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Tag Archives: Apple

What Wouldn't Jobs Do?

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The other day I surmised on what the iPad (still calling it that – it’s the shortest option) might be, as a device.  With only three days left to go prior to launch, I still find myself pondering the “how do they build something at the right price point that’s useful beyond the context of novelty and/or on the commode?” question. While many are going gaga over pretty much anything that could come out, I in my stubborn fashion still just can’t conceptualize what we are about to see.  Of course I’m effectively ready to pre-order it, but I still can’t piece it all together in my head.  So as the follow-up to what might the product be, I thought I’d amble on about what I don’t think we’ll see…

Hardware without software
One of my general rants about Tablet PCs is the lack of compelling software.  Sure Microsoft splashed some “touch features” across the OS, but for the most part it’s a trainwreck.  Apple won’t do this. Everything that ships on the iPad will be designed completely to work in a touch fashion, or it won’t be included period.  I’m still torn between whether it’ll be a version of OS X or a version of the iPhone OS, but either way, the device will ship with oodles of applicable software, custom-built to be great in gesture, touch, multi-touch, or even by looking at it the right way.

Niche or otherwise narrow market scoped
I stated in my last post that a possible product category is just a heads-on Kindle killer.  I’d characterize this as a small opportunity – yes, it’s been great for Amazon, but the market for “better than Kindle e-readers” is small. The only small product Apple still ships is the Apple TV, which they’ve characterized as a hobby product (and rightfully so) from day one.  Granted they haven’t actually said anything about the iPad yet, but their PR machine is too smart to let this much buzz build up and fall that short.  Then again, if this thing doesn’t come with an espresso maker and difribulator, some people are going to be disappointed.

An open platform

Even though the modern day Mac world is based on Unix and has a wide developer base with tons of open source projects, it’s pretty safe to call Apple a company that chooses the proprietary path more often than not.  And while this might frustrate many, the benefits of typically stable products are certainly appealing to the masses.  I expect the iPad will sit somewhere between the iPhone, with individually manually approved apps, and the OS X platform.  Based on the reports today that some apps are supposedly already being run on the iPad (of course these reports prove absolutely nothing, as it could either be an updated iPhone with a new OS, or simply another “labs” product running around campus.  but where would modern tech blogging be without unsubstantiated rumor circulation and amplification?) , my leaning is a differentiated version of the iPhone OS, with more leniency in app approval, but still not open. Many will complain, many will profit, and many will love it.

Focused on productivity
Unlike the Microsoft approach to “ecosystem” – where everything other than the Xbox is able to view and edit Excel spreadsheets – my hunch is the iPad is all about lifestyle, the Internet, and entertainment.  I’d guess there’s a native version of Safari, some kind of simple email and calendaring, and that’s about it.  I think Apple doesn’t have any interest in trying to build buzz or sales into the corporate world, and will instead stay close to their home turf with consumer appeal.  I’d go so far as to say it’ll be fun to use, and the new user experience will center entirely around delivering entertaining content.

Support every mobile carrier
Okay, this is one of those “I think I’m right, but what if they really figured it out???” things (Google didn’t really, and they’ve got some smarty folks too).  Supporting all the US carriers is cost prohibitively “impossible” – you’d need a minimum of 2 different antennas/chips and the relationships in place.  Doing this adds to cost, which is transferred somewhere (consumers), and for the most part neither manufacturers nor consumers like to have “wasteful” componentry.  Which means it’s much more likely there’s either multiple SKUs, or only one carrier.  And since the former isn’t very Apple-y, it’s much more likely there’s only one carrier involved – or none at all (which makes some sense, if this were 1997).  Further, this gets messy when we consider Verizon, the best network in the US, as their CDMA platform is unused in Europe, a place where Apple sells a lot of stuff.

