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Who's going to solve the mega photo library problem?

Posted on July 28, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

Despite adopting digital cameras in the late 90’s, I managed to lose my pre-2003 library somewhere along the way (hence my quintuple backups, including online and offsite copies). That said, I have over 15,000 digital pictures in my iPhoto library, and average 300 or so new images per month, not to mention the videos stored along side them. At this point, the library is so large it’s right on the edge of being completely unusable.

Scrolling through images? Useless. Manually creating albums? If I don’t do it as I sync the camera, it never happens. Events? Nearly worthless. Browsing through photos on my Xbox? Actually impossible. About all I know is I DO have safe backups, and if I’m willing to scroll enough, the photos are all there to view, print, etc. Which I basically never do.

Further, the actual size of my library is now so big (125gb) I had to move it to a USB drive. And as cameras continue to improve, or as people adopt more DSLRs and video recording devices, collection sizes will grow out of manageable sizes.

And this is a problem that actually notably worsens every month.

So what’s to be done about it? Here’s what I propose:

1) Photo management tools must become capable of comprehending multiple file storage locations.
A user should be able to divvy up their collection across local, USB, and networked drives, and have clear comprehension of how to manage this. Maybe I keep my “recent” and “favorites” on the laptop, the “last year” on a USBdrive, and all the rest on a networked drive (or secondary USB drive, or both). Further, this must be implemented in such a way that a user can easily figure out where stuff is, in a non-technical fashion.

2) Photo tools must have independent, intelligent, automatic, redundant backup services
There are no files I have that are more important to me than my pictures. In fact, my photos become *more* important over time, and as the collections grow, *more* likely to have problems (data corruption, loss, etc). Backup should not be an afterthought, it should be a required element of the environment – plus it’s a great upsell opportunity for virtually all involved providers. On a related note, the management tools should effectively inventory my entire collection, and warn me if any given subset is at risk.

3) The introduction of new photo organization paradigms
While all the apps do effectively decent jobs at creating events, albums, albums within albums, folders, timelines, tags, favorites, and more, it’s simply not enough.  Which makes sense, given that in all reality, this is a problem the photo world hasn’t really faced before for typical users.  In the past, the only people with tens of thousands of photos were professional photographers, who never really need to manage or even access all of them simultaneously.  The digital photo management world is only slightly more powerful than print photo albums and shoeboxes full of pictures.  We need new concepts in how we’ll organize pictures (and incidentally, making users tag them, is not the answer).  I’m personally still noodling on the concept, and have yet to come up with something – but I trust there are better data/knowledge management folks out there than myself.

4) Video must become a side-by-side feature to photo management
Whether it’s video capture built into a digital camera or a standalone device like a Flip, users are increasingly creating video libraries.  And much like our photo libraries, the files are disorganized, not easily searchable, and have no strong mechanisms for organization beyond simple file/folder/date concepts.   Since there’s a high likelihood of people creating even more videos in the future than they do today, this problem must be addressed in parallel to the photo one.

There it is, my “manifesto” for personal photo management software.  Looking forward to seeing the future of iPhoto, Picasa, and other mainstream tools for what is clearly an impending mainstream problem!

Posted in General | Tags: digital cameras, iPhoto, photos, Picasa, usability | 8 Comments |

GIVING NOTICE: I'm reclaiming Facebook for personal use

Posted on June 14, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

According to Facebook, I have over 400 friends.  According to the number of people with whom I share personal things, go out for drinks, have over for dinner, call to catch up, and otherwise consider “Friends”, that number is off by a long shot.  So I’m going to fix it, and I’ll explain why.

I consider myself quite a social, yet private person (yes, privacy matters, and is not going away anytime soon).  I speak at a good number of public events, am decently well known in the tech industry, and am generally “out there”.  But I don’t like to share my personal life with everyone, partially because I don’t think everyone cares, but mostly because I consider my life private.  I neither need nor want “the world” to know whether I go for a bike ride with my kids, have a date night with the wife, catch up with an old friend over a beer, or any other “regular living” activity.  But it’s deeper than that.

I firmly resent the notion that I am supposed to have to include anyone and everyone I’ve ever met into my personal life, and even if it’s considered an industry faux pas, I simply don’t care anymore.  I have plenty of vehicles for communicating anything remotely work/tech/industry related, and plan to continue to use them.  Facebook, for me, is supposed to be my personal network, not my professional one.

