launched wall mounts for thin TVs:

Super-thin Peerless mount for your Super-thin TV

Cinq laptop monitor
I’ll blog more about these guys later this week (and I have a video interview to boot), but a company I’m on the advisory board of launched this week (disclosure: I’m on their advisory board). The product is called Cinq, it’s a portable lightweight laptop monitor. If you recall my blog posts on a dual-display laptop, this is probably the closest thing to it that’s actually coming to market.

Cinq laptop monitor

Cool booths
While they are ostentatious in virtually every way, there were some very cool booths at CES. And since the show is held in Vegas, which is ostentatious in virtually every way, I guess it’s hard to argue against it. Ideally it would be less brightly lit and more eco-friendly (considering there is a “sustainability” pavilion at the show – more below), but I don’t think that’s coming anytime soon. My favorite booth, in terms of design/presentation, was Samsung’s “kaleidoriffic” display:

Samsung booth - kaleidoriffic
Samsung booth - even more kaleidoriffic

E-readers/E-books
Another category I’m really not bullish about is e-readers. I think there’s a market for the Kindle, the possibility of an Apple device, and that’s about it – and I’m being generous. This is still a niche segment for those with a lot of disposable income, and I don’t see the mainstream (aka paperback) book-buying market investing heavily in a gadget that brings them more expensive (though cheaper than hardcover) anytime soon (especially not pre-rebound economy). However, should someone figure it by devising a new model for e-book purchasing, like say, subscription-based, I think there’s a shot. One of the readers that got people pretty excited this year comes from Plastic Logic:

Plastic Logic e-reader

Green(ish) Stuff
This is a tricky one. I’ve personally woven more sustainability into my day-to-day life, and still look for ways to improve. It’s clearly “buzzy” to be green, despite the tremendous amount of greenwashing going on. So when you’re in Vegas (a city in the middle of a desert) at CES (with huge displays on all the time) and there’s a sustainability movement, is it ironic or noble? Hard to tell. But I do applaud the numerous LED technologies, batteries, recycling, and other effort to help improve the overall consumer electronics industry. My highlight was probably a chat with the folks from Greenpeace, who also issued this year’s “Guide to Greener Electronics“:

Greenpeace Guide to Greener Electronics

More to come…
I have a lot more to say about CES 2010, the hot (and not), the trends, my predictions, etc.   Will try to get one post up per day all week with the thoughts and more.


Not-So-Live at CES 2010

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En route to Vegas, I got myself completely ready for “liveblogging” CES 2010.  My plan was to walk the show floor, find interesting stuff, and either make a quick video or take a picture and blog.  In order to achieve this goal, I had the following technologies prepped:

  • My Droid Eris.  I was fairly confident that the Verizon network would hold up well during the show, giving me 3G bandwidth when and where I’d need it.  Further, it has a 5MP camera – good enough for CES picture taking. Usefulness: 9/10.
  • Ardica jacket w/Moshi Power Pack. Stage Two is doing some consulting work with Ardica, so they gave me a jacket to use during the show in order to keep my Eris charged (since the battery while doing 3G connectivity drains ridiculously fast). Usefulness: 10/10. And as a bonus it kept me warm outside!
  • Flip minoHD. As my backup to my Droid, I had a Flip ready to make all sorts of interesting videos, just in case. Usefulness:2/10. I only made one video with the Flip, but it did work when I needed it.
  • WpToGo (Android App). Gave me near-perfect mobile access to the WordPress blog. Usefulness: 8/10
  • Ustream Broadcaster (Android App). Gave me live videostreaming directly from the phone. Usefuless: 9/10
  • TwiDroid (Android App). Gave me access to Tweet and monitor Tweets. Usefulness: 9/10

Right now you’re probably thinking “well golly jee, Jeremy, it sure sounds like you were set up as the ultimate mobile blogger. What ever could have gone wrong?”

First, while the network connectivity far outpaced my iPhone friends, it still just wasn’t good enough for really watchable mobile video. My friend “Tivoboy” sent me a note that said “live stream is cool and novel, but vid quality is poor doesn’t make for real viewing or ANY future use.”  After receiving that (4 videos later), I pretty much stopped.  Here’s a sample video:

So, now that I was reduced to still imagery and blogging, I ran into the next hurdle: I’m amazingly slow at typing on my Eris, and CES is really busy.  Every time I took a pic, I wanted to upload and write right away, but in reality I pretty much had to keep moving.  So I decided to keep the major storytelling for after I returned, and used Twitter for any “real-time” updates.  I’ll spend the rest of the week getting all the content online (depending on how much MW2 I end up playing).

Overall I thought it was a pretty decent CES.  Nothing outstanding, but then there really hasn’t been much amazing to see at CES in years anyway.  It’s the fundamental branding problem of the show.  Further, the rapidity at which content was shared by Engadget and others radically diminished the in-person wow factor.  When you already know about the various 3DTV, ultra-slim TVs, netbooks, tablets, e-readers, and everything else that’s being shown, it takes a bit away from the in-person showiness of it all.

I think this is the fundamental challenge to keep the show interesting and excited for the attendees (beyond their busy schedules full of meetings).  By Friday afternoon (day 2) when I was walking the show with Robert Scoble and Rocky, we had already seen everything we wanted to see.  This is compounded by the (and forgive the word) “lemming-ness” of the big players.  Once 3DTV was pre-established to be a hot thing, it became the only thing, and as a result, boring.  You simply can’t get excited by 5 different demos of the same technology (especially not one that many of us just aren’t excited about).