I could probably add a few more pages of the what I don’t think will happen variety, but they start getting less interesting in my own opinion (5 colors of iPads! – not).  I did have one more “I’ll bet they do” item, which is…

Embrace Augmented Reality Even More
Lots of hot trends in the technosphere, from Twitter to FourSquare, from App Stores to Cloud Computing.  But Augmented Reality is actually an interesting one, has more usefulness than others, and is right up Apple’s alley.  I’d predict there are several native applications and services that provide very cool augmented reality features.  I’m firmly in the camp of one or more cameras on the iPad, and I think Apple will include one or more fun exploits of the concept from the get-go.  I don’t know if it’ll be as awe-inspiring as PlayGunman, our amazing lasertag on iPhone game, but hopefully it’ll be close (disclosure – I’m extremely involved in it. also, I’m joking around – if Apple can’t make our game look like Adventure on the 2600, I’d be stunned. and it’s not like our guys are slackers, but it’s freaking Apple).  Apple will definitely do some kind of boundary-pushing move with this device, and I’d hunch that augmented reality is one of the areas they could truly make us think a little differently.


What Would Jobs Do?

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If you follow gadgets or new tech and you are not aware that Apple is introducing “something” next Wednesday, you are either (1) my wife or mother or (2) awaking from a long long sleep. Now along with virtually anything Apple does, or contemplates doing, or doesn’t contemplate doing but others contemplate on their behalf, the rumor mill on this “iPad” is just out of control.  Not a day has gone by this week, and probably the week prior, where numerous stories on TechMeme centered on the speculated device.  My turn.

I’ve tried to think about this entirely with the following perspective:

  1. Tablets, as we think of them today, suck (unless you are in a very specific niche, or perhaps a crazed fanboy).
  2. Steve Jobs does not like to ship suck-y products.
  3. Apple does not focus on niche markets.
  4. Some of the rumors we’ve seen are likely correct (a million monkeys on a million keyboards…).
  5. Apple will still likely do one or more things nobody’s even hazarded a guess at.

So with that in mind, what is Apple up to?

Some more assumptions:

  • It’ll have 3G services built-in.  I’d hope for Verizon, but that limits Apple to its international possibilities.  And there’s no way they’d waste the money on two different 3G chips.
  • It’ll have a “built-for iPad” program at launch.  Still nothing from Droid on this front, but you can bet that Griffin, Case Logic, Kensington, and all the other players will have cases and other accessories coming to market extremely soon.
  • It’ll have the iPod connector, USB, DisplayPort and an SD card slot.  A webcam is highly probably, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an IR interface as well.
  • It might have some clever method of charging (magnetic induction).

Here are some thoughts on the product itself, in no particular order:

  • Sub $300 e-reader + tablet: How about if Apple directly takes on the Kindle, and throws in a great version of Safari, and a Verizon 3G connection?  They sell it at cost, give it a beautiful touch-screen, make it all iPhone-y, but keep it as a simple device.  At this price point it does compete with the iPod Touch, technically, but not in reality, as they are such vastly different products.  We know from the Kindle’s success that there’s a market for the category, and we know that the Nooks and Sonys of the world won’t stand a chance versus Apple and Amazon as the category leaders.  In the “what seems kinda possible and stands a chance at selling in the millions” way of thinking, this is definitely a contender.  Not as sexy as some other options, but possible.
  • Detachable MacBook screen: I’ve come back to this one a few times, as it seems to fit “the world we know” fairly well. What if instead of it being a whole new device, Apple upgrades all MacBooks to have touchscreens that are detachable.  In other words, the keyboard part of the laptop comes off.  It would require some fairly sophisticated engineering to pull off, as the bulk of the computer itself is in the keyboard area, but if anyone’s going to do it.  I think it’s a bit farfetched, but only because I can’t conjure up the physical realities that would be required for it to work.
  • Mac “Accessory”: Had an interesting chat about this concept the other day – basically it’s the idea that the tablet is a remote desktop viewing device that lets a user log in to another Mac elsewhere on the Internet.  It would probably have an internal Web browser as well, and some simple other features, but effectively it’s a “dumb terminal” for a more powerful computer.  And in a coup de grace Applesque way to do things, it would probably let you log into a Windows 7 computer as well (assuming you got the right drivers installed, of course).  I don’t think this is a strong possibility, as it doesn’t seem mass-market enough, but it would become a really interesting competitor to a netbook in regards to being a “disposable computer”.
  • Media Slate: So picture a device that’s sleek and sexy, can play back movies, TV shows (including live TV), Internet radio (lala), show pictures/slideshows, play simple games (app store), and be otherwise completely entertaining.  It connects from anywhere, has enough internal storage to last a nationwide flight, and is all about fun.  Further, it comes with numerous context access options, including free services, a la carte purchasing/rentals, and subscription options.  It probably also has a Webcam and native iChat support. I’m fairly bullish on this concept, as it seems to fit in with the Apple iLifestyle very well, and makes for a useful product.