So here’s my new Facebook friend policy:

  • Actual Friends, not “friendly acquaintances”
  • Current Friends, not “people I kinda knew in high school”
  • Work people I go out with socially, not “someone I met at a conference and exchanged business cards”
  • etc

In the next few days, I’ll be UNfriending anyone who doesn’t make the above list.  This might sound harsh or alienating, but I like to live my life assuming everyone has enough self-esteem.  I don’t look at this as rejection, and I hope anyone who gets unfriended doesn’t think of it that way either – it’s not.  Just because I like someone and have a professional relationship with them doesn’t mean we’re Friends.

While I might be an “early rejector” I fundamentally believe I won’t be the last, and most folks will come around the conclusion that they need to separate out their personal lives from the professional. While there will be many who have some blend (I believe I’ll be in that camp),  It really never should’ve gotten so far out of hand in the first place. I hope my actions can help others who are feeling the same way, but scared of the potential backlash.

Posted in General | Tags: facebook, friend, personal, privacy | 7 Comments |

Predictions for WWDC 2010

Posted on June 7, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman


Watch live video from Jeremy Toeman on Justin.tv

Summarizing my video, my predictions:

New iPhone, possible OS X and/or iWork update, lots of stats, demo’s of iPhone 4.0 OS, no cheap Apple TV refresh, no iPhone on Verizon

Links I reference in the video:

  • Business Insider (predictions)
  • PC World (predictions)
  • Engadget coverage of WWDC 2009
  • List of 7 iPhone 4.0 tentpoles
Posted in General | Tags: Apple, iphone, iphone 4, os x, predictions, wwdc, wwdc 2010 | 1 Comment |

More Talkey, Less Typey.

Posted on May 25, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

I’ve blogged for almost 6 years, written over 700 posts, with countless (not really) words.  While I’m no Block, Topolsky, Scoble, Gray, or Zatz, I’ve been prolific in my own eyes.  I’ve had writing block and had moments of near vomitous levels of typing.  It’s been fun, it’s been entertaining, it’s been exhausting, and so many more things.

It’s also a lot of pressure, and the pressure is getting me weary.  I love reviewing products, but barely have the time to even use them, let alone do competent reviews.  I love chiming in on “memes”, but often find 95% of what I’m planning to say is already being written by someone else.  I hate the feeling that I’ve been negligent of blogging after even 3 days go by between posts. I’m fatigued.

So I’m trying something new: video.  Mostly short form, 2-5 minute segments is probably my goal.  I intend to remain focused on consumer electronics, gadgets, digital lifestyle, and social media as it pertains to digital lifestyle.  I intend to remain opinionated, possibly even moreso than in the past.  I intend to attempt to be entertaining, to the best of my ability.  And most importantly: I intend to have fun, and ease the “pressure” I’ve felt in recent months.

I’m using Justin.TV as my platform, here’s my channel.  I also plan to do “live interactive stuff” whenever/wherever possible, and will probably use Twitter as my mechanism to announce said stuff.  Here’s the first segment:


Watch live video from Jeremy Toeman on Justin.tv

Posted in General | Tags: blog, fatigue, Video/Music/Media, vlog | Leave a comment |

first post from my iPad

Posted on April 3, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

This is just a test post using the worpdress app on my brand new iPad. Big thanks to Charlie and Brian from the sf chestnut street store.

Playtime!!!

Posted in General | 3 Comments |

What if the iPad turns out to be a bread machine?

Posted on April 2, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

With all my gushing over the iPad (considering I haven’t even touched one yet), I thought I would take a moment to write about the dark side of the device.  After all, it very well could miss the mark for fitting into my lifestyle.  The more I considered it, the more I realized the potential gadget parallel – the bread machine.

If you’ve ever had a bread machine, or know someone who has, the following probably sounds a little familiar.

Day zero:

  • Line up in front of the bread machine store.

Day one:

  • Receive bread machine.  Either as gift or because someone told you that you just had to have one.
  • Unbox it with extreme excitement.
  • Plug it in.
  • Find all the ingredients you need, make a loaf of bread.
  • Eat the loaf, marveling in the joy of fresh hot bread.
  • Tell all your friends about the amazing new bread machine.

