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If AppleTV is 1/3 of the market, who's selling the other 2/3?

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A few blogs are reporting about Strategy Analytics’ recent claim:

Strategy Analytics projects that the market will reach almost 12 million units globally this year, with Apple alone predicted to sell nearly four million devices.

Wow. Pretty bold claim.  Let’s deconstruct it.  Let’s assume it’s a correct prediction:

AppleTV will sell 4 million units, leaving ~8 million for “the rest”.

what do you mean "and the rest"?

Here are “the rest”: Roku, Western Digital, D-Link (Boxee), and… er… I don’t know, how about Logitech? Maybe a few other smaller players, but nothing you and I are buying in a Best Buy, Target, Walmart or Amazon – the only places that matter at all for moving these kinds of numbers.  Yes, there are some other odds and ends in the bizarre category known as Internet Set Top Boxes, but they aren’t mustering up sufficient sales to count here.

Roku: I’ve heard all sorts of things, but lets use publicly available information: as of last January, Roku hit 1 million devices sold.  I’ll assume they’ve at least doubled that in 2011, possibly as much as tripled, due to new products, more viability, and lower prices.  That said, they are now up against an ever-improving AppleTV product.  Even so, let’s assume they can hold pace against the world’s largest marketing machine for digital lifestyle products, and sell another 3 million units in 2012.

Western Digital: You probably haven’t heard of it, but that little gadget your buddy has for watching photos on his TV is called the WDTV Live, and they’ve sold somewhere in the 1-3 million unit range (I know that’s a big range, but it seems pretty fair based on some poking around).  Not a bad showing for a company known for making hard drives.  But in the presence of both Apple and Roku, it’s a pretty fair bet that they aren’t edging out of third place for future market share.  I’ll again be kind with 1.5 million units sold in 2012.

From these guys, only for your TV. Perfect.

D-Link (Boxee Box): Disclosure: I was a core part of the launch teams for both Boxee and the Boxee Box by D-Link, and wish to see them extremely successful, though I am no longer professionally engaged with either company in any way.  And that said, I don’t think they’re anywhere close in numbers yet, and don’t see them hitting the million unit mark any time soon (specifically in regards to unit sales, this has nothing to do with downloads, active community, or positive thoughts). Optimistic high end prediction in 2012: 750K units.

Logitech: $100 million loss.  Let’s move along shall we?

Have the factory spin up about a bajillion of them, nothing will go wrong.

Everyone else: I’ll generously band them all together, and predict they maybe move 500K units.

Unknown entry by traditional consumer electronics brand: Look, anyone can make a media streamer, in fact you can make an adequate one by buying off the shelf parts and licensing open software platforms.  But even the formerly mighty Sony and the young stalwart Vizio is going to have a tricky road in getting a product out in this category that doesn’t include a full end-to-end solution.  And there just aren’t enough to go around.  Maybe Amazon could have some kind of Kindle Fire: Home Media Edition or something, but something tells me they are still getting their feet wet in hardware and aren’t going to jump too rashly into the space (though I’ve been known to be wrong about Amazon and hardware in the past).  Top guess: 250K units.

Grand Total Units Sold, Highly Optimistic Prediction Mode: 6 million units.  Giving Apple TV, with 4 million sales, a 40% market share.  And that’s me being *quite* optimistic, and I’d wager it’s more like a grand total of 4 for the rest.  Or less.  Giving Apple TV a significantly larger potential – and by the way, it’s not exactly Apple’s strongest product.

But their math was so good!

This whole story just reminds me of the time when I was reviewing an analyst report for the *exact same space* back in 2003 when we had just shipped the HP Digital Media Receiver (the first mainstream Internet Set Top Box, by the way).  This was, by the way, before consumers had Flips or other simple video recording devices, digital cameras were mostly a novelty, and there was no YouTube, Netflix streaming, or pretty much anything else to watch on the darned thing.  But still, the potential!

The analyst predicted hundreds of thousands of “streaming video boxes” sold in 2003.  The only snag was, we were literally the only game in town, and we had predicted tens of thousands at best.  When I spoke with the analysts, they said they predicted several years forward, based on consumer interest, to arrive at several million units a year.  Then, they backtracked it into 2003 and, boom, hundreds of thousands.  What could possibly go wrong with this kind of logic?

They sold literally dozens of them

Predictions for WWDC 2010

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Watch live video from Jeremy Toeman on Justin.tv

Summarizing my video, my predictions:

New iPhone, possible OS X and/or iWork update, lots of stats, demo’s of iPhone 4.0 OS, no cheap Apple TV refresh, no iPhone on Verizon

Links I reference in the video:

What Did Jobs Do?