Those are all good, and nice safe bets.  I don’t think I’ve hazarded guesses that others haven’t.  But now I’ll (try to) get more interesting.

  • What if the entire device were touch-sensitive? Front AND back.  Fully gesture enabled, not just multi-touch but multi-hand.  Remember, one of the things that makes tablets suck is figuring out how to hold it right – so let’s assume they “magic mouse” the whole thing, and made it smart enough to figure out the difference between the “holding hand” and the rest of it.
  • What if it’s a flexible display instead? Okay, this is probably stuck in the in my dreams category, but it would be crazy impressive if they skip the whole concept of a tablet and move the industry up a notch with a flex display.
  • What if there’s a built-in pico projector? Going on the “media slate” theory, but kicking into gear the concept of “fun for the whole family”.  Also doubles-up as a productivity device for showing presentations.

And lastly…

What if there’s no tablet?

Seriously, it’s a real possibility.  What if instead of showing us a tablet, they show a 4G iPhone and impressive updates to other devices (or not)?  What if they announce media streaming services instead?  We all know Apple plays their own game, and if they haven’t figured out how to make this thing magical, I don’t think they’d want to ship it.  It would be a bit of an odd strategy, as there seem to be a few too many pseudo-confirmed rumors, but then again, Apple doesn’t deal with terrorists rumors.  It’s a possibility…

Technology Predictions for 2010

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Every year I predict, every year I get at least one thing right. And many wrong.  But that’s the fun part, right?  This year instead of categorizing based on the technology area, I’m going to organize based on my own scale of how crazy the prediction itself is…

The No-Brainers
Stuff that is almost definitely going to happen. Except the ones that don’t…

  • Twitter growth levels off, though Twitter usage increases. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see the churn rate equal the signup rate as I believe Twitter still has a massive problem with getting new users enchanted with the service.
  • A new version of the iPhone comes out that is incrementally better than the 3GS.
  • Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. (repeat from ’09).
  • CES 2010 exceeds expectations, either in the form of interesting new gadgets or industry-wide product/technology launches.
  • BlackBerry overhauls their “app store” to make it more iPhone-y.
  • Mac OSX market share continues to rise.
  • Superslim TVs (like the Samsung LEDs – drool!) become the hot category for displays.  Many of them are “connected” to various Internet services.

Sounds Feasible
Predictions that are a little more “out there” but don’t require any major convincing.