Days two-ten:

  • Research more bread recipes.
  • Buy different types of grains, flours, seeds, yeasts, and other ingredients.
  • Make some “wacky” types of breads.  No less than one loaf per day.
  • Slowly settle in on your personal favorite.
  • Tell all your friends about the amazing new bread machine and that they HAVE to have one.

Days ten-thirty:

  • Make a loaf every few days.
  • Run out of ingredients when you want to make bread, get annoyed.
  • Get a little tired of cleaning the bread machine.
  • Start buying some bread from stores again.

Days thirty-sixty:

  • Make a loaf or two.
  • Move the bread from the middle of the kitchen counter to a cabinet somewhere.
  • Buy lots of bread.

Day sixty-one:

  • Either put bread machine in the garage, or give it to a friend/relative

Now other than the bread machine enthusiasts who are going to come leave nasty comments, I think I’ve done a fair job recounting the story of the “gadget I didn’t truly need, but had a lot of fun with for a little while.”  The iPad may certainly fall into this category.  As I’ve previously blogged, I’m quite excited about the device, but still don’t quite know why.  My hunch says it won’t be just a novelty that gets shelved in a few weeks or months, but it could happen.

My Flip cam is a bit of a novelty gadget – I still use it from time to time, but not the way I expected to.  I’d put bluetooth headsets into this category for most people.  Any kind of “power mouse” or other computer accessory that really just adds to the complexity.  The Sony Dash.  Digital Picture Frames.  Most kitchen gadgets (hence the bread machine).  My OLPC is my grand champion worthless piece of green plastic.  Novelty stuff.

How can you tell if something is just a novelty?  I’d say it falls into one, or both of the following definitions: Things that people buy without a clearly defined lifestyle benefit, OR things that don’t provide value in a easier/faster/better way in life.  So a digital picture frame has a benefit (see your pictures without using your computer), but it’s actually harder/slower to do so than a computer, so it’s a novelty.  Bluetooth headsets have clear benefits, but having to remember to bring them with you AND keep them charged creates more work.  The OLPC? Fuggedaboutit!

So the iPad?  No clearly defined lifestyle benefit I can think of (I can do all the same things with my laptop).  But is it easier/faster/better for doing anything?  Yes.  This may sound trite, but I firmly believe it will be a easier/faster/better way to do “general Internet things.”  And I’m fairly convinced that that category is ill-defined today, but will be a distant memory in the not-all-that-distant future.

Or I could be wrong and you’ll hear about my mom using it in a couple of months…

Posted in General | Tags: Apple, bluetooth headsets, bread machine, dash, digital picture frames, ipad, OLPC, tablet | 6 Comments |

Very Curious: My First Real iTunes Sync Experience (on the iPad)

Posted on April 1, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

I’m willing to place a small wager that I represent less than 1% of iPad pre-order customers when I say: “I have never owned an iPod/iPhone, nor used iTunes to sync a media file/collection.”  Yup, I’ve never dealt with the library, App Store, syncing, or anything else before.  Sure, I’ve used my friends’ iPods to browse and play music, but that’s about it.  In candor, my one experience with buying and playing content from iTunes was quite unpleasant, but I recognize it was a bit of an anomaly.

My expectations are fairly straightforward, or so I think they are.  And while I suppose there’s probably videos or web pages that already explain it all, I am looking forward to a fresh, unbiased out of the box experience (OOBE).  Here’s some of what I expect:

  • I can go to iTunes, pick stuff I like/bookmark/purchase, and it will automatically download to my iPad over WiFi.  Now I have a hunch the auto-sync part may not work like I hope, and I may need to sync over USB, which wouldn’t be terrible, but disappointing.
  • I can browse and search the app store from the iPad, find stuff, purchase & download directly
  • I can (fairly easily) sync media files (music, photos, videos) from my iMac/MacBook to my iPad
  • I can sync from one iPad to more than one Mac computer (home MacBook, office iMac)
  • On the iPad, Web links to apps enable direct download & installs (with no intervening steps)
  • On the iPad, I can browse music on my local iTunes server, and sync them (with no intervening steps)

My biggest concern is the ability to use the iPad, find content on the local network, and browse it there.  I mean this specifically with iPhoto, but general file browsing & playback is also a desire.  I’ve got close to 10K photos on my NAS and my MacBook, and would like to view them whenever I’m on the home network.  Further, I’m hoping to be able to do so while away from home, though I’m not sure if that’s possible (even with MobileMe – a service I do not currently subscribe to).  The mere idea of “use my iPad as a remote photo viewer” reaches “killer feature” category for me.

