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Scoring my 2009 Tech Predictions

Posted on January 3, 2010 by Jeremy Toeman

I hit about 50% on my 2008 predictions, time to size up my prognosticatory (not a word) skills again. And here’s the original post (though I’ve included all the predictive content again below).

Home Gadgets/Tech

  • Microsoft opens the Xbox 360 platform even further, enables an “app store for the home” that spans well beyond games. WRONG – while there are many new features and some openness, it’s not even close to my prediction.
  • Blu-ray sputters along, but not enough conclusive evidence (in other words, revenue) happens to either shut down the format altogether, nor to get consumers to adopt it. RIGHT – stats on Blu-ray for 2009 were unimpressive.  It’ll be physical media versus the newspaper industry to see who kicks the bucket first.
  • As the FCC-mandated digital TV transition approaches, the hype machine reaches full effect and very convincing pieces try to show the plight of the very few.  After it’s all over, virtually nobody complains loudly. RIGHT – oh yeah, there was a transition last year, wasn’t there…
  • One or both of Home Automation and/or Interactive TV returns to prominence in techie chatter, but neither make any additional inroads into actual homes. WRONG – the hype machine stays in neutral
  • Pasting from 2008 predictions: Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. WRONG – Droid came instead…  but I’m putting this back on the list (to-come) for ’10.

Computers

  • Netbook sales grow well, but not astoundingly so.  The majority of users ignore them due to a lack of actual value present in the device (especially those of us with big grubby fingers). UNKNOWN – I left this one too vague and could go either way on it.
  • One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop with great Vista drivers that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice. WRONG – MacBook sales just continued to climb relative to PC Laptops instead
  • A Linux-based computer powered with a really great GUI and OpenOffice comes to market from an established brand. WRONG – although Android netbooks are supposedly coming next year, but that’s definitely not a 2009 thing.
  • USB 3.0 launches, causing massive annoyance and confusion to consumers.  I still can’t believe they didn’t give it a different name than USB.  Terrible decision. WRONG – the format launched, but nobody really cared.

Mobile Gadgets/Tech

  • More lousy wannabe touchscreen phones ship, none compete 1:1 with the iPhone. RIGHT – so very very right.
  • A really good GPS+phone combo device comes to market. WRONG – I shouldn’t have said “really good”
  • The BlackBerry Storm is rapidly replaced with some better device from RIM. RIGHT – but then again they did name it Storm again…
  • Mobile commerce replaces location-based services as the hot mobile trend. MIXED – they’re both pretty hot, but FourSquare really did charm the pants off the tech bloggers.
  • US cellular companies wage a price war, making several features (ahem, texting?) cheaper, along with better priced packages across the board. WRONG – and oligopoly enjoys another year.
  • No truly impressive Android phones ship from anyone. WRONG – the Droid and Droid Eris are both impressive (though still no iPhones – and I *have* an Eris)

Events/News

  • CES 2009 is notably smaller than 2008, yet the important stuff that goes on at the show is business as usual.  It’s all the fringe people who are absent, and the same who complain about the lack of cool new stuff at CES.  Which won’t be a surprise due to the rarity of cool new stuff actually shown at CES! RIGHT – and ditto again in 2010
  • Macworld is just the first of many shows to also announce downsizing, including Streaming Media, Web 2.0 Expo, etc.  2009 will be a bad year for the tech conference industry. RIGHT – Macworld? Streaming Media West was a ghost town. Web what.point.oh?
  • Apple introduces only evolutionary products, nothing astounding or revolutionary. Let’s face it, sooner or later the well runs dry, and this is the time for the company to expand its market.  Yes, we’ll get a new phone, laptop, and ipod, but I doubt we see anything as profound as in the past 2 years. RIGHT – although I do very much like my 27″ iMac, it’s not revolutionary.  Maybe in 2010, we’ll see.
  • A largish black monolith with dimensions 1 by 4 by 9 is discovered. RIGHT – but I can’t tell you about it.