  • Zynga files to go public, and the entire “social gaming” category gets even more unbelievably outrageous.
  • Yahoo! begins some kind of realistic turnaround. They have far too much foot traffic and too many good properties to continue to fail for so long.
    • Hint to Yahoo! – reinvest in your Flickrs, Deliciouses, and other “interesting” stuff that you are good at, and stay OFF the television and other places that you are not good at.
  • One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice. (repeat from ’09).
  • “Real-time Web” loses steam as a meme. While I’m personally very bullish on the impacts and possibilities, it’s far too niche and far too unimportant to “regular folks” to care about.
    • Probably same for “Cloud Computing”, but since everyone’s just confusing it with “The Internet” it might have more staying power.
  • Apple releases stats on iPhone/iPod/iTunes/app store that are just mind-blowing.
  • 4G/LTE networks spread faster than expected, become viably competitive to the mainstream consumer within the year.
  • The term “Social Media” finally begins to fade across all industries other than Social Media Mavens, Gurus, and Wizards.  The latter reach level 7 and learn how to cast User-Generated Fireball and Community Driven Magic Missile.
  • All non-Apple tablets are craptastic.  Ditto for touchscreen phones.
  • 3DTV gets embedded into lots and lots of TVs, much to the chagrin of consumers who don’t feel the need to look like that goofy guy in Back to the Future, even in the comfort of their own living rooms.
    • Note that in my opinion the only thing that really makes 3D “work” in the home is sports. And even that’s a long shot.

Whatcha Talkin Bout Willis?
Stuff that’s probably not going to happen, but ya never know…

  • Facebook reveals huge revenue numbers, files to go public.
  • Twitter gets acquired by Microsoft.  Yeah, I’m being specific here, but it’s the only logical acquisition, and Microsoft’s got deep enough pockets and have failed at virtually all things Internet.  In a nutshell, Ballmer wants to bring sexy back.
  • The Apple Tablet ships in 2010. Sure all the “in the know” folks are convinced this must happen, but most of them said that about 2009 (and/or that Apple would ship a netbook).
  • Some kind of flexible-display type of device is announced (might even ship).  If I had to hunch (and I of course do), it’d either come from Apple or as a new Kindle.
  • Tru2Way is announced as the new failure of openness from the FCC.
  • All versions of Rock Band and Guitar Hero in 2010 fail to exceed sales stats of 2009 or 2008.
    • Hey guys – remember how that Who Wants to be a Millionaire show was super popular? Then they started running it 4+ nights a week?  Then it moved to daytime?  There’s something called a “saturated market”.  Stop with all the specialty versions and get back to improving the base game, which you can sell add-ons to.
  • Cisco buys a few more gadget makers and technology providers in their attempt to own the Digital Home.  In each case they continue to exhibit poor timing and overpay for slightly outdated platforms.

Can I get a hit of that stuff?
Things that are just plain unrealistic, but I’m saying them anyway.  This way if they happen I can say I was the first to say them.

  • Apple does not ship a tablet. Yes, I contradict the above point, since I do think “where there’s smoke, there’s fire” holds up in general.  However, it is Apple, and this is a terrible device category, and Steve Jobs hates doing things crappily.  BTW, you really should read this piece if you are even remotely following the Apple Tablet news – it’s extremely well written and insightful.
  • Facebook buys Twitter.  It’s not really all that out there as a concept (although I’d wager the personalities behind both companies are big forces against it).  Both companies need to continue rapid growth. Both companies need to create lots of revenue.  Both companies want to be “empires”.  There are many overlapping aspects, but the combined entity could realistically “own” the social network.
  • A new game console launches.  I put this in the long-shot category because nobody is really incented to create a new console right now.  The Xbox 360 is finally hitting it’s strides; the PS3 has way too much cost to recoup, and the Wii is enjoying it’s ride.  If I had to guess, I’d wager on a 4th party entrant (Samsung?).  If one of the big three, I’d pick the next console as a “Wii HD”.
  • A “Lifestreamer” device comes to market.  It’s not quite a phone, but it’s always on, always recording, and has amazing synch with some Web service.  Never takes pictures, only video. Able to “Tag” moments.  Has real-time streaming capabilities.
    • Scoble buys units for himself and entire family. 😉
  • Microsoft (or possibly Yahoo!) goes on a major Internet services acquisition spree, picking up companies like Zoho, bit.ly, Adobe (yes, Adobe), Pandora, Evernote, UserVoice, and more.
  • The TwitterPeek is the #1 hottest selling device of the year!