I’ll check back in on this topic once I’ve played more with the iPad + iTunes and taken enough time to sit down and write something.  Which may or may not occur via my iPad.  I’m sure there’s an app for that.

Posted in Gadgets, General | Tags: Apple, ipad, itunes, synch | 2 Comments |

Will Normal Folks Ever Use Twitter?

Posted on January 26, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

I’ve been thinking about this for a while, but I saw a post on how most Twitter users do not use the service, and thought I’d expand some thoughts. The majority of my friends do not Tweet. Nor does my family. They do not care about it. They see “follow us on Twitter” during TV broadcasts and don’t know why they should. Further, they are not getting more interested despite an increasing barrage of the service.  If anything, they are even less intrigued to the mystique that is Twitter than ever before.  Note that some of my screenshots contain vulgar language – nothing compared to Xbox Live banter, but you’ve been warned.

Here’s the “first impression” a user gets by coming to twitter:

Independent of all other things, this doesn’t really give any insight as to why people are going crazy about Twitter. If I’ve heard that Oprah and Ashton are tweeting, and my favorite football player, and it’s the latest hottest thing, and all I see is a static page with a bunch of random-seeming terms, I’m not yet compelled.  Further, the major tagline “Share and discover what’s happening right now, anywhere in the world” isn’t exactly right.  If you make a search like “how are things in haiti” you get a very bizarre set of responses that do not inherently answer the question.  Knowing how to search in Twitter is important, yet isn’t taught.  Showing hashtags also overly geeks up the screen, and in a bad way.  To continue this “new user experience”, I clicked on “pregnancy pact” (was curious) and saw the following:

This didn’t really explain anything to me, just showed me, well, the exact type of garbage the average person does not want to be reading.  It’s not even gossip/fun, it’s just *weird*.  Sure there’ll be the occasional clever gem, but for the most part, especially with popular topics, it’s becoming a haven for spam or utter drivel.  Also, as an aside, Twitter should not display foul language to users who aren’t logged in – some people still prefer to keep vulgarity elsewhere. It actually gets even worse if you look at trending topics:

Huh?  No thanks.

Now how about the new user experience from the perspective of following someone they were “told” to follow.  The @CNN account shows recent CNN headlines, as it should.  However, this does not exactly “add value” to someone’s life, as finding CNN headlines is relatively easy to do.  How about mega-celebrity @Oprah?

Not exactly new and interesting, and definitely not “real-time”. All we’ve learned is she seems to like Avatar, uses capital letters inappropriately, and then includes a bunch of things that look like gobbledygook.  Why? Because once you do get “into” Twitter, you start using acronyms, links, and vocabulary that make texting look downright poetic.  What’s a ow.ly? Who’s RT? It looks foreign and daunting.  It’s as if there’s a huge “insider’s” club, and if you don’t get it, you feel awkward and alienated.

Finally, there’s looking at what happens once someone actually does sign up for Twitter and use it.  They are presented a seemingly random list of “suggested” users.  Following these people creates a stream of equally foreign and incomprehensible Tweets, likely about topics that aren’t interesting to anyone other than a small group, and again, in an exclusionary, not inclusionary, manner.  Trying to catch the eye/ear of others is near-impossible, and building a following outside one’s small social circle is unlikely to occur.  More stats:

The average Twitter user has 27 followers, which is down from 42 followers in August, according to the new study. About 25% of users have no followers at all; that’s up from 20% with no followers last August. Upward of 40% of users only have one to five followers.

So what should Twitter do about it?

This is the million billion dollar question.  The company is already in danger of reaching the backlash phase inevitable in modern society (get too big/successful and you become the enemy, deservedly or not – see Starbucks, Google, Wal-mart, etc).  Some say it’s already started.  I don’t think so, as I think we haven’t even come to the point where people care yet.  That said, my non-Twitter “regular world” friends are already telling me they’re tired of the inundation of “follow us on Twitter” they see during TV shows, Web sites, etc.  This is a problem, and Twitter must solve it to get as big as they want to be – otherwise this whole thing will get outed as a “early adopter only” toy, and valuations will come crashing down.  And if it starts to crash, even a little bit, it probably won’t recover – nobody wants to hang out in the club that was cool 3 years ago, but only your dad goes to now.