Web/Online

  • Facebook reaches a user base of 200 hundred million users.  It’s growth ratethen  slows and the alarm bells sound loudly throughout the media, regardless of actual success metrics. MIXED – bit off more than I should’ve with that one.
  • Twitter finally announces its business model, which underwhelms everyone.  Not that it won’t be a good model, just that it will have been (wow is that passive voice or what?) built up with far more hype than can possibly be delivered. MIXED – they didn’t really announce anything specific, but are making revenue, and the hype train is unquestionably fully loaded.
  • Many “web 2.0″ companies face major shrinkage as the funds simply don’t come back to them again.  Companies with huge traffic bases or, more importantly, solid revenue models will be fine, but the rest start fading away (and they take their weird names with them) RIGHT – look around, the air’s a lot thinner these days
  • Several “prominent” blogs/bloggers retire due to a lack of revenue, exhaustion, lack of interesting new content to write about, etc. WRONG – was really expecting this to happen, but I didn’t see much of it.
  • Web 3.0 does not arrive. RIGHT – duh.

Total count:

  • RIGHT: 10 (9 without the monolith)
  • WRONG: 10
  • OTHER: 4

Not too shabby, not too overwhelming.  I’m still writing the 2010 edition, so hopefully nothing monumental will happen before I can publish it!

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Posted in General | Tags: 2009, 2010, android, Blu-ray, ces, droid, facebook, gps, iphone, monilith, netbook, predictions, twitter, usb 3.0, Xbox 360 | 13 Comments
« The Third Age of Gadgets nears its end
Technology Predictions for 2010 »

13 thoughts on “Scoring my 2009 Tech Predictions”

  1. Robert Scoble says:
    January 3, 2010 at 10:27 pm

    Tech conferences had awful year? You should have seen LeWeb. Bigger than in 2008 and now the biggest independent web conference. Some are dying and some are thriving.

    Reply
    • Jeremy Toeman says:
      January 4, 2010 at 8:23 am

      @Robert – need to look at more than just one little event. CES alone lost *tens* of thousands of visitors, as did other big shows. the small events (cool as they may be) do not make up for the foot traffic…

      Reply
  2. Vince Masten says:
    January 4, 2010 at 4:00 am

    I still think you’re being too hard on Blu-Ray and physical media in general. A cursory Google of “Blu-Ray growth statistics 2009” brought up this article (http://bit.ly/7KiU7S) from the Hollywood Reporter back in May detailing the 72% growth in player sales in Q1 compared to 2008. I know your standard retort is that downloadable/streaming media is “good enough” in terms of quality, but I think even the average person can tell the difference between a Blu-Ray and a Netflix “HD” streaming movie. As compression gets better, this difference will become less apparent, but by the time that happens, we’ll have 2k and 4k TVs and media being pushed at us and the whole arms race will begin again.

    And by the way, I swear I’m not just a troll who loves to contradict you whenever I think you’re wrong. I read your blog because most of the time it offers interesting insights. But occasionally I feel compelled to offer my own.

    Reply
  3. Ben says:
    January 4, 2010 at 7:39 am

    First off it’s Blu-ray, not Blu-Ray, but anyways. Your definition of sputtered along is interesting to me. Personally I’d define sputtered along as no growth, while Blu-ray had lots of growth in 2009.

    I’d predict that all DVDs and Blu-ray Discs will be bundled together (so one skew instead of two) along with a digital copy and people will buy them for two reasons. One is that people are comfortable with physical media and two is that Hollywood can prevent the value of Netflix/Redbox from existing in the digital world which means that discs will continue to be cheaper to rent.

    Reply
  4. Jeremy Toeman says:
    January 4, 2010 at 8:24 am

    @Vince – your comment is *far* from being a troll, it’s great to have people add thoughts like that!