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In proper form,I shall now review my own predictions of the iPad from my first two posts on the subject (parts 1 and 2).  Let’s start with…

What I got wrong:

Productivity Apps
I said: “Unlike the Microsoft approach to “ecosystem” – where everything other than the Xbox is able to view and edit Excel spreadsheets – my hunch is the iPad is all about lifestyle, the Internet, and entertainment.  I’d guess there’s a native version of Safari, some kind of simple email and calendaring, and that’s about it.”

In reality: native new version of iWork!

Reaction: I’m pretty surprised by this move. I certainly see the case for casual work-like content creation (make a simple budget, add some numbers, etc), but figured this would be much more of an afterthought. Further, without an input mechanism (camera – more below) beyond the touchscreen, I don’t quite feel the product “fits” as a content creator.

Augmented Reality/Content Creation
I said: “I’d predict there are several native applications and services that provide very cool augmented reality features.  I’m firmly in the camp of one or more cameras on the iPad, and I think Apple will include one or more fun exploits of the concept from the get-go.”

In reality: zero cameras.

Reaction: This is unquestionably the most questionable aspect of the iPad (like how I did that?). There’s one in the Nano, but not here? Just doesn’t make sense to me, nor most of the people I spoke with during and post the event.  My colleague Jim Schaff thinks this is effectively a beancounter’s decision – the numbers were run that showed adding a camera could/would cannibalize from either MacBook or iPhone sales, and thus the camera was dropped.  Other folks I’ve spoken with theorize it’ll show up in a rapid revision of the product (something I don’t agree with, as they had no specific reason to rush the iPad to market, and could easily have waited until it was working).  My other theory here is that it’s not a hardware issue, but a product/software complexity issue, and the overall impact of adding a camera would have created too significant a product development challenge in the short term.  Gotta crawl before ya run.

Hardware ins/outs
I said: “It’ll have the iPod connector, USB, DisplayPort and an SD card slot.  A webcam is highly probably, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an IR interface as well.”

In reality: custom dock connector, USB, no other ports.

Reaction: I’m disappointed at the lack of SD card reader, especially in context of the photo frame use-case.

What I got right:

The name
I said: “iPad”.  😉

Heavy software emphasis
I said: “Everything that ships on the iPad will be designed completely to work in a touch fashion, or it won’t be included period.  I’m still torn between whether it’ll be a version of OS X or a version of the iPhone OS, but either way, the device will ship with oodles of applicable software, custom-built to be great in gesture, touch, multi-touch, or even by looking at it the right way.”

Closed app infrastructure
I said: “I expect the iPad will sit somewhere between the iPhone, with individually manually approved apps, and the OS X platform.  Based on the reports today that some apps are supposedly already being run on the iPad (of course these reports prove absolutely nothing, as it could either be an updated iPhone with a new OS, or simply another “labs” product running around campus.  but where would modern tech blogging be without unsubstantiated rumor circulation and amplification?) , my leaning is a differentiated version of the iPhone OS, with more leniency in app approval, but still not open. Many will complain, many will profit, and many will love it.”

Single carrier support
I said: “And since the former isn’t very Apple-y, it’s much more likely there’s only one carrier involved” and “It’ll have 3G services built-in.  I’d hope for Verizon, but that limits Apple to its international possibilities.  And there’s no way they’d waste the money on two different 3G chips.”

Note that I’m surprised, but not shocked, that it’s still just AT&T.

Media Slate as product definition
I said: “So picture a device that’s sleek and sexy, can play back movies, TV shows (including live TV), Internet radio (lala), show pictures/slideshows, play simple games (app store), and be otherwise completely entertaining.  It connects from anywhere, has enough internal storage to last a nationwide flight, and is all about fun.  Further, it comes with numerous context access options, including free services, a la carte purchasing/rentals, and subscription options.  It probably also has a Webcam and native iChat support. I’m fairly bullish on this concept, as it seems to fit in with the Apple iLifestyle very well, and makes for a useful product.”

Parting thoughts:

I’m actually going to write another blog post with my specific thoughts on the iPad (and I’m the only guy doing that!).  My quickest reactions are that I’m impressed with the price point, but shocked about the lack of camera.  I think they *will* sell millions of units, and it’ll be more compelling to a more mainstream audience than many others think, though I still find flaws in the overall offering.  In reality, this device is actually a very good alternate “home computer” for the average person who only needs web surfing, email, media playback, and entertainment. It’s certainly more compelling than a Netbook.