In my opinion, Twitter needs to thoroughly overhaul the new user experience.  Forget “suggested users” and focus on “suggested uses“.  Part of the reason the media like Twitter so much is it is actually useful for doing their job.  They can publicize their content rapidly and directly, can interact with both readers and companies, and make reporting/blogging/journalism a component of how they use Twitter. For celebrities, be they Web-only or real ones, it’s good for personal branding not to mention a nice ego-feed.  For events which occur in real-time (Hudson plane crash, Haiti earthquake, elections, etc) it’s a good way of finding out information as it occurs (though obviously fraught with error and rumormongering).

Notice how we’ve still ruled out “normal people living normal lives”?  There’s zero relevance to the average person who wants to live in private.  Even as they dabble at lifecasting, there’s no reward, as the game logic to using Twitter is fundamentally broken. Unlike FourSquare, or new site TheSixtyOne, there is no form of achievement system.  If anything, you are measured up against people with millions of followers, a completely unattainable goal.  Here’s the opposite: the very first thing I saw on thesixtyone:

Even though the above shot has some confusion, it’s so much closer to telling me something to do, how to do it, and how I benefit from it.  Twitter could easily do the same: “find 10 sports figures (or bands or politicians, etc) and follow them” or “retweet (RT) three people with less followers than you” etc.  This system could scale up pretty high, and create a much more interesting hierarchy for the “twitterati” as well.

The folks at Twitter are clearly smart (and yeah, they got a little lucky along the way, but that’s part of being smart IMHO), and clearly know they need to do something, and soon.  Twitter needs to be able to positively convert new users into active users, and absolutely must work on the “why do I care what someone’s having for lunch?” reputation the site has.  I believe an achievement type of system that rewards “good behavior” is the right way to do it (not to mention major user interface/experience overhauls).  As it stands now, I’ll return to my prior conviction that Twitter has not proven themselves as a viable platform, and must still navigate extremely well and carefully to be the billion dollar company everyone wants them to be.

Posted in General, Web/Internet | Tags: twitter | 67 Comments |

Technology Predictions for 2010

Posted on January 4, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

Every year I predict, every year I get at least one thing right. And many wrong.  But that’s the fun part, right?  This year instead of categorizing based on the technology area, I’m going to organize based on my own scale of how crazy the prediction itself is…

The No-Brainers
Stuff that is almost definitely going to happen. Except the ones that don’t…

  • Twitter growth levels off, though Twitter usage increases. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see the churn rate equal the signup rate as I believe Twitter still has a massive problem with getting new users enchanted with the service.
  • A new version of the iPhone comes out that is incrementally better than the 3GS.
  • Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. (repeat from ’09).
  • CES 2010 exceeds expectations, either in the form of interesting new gadgets or industry-wide product/technology launches.
  • BlackBerry overhauls their “app store” to make it more iPhone-y.
  • Mac OSX market share continues to rise.
  • Superslim TVs (like the Samsung LEDs – drool!) become the hot category for displays.  Many of them are “connected” to various Internet services.

Sounds Feasible
Predictions that are a little more “out there” but don’t require any major convincing.

  • Zynga files to go public, and the entire “social gaming” category gets even more unbelievably outrageous.
  • Yahoo! begins some kind of realistic turnaround. They have far too much foot traffic and too many good properties to continue to fail for so long.
    • Hint to Yahoo! – reinvest in your Flickrs, Deliciouses, and other “interesting” stuff that you are good at, and stay OFF the television and other places that you are not good at.
  • One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice. (repeat from ’09).
  • “Real-time Web” loses steam as a meme. While I’m personally very bullish on the impacts and possibilities, it’s far too niche and far too unimportant to “regular folks” to care about.
    • Probably same for “Cloud Computing”, but since everyone’s just confusing it with “The Internet” it might have more staying power.
  • Apple releases stats on iPhone/iPod/iTunes/app store that are just mind-blowing.
  • 4G/LTE networks spread faster than expected, become viably competitive to the mainstream consumer within the year.
  • The term “Social Media” finally begins to fade across all industries other than Social Media Mavens, Gurus, and Wizards.  The latter reach level 7 and learn how to cast User-Generated Fireball and Community Driven Magic Missile.
  • All non-Apple tablets are craptastic.  Ditto for touchscreen phones.
  • 3DTV gets embedded into lots and lots of TVs, much to the chagrin of consumers who don’t feel the need to look like that goofy guy in Back to the Future, even in the comfort of their own living rooms.
    • Note that in my opinion the only thing that really makes 3D “work” in the home is sports. And even that’s a long shot.