    Regarding Blu-ray vs DVD or Netflix or VUDU – yes, even the average person can tell *a* difference. But will they pay for it? Not yet…

    Reply
  5. Jeremy Toeman says:
    January 4, 2010 at 8:27 am

    @Ben – I’d be curious to see a chart of Blu-ray’s growth put alongside DVD’s growth. I think that’d be pretty telling. Could be a good EngHD post too. 😉

    Reply
  6. DZ says:
    January 4, 2010 at 8:38 am

    Blu-ray significantly increased their footprint in consumer homes due to massive price drops and perhaps the realization that the players also handle DVD. Additionally, many Blu-ray packages now ship with DVD and digital copies which should help ease and increase the transition. BRD quality still exceeds digital downloads or streaming. It didn’t set the world on fire, but I think there was big growth. The top post on ZNF in 12/09 was related to a specific Blu-ray player (Samsung 1600) that a lot of people must have received for Christmas.

    Reply
  7. Ben says:
    January 4, 2010 at 8:46 am

    You know I looked for one before I commented, but it appears that the final numbers for 2009 are not out yet. Sales of titles were up this Holiday season and Blu-ray players were near the top of the list this Black Friday according to NPD.

    But yeah, the chart would show a decline in DVD sales and growth in Blu-ray, but not enough to keep physical media flat. I’m not trying to say that Blu-ray will cause the physical media market to grow, just prevent it from shrinking. If that is what you mean but sputter, then we are in agreement. But I for one am glad that Vudu and iTunes/Zune are not the only options, otherwise I’d be paying $6 to rent a HD movie instead of $3. (notice none of my arguments are based on quality)

    Reply
  8. DZ says:
    January 4, 2010 at 9:00 am

    After my HD DVD gamble didn’t pay off, I’ve sat on the physical media sidelines other than a PS3. HD downloads/streaming (Amazon, Xbox, Vudu, Netflix) are usually good enough quality-wise, as Jeremy suggests, and allow more spontaneity. If I watched as many movies as Ben, though, I’d surely go bankrupt.

    Reply
  9. Ben says:
    January 4, 2010 at 9:22 am

    Just checked Feedflicks and I average 9.7 movies a month. So yeah, at $6 a movie for Vudu, I’d spent $60 instead of $16 for Netflix — I use Vudu because its HDX is the only quality that is comparable to Blu-ray. I have used Vudu about 3 times in the past 90 days though.

    And as far as value you don’t even want to get into physical vs digital. I recently bought UP for my daughter and for $10 (online coupon) I got the Blu-ray Disc, DVD and a Digital Copy, while iTunes sells the movie in SD for $20 (obviously this was on sale, but when is the last time a digital download was on sale?)

    Reply
  10. DZ says:
    January 4, 2010 at 9:37 am

    Have you tried the new Zune HD on the Xbox? Wonder how you think it compares. Also Vudu’s CDN HD has a lesser bitrate than the original standalone unit.

    Reply
  11. Ben says:
    January 4, 2010 at 9:41 am

    No, I haven’t tried the Zune 1080p on the Xbox. I’d bet it is comparable, but as a rule I avoid the Dashboard like the plague. Maybe I’ll try it the next time I feel like watching a movie and not waiting for it to be delivered.

    Reply
  12. Vince Masten says:
    January 4, 2010 at 11:56 am

    I just feel like every time I post (which isn’t often), it’s to argue.

    Regardless, I will say that I haven’t tried the Zune 1080p stuff either, but I feel like there’s not a whole lot of value in paying $6 a pop for the privilege of instant gratification, as opposed to putting the same movie in the Netflix queue. The fact that I can get better picture and sound by waiting is just icing on the cake.

    Reply

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Jeremy Toeman is a seasoned Product leader with over 20 years experience in the convergence of digital media, mobile entertainment, social entertainment, smart TV and consumer technology. Prior ventures and projects include CNET, Viggle/Dijit/Nextguide, Sling Media, VUDU, Clicker, DivX, Rovi, Mediabolic, Boxee, and many other consumer technology companies. This blog represents his personal opinion and outlook on things.

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