For some final fun, here’s the blog post I wrote predicting roughly this device. Of course that was back in July 2007.

Scoring my 2009 Tech Predictions

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I hit about 50% on my 2008 predictions, time to size up my prognosticatory (not a word) skills again. And here’s the original post (though I’ve included all the predictive content again below).

Home Gadgets/Tech

  • Microsoft opens the Xbox 360 platform even further, enables an “app store for the home” that spans well beyond games. WRONG – while there are many new features and some openness, it’s not even close to my prediction.
  • Blu-ray sputters along, but not enough conclusive evidence (in other words, revenue) happens to either shut down the format altogether, nor to get consumers to adopt it. RIGHT – stats on Blu-ray for 2009 were unimpressive.  It’ll be physical media versus the newspaper industry to see who kicks the bucket first.
  • As the FCC-mandated digital TV transition approaches, the hype machine reaches full effect and very convincing pieces try to show the plight of the very few.  After it’s all over, virtually nobody complains loudly. RIGHT – oh yeah, there was a transition last year, wasn’t there…
  • One or both of Home Automation and/or Interactive TV returns to prominence in techie chatter, but neither make any additional inroads into actual homes. WRONG – the hype machine stays in neutral
  • Pasting from 2008 predictions: Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. WRONG – Droid came instead…  but I’m putting this back on the list (to-come) for ’10.

Computers

  • Netbook sales grow well, but not astoundingly so.  The majority of users ignore them due to a lack of actual value present in the device (especially those of us with big grubby fingers). UNKNOWN – I left this one too vague and could go either way on it.
  • One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop with great Vista drivers that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice. WRONG – MacBook sales just continued to climb relative to PC Laptops instead
  • A Linux-based computer powered with a really great GUI and OpenOffice comes to market from an established brand. WRONG – although Android netbooks are supposedly coming next year, but that’s definitely not a 2009 thing.
  • USB 3.0 launches, causing massive annoyance and confusion to consumers.  I still can’t believe they didn’t give it a different name than USB.  Terrible decision. WRONG – the format launched, but nobody really cared.

Mobile Gadgets/Tech

  • More lousy wannabe touchscreen phones ship, none compete 1:1 with the iPhone. RIGHT – so very very right.
  • A really good GPS+phone combo device comes to market. WRONG – I shouldn’t have said “really good”
  • The BlackBerry Storm is rapidly replaced with some better device from RIM. RIGHT – but then again they did name it Storm again…
  • Mobile commerce replaces location-based services as the hot mobile trend. MIXED – they’re both pretty hot, but FourSquare really did charm the pants off the tech bloggers.
  • US cellular companies wage a price war, making several features (ahem, texting?) cheaper, along with better priced packages across the board. WRONG – and oligopoly enjoys another year.
  • No truly impressive Android phones ship from anyone. WRONG – the Droid and Droid Eris are both impressive (though still no iPhones – and I *have* an Eris)

Events/News

  • CES 2009 is notably smaller than 2008, yet the important stuff that goes on at the show is business as usual.  It’s all the fringe people who are absent, and the same who complain about the lack of cool new stuff at CES.  Which won’t be a surprise due to the rarity of cool new stuff actually shown at CES! RIGHT – and ditto again in 2010
  • Macworld is just the first of many shows to also announce downsizing, including Streaming Media, Web 2.0 Expo, etc.  2009 will be a bad year for the tech conference industry. RIGHT – Macworld? Streaming Media West was a ghost town. Web what.point.oh?
  • Apple introduces only evolutionary products, nothing astounding or revolutionary. Let’s face it, sooner or later the well runs dry, and this is the time for the company to expand its market.  Yes, we’ll get a new phone, laptop, and ipod, but I doubt we see anything as profound as in the past 2 years. RIGHT – although I do very much like my 27″ iMac, it’s not revolutionary.  Maybe in 2010, we’ll see.
  • A largish black monolith with dimensions 1 by 4 by 9 is discovered. RIGHT – but I can’t tell you about it.