Whatcha Talkin Bout Willis?
Stuff that’s probably not going to happen, but ya never know…

  • Facebook reveals huge revenue numbers, files to go public.
  • Twitter gets acquired by Microsoft.  Yeah, I’m being specific here, but it’s the only logical acquisition, and Microsoft’s got deep enough pockets and have failed at virtually all things Internet.  In a nutshell, Ballmer wants to bring sexy back.
  • The Apple Tablet ships in 2010. Sure all the “in the know” folks are convinced this must happen, but most of them said that about 2009 (and/or that Apple would ship a netbook).
  • Some kind of flexible-display type of device is announced (might even ship).  If I had to hunch (and I of course do), it’d either come from Apple or as a new Kindle.
  • Tru2Way is announced as the new failure of openness from the FCC.
  • All versions of Rock Band and Guitar Hero in 2010 fail to exceed sales stats of 2009 or 2008.
    • Hey guys – remember how that Who Wants to be a Millionaire show was super popular? Then they started running it 4+ nights a week?  Then it moved to daytime?  There’s something called a “saturated market”.  Stop with all the specialty versions and get back to improving the base game, which you can sell add-ons to.
  • Cisco buys a few more gadget makers and technology providers in their attempt to own the Digital Home.  In each case they continue to exhibit poor timing and overpay for slightly outdated platforms.

Can I get a hit of that stuff?
Things that are just plain unrealistic, but I’m saying them anyway.  This way if they happen I can say I was the first to say them.

  • Apple does not ship a tablet. Yes, I contradict the above point, since I do think “where there’s smoke, there’s fire” holds up in general.  However, it is Apple, and this is a terrible device category, and Steve Jobs hates doing things crappily.  BTW, you really should read this piece if you are even remotely following the Apple Tablet news – it’s extremely well written and insightful.
  • Facebook buys Twitter.  It’s not really all that out there as a concept (although I’d wager the personalities behind both companies are big forces against it).  Both companies need to continue rapid growth. Both companies need to create lots of revenue.  Both companies want to be “empires”.  There are many overlapping aspects, but the combined entity could realistically “own” the social network.
  • A new game console launches.  I put this in the long-shot category because nobody is really incented to create a new console right now.  The Xbox 360 is finally hitting it’s strides; the PS3 has way too much cost to recoup, and the Wii is enjoying it’s ride.  If I had to guess, I’d wager on a 4th party entrant (Samsung?).  If one of the big three, I’d pick the next console as a “Wii HD”.
  • A “Lifestreamer” device comes to market.  It’s not quite a phone, but it’s always on, always recording, and has amazing synch with some Web service.  Never takes pictures, only video. Able to “Tag” moments.  Has real-time streaming capabilities.
    • Scoble buys units for himself and entire family. 😉
  • Microsoft (or possibly Yahoo!) goes on a major Internet services acquisition spree, picking up companies like Zoho, bit.ly, Adobe (yes, Adobe), Pandora, Evernote, UserVoice, and more.
  • The TwitterPeek is the #1 hottest selling device of the year!

That’s all folks, see you in 361 days for the results.

Note that I anticipate much snarkiness in the comments.  Have at it.

Posted in General | Tags: 3d, android, Apple, blackberry, cisco, facebook, flexible display, google, guitar hero, iphone, lifestreaming, Microsoft, playstation 3, rock band, tablet, twitter, twitterpeek, wii, xbox, yahoo, zynga | 3 Comments |

Scoring my 2009 Tech Predictions

Posted on January 3, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

I hit about 50% on my 2008 predictions, time to size up my prognosticatory (not a word) skills again. And here’s the original post (though I’ve included all the predictive content again below).