That’s all folks, see you in 361 days for the results.

Note that I anticipate much snarkiness in the comments.  Have at it.

The Tablet That Nobody Really Wants…

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All of them.

Wired claims 2010 is the year of the tablet. Let’s face it, however much they sound dreamy (even I’ve speculated on wanting one in the past), in practical reality tablets generally suck.  They are both a worse laptop than a laptop, and a worse touch-input device than a piece of paper I can scan with my cheapo HP all-in-one printer/scanner/fax/sock darner combo device.  So this is my “I don’t care what they say in the focus group, nobody’s buying your crappy tablet” intervention blog post.

Tablets suck at handwriting recognition. The dream of a touch-screen is you can easily edit/mark up your documents, and, as if by magic, the edits transform into your Word doc in a useful manner.  Instead you get edts tht looh lik ths, intermixed with the occasional number and odd symbol.

Tablets suck to carry around. It’s too big for your pocket, and probably too big for your murse.  Which means you need a laptop bag.  Which means you might as well carry a… laptop.

Tablets make you tired. The ergonomic problems with a laptop are bad enough. Where am I going to carry the tablet such that constant use doesn’t get exhausting?  The only worse user interface is the full hand motion system from Minority Report. Seriously, have you seen Tom Cruise’s biceps? they got huge after *that* movie!

Tablets can’t share nicely with others. So let’s pretend your tablet comes with some fancy new visual editing tool.  Well, how do you get that useful data back to the other 99.9% of people you have to interact with?  PDF?  I don’t think so.  Although I do assume that Apple would make some proprietary app that *would* work well, but that’s not the point.

Tablets suck at hiding smudges. The spittle residue on my MacBook screen is fairly intense.  I can’t imagine how my greasy french-fry-eating fingers are going to make any tablet look.  And yes, I’ve seen your iPhone, and I carry wipes around just so I don’t have to put it next to my head.  Gross.

Tablets are bad Web browsers. I still applaud the CrunchPad team for their hard work, but I have no idea why anyone thinks surfing a Web page on a tablet with fingers is better, easier, or faster than doing the same with my laptop.  Ditto for anyone else’s tablet.  Plus, when I have to input anything, which is always, I don’t really want a virtual keyboard that will, by definition, work worse than the one on my laptop.

Tablets are priced poorly. What’s the “magic” price point for this thing?  $200? No way it’ll be any good.  $800? Buy a MacBook.  $500? Buy a 3G NetBook.  There is no price point that makes sense, other than as a gimmicky product for those with too much money lying around.  Who will, for the record, all purchase one as soon as they come out.

Tablets suck at everything else. IM? Won’t work well. Video chat? Won’t work well. Spreadsheets? Nope.  About the only other thing a tablet will be good at is a finger painting application, which my 2-year-old would love.  For about 5 minutes until his short attention span moves onto the cardboard box he was playing with yesterday. Oh, and FreeCell – a tablet would be a killer FreeCell device.  Awesome.

So there you have it.  Sorry teams Apple TouchBook, CrunchPad, Windows Tablet Home Premium Ultimate 7 Edition (service pack 8), I know there is crazy hard work and tremendous effort going on in the labs.  But I think until literally all of the above problems are solved, this is a non-category.

But if you do figure it out, I’m buying!

My First Truly Crappy Apple Experience

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I’m coming up on 2 years into my MacBook/OSX life, and while I’m not quite a drooling fanboy, I am most certainly drinking some of the Apple flavored Kool-Aid.  Why? Because everything just works, almost all of the time.  Seriously.  I do have the occasional frozen application, and have been forced to reboot against my will periodically, but it’s a rarety.  And I still miss Windows keyboard shortcuts, iMovie is horrendously bad next to Windows Movie Maker, and Mail/Calendar could use some help too.  But for the most part, I heart my MacBook and recommend them to everyone who asks.