Home Gadgets/Tech

  • Microsoft opens the Xbox 360 platform even further, enables an “app store for the home” that spans well beyond games. WRONG – while there are many new features and some openness, it’s not even close to my prediction.
  • Blu-ray sputters along, but not enough conclusive evidence (in other words, revenue) happens to either shut down the format altogether, nor to get consumers to adopt it. RIGHT – stats on Blu-ray for 2009 were unimpressive.  It’ll be physical media versus the newspaper industry to see who kicks the bucket first.
  • As the FCC-mandated digital TV transition approaches, the hype machine reaches full effect and very convincing pieces try to show the plight of the very few.  After it’s all over, virtually nobody complains loudly. RIGHT – oh yeah, there was a transition last year, wasn’t there…
  • One or both of Home Automation and/or Interactive TV returns to prominence in techie chatter, but neither make any additional inroads into actual homes. WRONG – the hype machine stays in neutral
  • Pasting from 2008 predictions: Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. WRONG – Droid came instead…  but I’m putting this back on the list (to-come) for ’10.

Computers

  • Netbook sales grow well, but not astoundingly so.  The majority of users ignore them due to a lack of actual value present in the device (especially those of us with big grubby fingers). UNKNOWN – I left this one too vague and could go either way on it.
  • One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop with great Vista drivers that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice. WRONG – MacBook sales just continued to climb relative to PC Laptops instead
  • A Linux-based computer powered with a really great GUI and OpenOffice comes to market from an established brand. WRONG – although Android netbooks are supposedly coming next year, but that’s definitely not a 2009 thing.
  • USB 3.0 launches, causing massive annoyance and confusion to consumers.  I still can’t believe they didn’t give it a different name than USB.  Terrible decision. WRONG – the format launched, but nobody really cared.

Mobile Gadgets/Tech

  • More lousy wannabe touchscreen phones ship, none compete 1:1 with the iPhone. RIGHT – so very very right.
  • A really good GPS+phone combo device comes to market. WRONG – I shouldn’t have said “really good”
  • The BlackBerry Storm is rapidly replaced with some better device from RIM. RIGHT – but then again they did name it Storm again…
  • Mobile commerce replaces location-based services as the hot mobile trend. MIXED – they’re both pretty hot, but FourSquare really did charm the pants off the tech bloggers.
  • US cellular companies wage a price war, making several features (ahem, texting?) cheaper, along with better priced packages across the board. WRONG – and oligopoly enjoys another year.
  • No truly impressive Android phones ship from anyone. WRONG – the Droid and Droid Eris are both impressive (though still no iPhones – and I *have* an Eris)

Events/News

  • CES 2009 is notably smaller than 2008, yet the important stuff that goes on at the show is business as usual.  It’s all the fringe people who are absent, and the same who complain about the lack of cool new stuff at CES.  Which won’t be a surprise due to the rarity of cool new stuff actually shown at CES! RIGHT – and ditto again in 2010
  • Macworld is just the first of many shows to also announce downsizing, including Streaming Media, Web 2.0 Expo, etc.  2009 will be a bad year for the tech conference industry. RIGHT – Macworld? Streaming Media West was a ghost town. Web what.point.oh?
  • Apple introduces only evolutionary products, nothing astounding or revolutionary. Let’s face it, sooner or later the well runs dry, and this is the time for the company to expand its market.  Yes, we’ll get a new phone, laptop, and ipod, but I doubt we see anything as profound as in the past 2 years. RIGHT – although I do very much like my 27″ iMac, it’s not revolutionary.  Maybe in 2010, we’ll see.
  • A largish black monolith with dimensions 1 by 4 by 9 is discovered. RIGHT – but I can’t tell you about it.

Web/Online

  • Facebook reaches a user base of 200 hundred million users.  It’s growth ratethen  slows and the alarm bells sound loudly throughout the media, regardless of actual success metrics. MIXED – bit off more than I should’ve with that one.
  • Twitter finally announces its business model, which underwhelms everyone.  Not that it won’t be a good model, just that it will have been (wow is that passive voice or what?) built up with far more hype than can possibly be delivered. MIXED – they didn’t really announce anything specific, but are making revenue, and the hype train is unquestionably fully loaded.
  • Many “web 2.0″ companies face major shrinkage as the funds simply don’t come back to them again.  Companies with huge traffic bases or, more importantly, solid revenue models will be fine, but the rest start fading away (and they take their weird names with them) RIGHT – look around, the air’s a lot thinner these days
  • Several “prominent” blogs/bloggers retire due to a lack of revenue, exhaustion, lack of interesting new content to write about, etc. WRONG – was really expecting this to happen, but I didn’t see much of it.
  • Web 3.0 does not arrive. RIGHT – duh.

Total count:

  • RIGHT: 10 (9 without the monolith)
  • WRONG: 10
  • OTHER: 4

Not too shabby, not too overwhelming.  I’m still writing the 2010 edition, so hopefully nothing monumental will happen before I can publish it!

Posted in General | Tags: 2009, 2010, android, Blu-ray, ces, droid, facebook, gps, iphone, monilith, netbook, predictions, twitter, usb 3.0, Xbox 360 | 13 Comments |

Let the blogging recommence

Posted on December 23, 2009 by Jeremy Toeman

Between the family & kids, the job(s), the venture(s), and everything else, I’ve let blogging slip.  For shame.  I’ve been sitting on a few different reviews and other pieces, all 80% written, for weeks and weeks now.  For shame.

But no longer!

And now, in beautiful non-sequitur format, here’s a montage I put together of all the times in the show Arrested Development where they do the “her?” gag. 

Let the great experiment begin!!

Posted in General | Tags: arrested development, blogging, busy | 1 Comment |

Why Newspapers are like Creamed Spinach

Posted on September 3, 2009 by Jeremy Toeman

When I was a kid we had regular meals at my grandparents’ house. Much of the food was delicious (in my memories if nothing else), with the glaring exception of my grandmother’s creamed spinach. Granted, it wasn’t there with every serving, but when it came, I shuddered. I literally couldn’t stomach it, and played little tricks to “hide” it on the plate, the table, the floor, or, best of all, someone else’s plate.  I hated it, and it’s the only food to stand out in my memory as something so loathed.  But I’m sure everyone has a similar dish, or possibly even an entire food group, they disliked when they were children.

I’ve been thinking a lot recently about the demise/impending demise of newspapers (an event some people seem almost giddy about), and I’ve come to realize that it does far more than sadden me, I find it pretty scary.  You see, the one thing a newspaper did unique to all other news media is it effectively “pushed” stories on you, like it or not. Sure you can turn the page or even a whole section, but the process of reading the format necessitated people reading content they would not otherwise choose to read.

unbalanced-newsOnline readers and aggregation services do a good job at pulling together the content sources an individual selects, but they do nothing to deliver unasked for content. This is a problem.  As people are becoming increasingly dependent on these tools, they are becoming increasingly resistant to consume any content which does not appropriately hit their filter.  Further, the ability to simply click click click away makes it all-too easy that readers will abandon content mid-stride (how many readers did I lose in that sentence alone).

Analogy time!  Giving people the ability to complete select, filter, control and govern their news streams and sources is like giving children the ability to select the food for their meals. Just as in news people are flocking to gossip rags, trade publications/blogs, and other narrowly filtered selections, children would eat meals consisting of sweets and snacks.  Neither are healthy.  Just as children need their brussel sprouts, cauliflower, spinach, broccoli and other never-selected items, adults need to be exposed to news content other than of their “liking”.

google-news-balancedWe live in an era with unprecedented access to information, yet at a time when people are considered less informed than in recent generations.  And to be clear, this problem is spanning multiple generations (not just the youth), multiple geographies (yes coastal folks, you’re probably worse off than your “flyover” state cousins), and all other demographics. If I can make one simple recommendation it’s to pick a given news source you might not naturally prefer, on a topic (hint: international news) you might not always care about, and insert it into your news streams.  I may not have liked that creamed spinach my grandmother made, but thankfully my parents had enough good sense to make sure a few bites of it did not get hidden under the tablecloth.

Posted in General | Tags: dumb, information, informed, new media, newspapers | 3 Comments |
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About

Jeremy Toeman is a seasoned Product leader with over 20 years experience in the convergence of digital media, mobile entertainment, social entertainment, smart TV and consumer technology. Prior ventures and projects include CNET, Viggle/Dijit/Nextguide, Sling Media, VUDU, Clicker, DivX, Rovi, Mediabolic, Boxee, and many other consumer technology companies. This blog represents his personal opinion and outlook on things.

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