Yesterday, however, I had one of those “What The What?” moments with an Apple application.  One of those “I’ll bet Steve never saw this user flow” before thoughts.  Here’s the rough sequence of events…

  1. Inside iTunes, I went to the Store.  Easy.
  2. Looked for TV Shows.  Easy.
  3. Found Kids category. Easy.
  4. Found Thomas the Train.  Easy.
  5. Bought an episode.  Easy.
    While my wife and I *rarely* entertain our son with TV programming, we had a long day in front of us and wanted to have a lot of backup ready, just in case.  Thomas the Train, muted, was our selection, mainly because we didn’t have the ability to buy old Montreal Canadiens hockey games.  Which, of course, are perfect for children of all ages (as long as you remain in the years prior to 1994).
  6. Paid for the episode. Easy.
  7. Watched the episode download to my hard drive. Easy.
  8. Closed the lid. Really easy.

    several hours later (yup, after about 7 hours the moment struck – we were exhausted, kids missed nap time and we were just out of steam to keep anything interesting)…

  9. Opened the lid. Easiest step so far.
  10. In iTunes, clicked Library, then TV Shows. Easy.
  11. Found Thomas the Train, double-clicked on the episode. Uh oh.

Here’s the first dialog I saw:

thomas-the-train-authorize

I was being asked to authorize this computer.  Now, as an interesting point, I’d never, ever, purchased anything from the iTunes store before. Here’s the problem – I was offline by now.  And I was pretty sure what would happen next, but I clicked through anyway.  As a result, here’s the next screen I saw:

thomas-the-train-not-connected

And huge whopping frustrating FAIL.

So my note to team iTunes: when a user makes their first purchase from your store, you should probably get the authorization thingamajigger to happen at the same time.  If not, warn them, in a big honking font, media will not play until you authorize your computer (and you will need an Internet connection for this). Don’t worry, I’m still BFFs with OS X and everything, but this is an easy thing to fix. And even if it only happens to a tiny fraction of a percent of your customers, it’s too easy not to do it better.

Why did Apple colossally screw up the iPod Shuffle?

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On a scale of 1 to 10, the new iPod shuffle is just stupid.  (You could probably tell from the title what I want to rate it.)

Good lord.  Where to begin.  Let’s start with a disclaimer.  I haven’t touched or seen the new shuffle in person.  Deride me all you want, I don’t care.  Apple has made several colossal, incredible mistakes with this device.

Anyone who’s read this blog before (only a rare few have come back more than once) knows that I care a great deal about Apple, and that I adore the aluminum shuffle.  That review was one of my very first, and it took place almost exactly 2 years ago.  I like that shuffle so much that I even got a second one and had it waterproofed.  But this new one… sigh.

Let’s see.  No buttons. Brilliant, let’s use an earphone-based switch.  Except, wait a second, what if I want to use a different set of earphones?  I can tell you for a certainty that some people (Sol) don’t like Apple’s earbuds – they just don’t fit.  So now I’m locked into Apple’s proprietary earphones whether I like it or not.  I will be unable to skip songs, pause and play, or change the volume without them.  Epic Fail.  And the controls are not very straightforward – Adrian Covert over at Gizmodo compares it to Morse Code.  Haha.

Form factor.  The new one is smaller.  Small as a house key.  Whoopee.  I use my square shuffle when I run, and I clip it to the waistband on my shorts.  It fits easily and doesn’t pinch or push against my skin.  The new one is long and skinny instead of square.  Maybe it occupies less cubic space overall, but it’s still longer than the square version, which means that it sticks further down the leg and is significantly more likely to pinch and press against the top of the leg while running.  Wahhhh!  I know, I’m a crybaby.  Don’t care.  I don’t see how making it rectangular and slightly smaller is an improvement.  Doubling the flash memory while shrinking the device (and preserving battery function) is a technological feat, I will grant them that.

The point is, they’re messing up an excellent product.  Even sight unseen, Apple just took a 7.5 and made it a 3.  The earphone restriction is egregious.  Moronic. Idiotic. It’s dumb.  The judgement on the form factor is my opinion.  Others may disagree, and that’s cool.  They can write their own blog.  But imho, there is no excuse for this stupidity.

Apple is a money-hungry American corporation that wants to insert themselves into our lives and control all our devices and hence have control over our actions and more importantly our buying habits.  For this I applaud them.  Seriously, I’m an American and a capitalist.  I love Apple, even if I find some of their practices annoying (DRM anyone?)  But when they start making bad (or worse yet, stupid) product decisions, that shakes my faith and my confidence in the world of consumer electronics.

As noted above, if I were force to rate this product (albeit without playing with it in person) on a scale from 1 to 10, it would get a 3.  If it weren’t being compared to such a superior previous version, it might score better.  But the earphone thing is pretty stupid.  Gahhh.

This reiew is also published at 1TO10REVIEWS.

Internal Memo Leaked: Apple to Close Business on Tuesday

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In an incredibly rare “scoop” I received an email from an anonymous Apple employee who shared an internal memo with me. Here are the contents (name withheld by request):

To All Apple Employees:

After 12 great years back at Apple, I’ve come to make an important decision about the future of the business. With great analysis of the current and future markets, I’ve decided it’s time for us to close shop. While this may surprise some of you, I think if you truly consider the situation I’m sure you’ll come to the same conclusion yourself.

Since I rejoined Apple, we’ve rebuilt the image of the company in its entirety. Our flagship product, OS X, represents the pinnacle in operating systems. Normally we’d pursue improvements, but after playing with the latest version of a Vista PC, it seems like there’s just no point in working on making ours any better.

Since the launch of the first generation iPod we’ve utterly dominated the portable MP3 player landscape. In fact we’re outselling our competition by such a ridiculous margin it often feels like we’re playing the Washington Generals!

In 2007 we built the best phone ever made. In 2008 we followed it up with the best phone ever made. This process is likely to repeat itself far into the future.

It’s great to win, but something changed after we launched the MacBook Air, the lightest, thinnest, fastest, shortest, longest, cleanest, tallest, and softest laptop ever built or ever will be built.

So I sat down with Jonathan Ive and we brainstormed other industries to go conquer. We debated products such as microwaves, vacuum cleaners, dish soap, and even breakfast cereal. We just couldn’t find anything else that would be really exciting to go monopolize.

Therefore, I’ve decided it’s time for us all to move on. It’s been a really fun time, we have the best team in the world. I believe the best thing we can possibly do is quit while we’re way ahead. Additionally, think of all the amazingly talented resources out there to join the workforce at other technology companies that could use some help (I’m thinking of you, Jerry!). Trust me, it’s a good thing.

Please remove all personal effects from your offices by 5pm, as all campus buildings will be demolished immediately thereafter. Apple Store employees will all have job offers from the new tenants of their current locations, as they are being converted into Red Lobster franchises.

And one more thing.

I’ll be showing up at the Chicago White Sox training camp next Spring. If that doesn’t work out, my back-up is seeing if the Jets need any extra QB’s next year.

Steve Jobs
Apple CEO

There it is, unaltered, and unverifiable. Until Tuesday morning, that is. Should be a keynote to remember it seems!

ps – just in case, can all stockbrokers think twice before making trading decisions because of something you read on this blog?  thanks. on a related note, I am an Apple shareholder.

What if Apple invented and sold the Segway?

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Steve Jobs on SegwaySo I was walking around Downtown Chicago last weekend, the very same weekend Apple pushed 1 million iPhone 3G units out the door, and saw a police officer stroll by on his government issued Segway, which got me thinking. What if the on-top-of-the-world tech giant invented, marketed, and sold the Segway today. Would Apple be able to push the 50,000 to 100,000 units out the door that Segway Inc. expected to sell in its first year of sales? I think the answer is 100% yes. Well, maybe 90%.

-Design Design Design
Apple has a knack for taking products to their limit of how good they can look. When Steve Jobs got a first look at the Segway back in 2003, he said, “Its shape is not innovative, it’s not elegant, it doesn’t feel anthropomorphic.” (For those of us that needed to look up that word: anthropomorphic adj. – resembling or made to resemble a human form.) If Jobs and his designers were to design the Segway, it would, for sure, be better in those three areas. Of course there would be a snazzy placement of a light up Apple logo, causing all the Apple lovers to eat it right up.

Also, the most important design & production point, Apple would be able to get enough of a mass production discount to keep the cost of the device down. They would shoot to have these priced at $2,999.00 (or as low as $77.00 a month). Crossing that $3,000.00 price point, for the base unit, is too scary for consumers.

-Bandwagon
With the popularity of Apple now, and the way people are eagerly handing over their credit cards for anything with an Apple logo on it, they would easily be able to push 100,000 units out the door in a year. I know some of you are saying, “Hey don’t push that overzealous bandwagon theory into this argument, everyone that buys an Apple product knows exactly what they are buying!!!” Well let me present to you this sample dialogue told to me by my co-worker that was waiting in line for his iPhone 3G.

20 something woman waiting in line, gets approached by what is assumed to be her mother.

Mother: What are you waiting in line for?
Daughter: Oh this new Apple phone. It’s cool, its got a touch screen, plays MP3, it’s really cool.
Mother: Really?! Maybe I want one of those too!
Daughter: Yeah, you should get one! Wait with me!

Woman and her Mother wait in line. An Apple associate comes by to answer questions.

Mother: What’s the deal with this phone?
Apple Associate: Ma’am the Apple iPhone is the most advanced cell phone on the market now, it has fully integrated PUSH email, calendar, and contacts. Along with real web browsing, an app store, and now integrated GPS.
Daughter: Oh really?! GPS, I had no idea it could do ANY of that!
*(Words are approximated, but idea is the same – Thanks Dave)

This was probably a common occurrence within the lines and lines of people waiting for the iPhone.

There are some of you saying, there are plenty of Apple products that Apple sells that don’t reach the numbers you are talking about. You are correct, but with the iPhone-like hype the Segway got when it was originally announced, Apple would be able to quickly turn that hype into sales. They have built up a well enough rapport with consumers, that as long as there is a line to get it, a cool factor, and an Apple logo on the side of it, people will shell out the cash/credit for it.

-Marketing is King
Apple is a marketing juggernaut and would have to assert its dollars in this area in order to make this product sell. They would saturate the movie and television market, making it look like everyone in our society uses a Segway on a daily basis. With the right ad campaign, they would be able to make everyone in the world think they were morons for wanting to walk anywhere. Commercials, billboards, and subway cars would all be screaming at us, “Soon there will be 2 kinds of people. Those who walk, and those who walk different.” Other ads will be telling us to purchase this new transportation device because, “It just goes”.

With the skyrocketing fuel prices, and the big push for “Being Green”, electric powered transportation is the “new black”. (Ironically, all of Apple’s successful gadgets come in black!) Apple would need to leverage this in their marketing and let people know, “Not only is this the coolest gadget IN the world, it’s the coolest gadget FOR the world.” A perfect example of this is the Honda Civic Hybrid. The Civic was already one of the coolest cars for teens and 20-somethings. But make it “Green”, and you got yourself a car that you have to get on a waiting list to buy.

Whether you agree with me or not, it seems like something just might be a brewing on this front, since on July 7th, the former CTO of Segway, Doug Fields, left to join Apple (JT: maybe this new hire has to do with the unknown “future product transition”).

Hopefully Fields can get this project on a roll. I know I speak for most when I say that we are just so tired of walking everywhere, and we don’t want to look like the biggest nerds ever, on a non-anthropomorphic Segway.