Web/Online

  • Facebook reaches a user base of 200 hundred million users.  It’s growth ratethen  slows and the alarm bells sound loudly throughout the media, regardless of actual success metrics. MIXED – bit off more than I should’ve with that one.
  • Twitter finally announces its business model, which underwhelms everyone.  Not that it won’t be a good model, just that it will have been (wow is that passive voice or what?) built up with far more hype than can possibly be delivered. MIXED – they didn’t really announce anything specific, but are making revenue, and the hype train is unquestionably fully loaded.
  • Many “web 2.0″ companies face major shrinkage as the funds simply don’t come back to them again.  Companies with huge traffic bases or, more importantly, solid revenue models will be fine, but the rest start fading away (and they take their weird names with them) RIGHT – look around, the air’s a lot thinner these days
  • Several “prominent” blogs/bloggers retire due to a lack of revenue, exhaustion, lack of interesting new content to write about, etc. WRONG – was really expecting this to happen, but I didn’t see much of it.
  • Web 3.0 does not arrive. RIGHT – duh.

Total count:

  • RIGHT: 10 (9 without the monolith)
  • WRONG: 10
  • OTHER: 4

Not too shabby, not too overwhelming.  I’m still writing the 2010 edition, so hopefully nothing monumental will happen before I can publish it!

Technology Predictions for 2009

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I ran about 50/50 with last year’s technology predictions.  Some were fairly safe, some a little more “out there”.  Here’s my thoughts for what’s on the docket for 2009…

Home Gadgets/Tech

  • Microsoft opens the Xbox 360 platform even further, enables an “app store for the home” that spans well beyond games.
  • Blu-ray sputters along, but not enough conclusive evidence (in other words, revenue) happens to either shut down the format altogether, nor to get consumers to adopt it.
  • As the FCC-mandated digital TV transition approaches, the hype machine reaches full effect and very convincing pieces try to show the plight of the very few.  After it’s all over, virtually nobody complains loudly.
  • One or both of Home Automation and/or Interactive TV returns to prominence in techie chatter, but neither make any additional inroads into actual homes.
  • Pasting from 2008 predictions: Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future.

Computers

  • Netbook sales grow well, but not astoundingly so.  The majority of users ignore them due to a lack of actual value present in the device (especially those of us with big grubby fingers).
  • One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop with great Vista drivers that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice.
  • A Linux-based computer powered with a really great GUI and OpenOffice comes to market from an established brand.
  • USB 3.0 launches, causing massive annoyance and confusion to consumers.  I still can’t believe they didn’t give it a different name than USB.  Terrible decision.

Mobile Gadgets/Tech

  • More lousy wannabe touchscreen phones ship, none compete 1:1 with the iPhone.
  • A really good GPS+phone combo device comes to market.
  • The BlackBerry Storm is rapidly replaced with some better device from RIM.
  • Mobile commerce replaces location-based services as the hot mobile trend.
  • US cellular companies wage a price war, making several features (ahem, texting?) cheaper, along with better priced packages across the board.
  • No truly impressive Android phones ship from anyone.

Events/News

  • CES 2009 is notably smaller than 2008, yet the important stuff that goes on at the show is business as usual.  It’s all the fringe people who are absent, and the same who complain about the lack of cool new stuff at CES.  Which won’t be a surprise due to the rarity of cool new stuff actually shown at CES!
  • Macworld is just the first of many shows to also announce downsizing, including Streaming Media, Web 2.0 Expo, etc.  2009 will be a bad year for the tech conference industry.
  • Apple introduces only evolutionary products, nothing astounding or revolutionary. Let’s face it, sooner or later the well runs dry, and this is the time for the company to expand its market.  Yes, we’ll get a new phone, laptop, and ipod, but I doubt we see anything as profound as in the past 2 years.
  • A largish black monolith with dimensions 1 by 4 by 9 is discovered.

Web/Online

  • Facebook reaches a user base of 200 hundred million users.  It’s growth ratethen  slows and the alarm bells sound loudly throughout the media, regardless of actual success metrics.
  • Twitter finally announces its business model, which underwhelms everyone.  Not that it won’t be a good model, just that it will have been (wow is that passive voice or what?) built up with far more hype than can possibly be delivered.
  • Many “web 2.0” companies face major shrinkage as the funds simply don’t come back to them again.  Companies with huge traffic bases or, more importantly, solid revenue models will be fine, but the rest start fading away (and they take their weird names with them)
  • Several “prominent” blogs/bloggers retire due to a lack of revenue, exhaustion, lack of interesting new content to write about, etc.
  • Web 3.0 does not arrive.

That’s all I can really muster up for 2009, guess I’m having clairvoyance block.  Regardless, I’m pretty excited for the year.  Have the new house coming.  A little family expansion planned for Q1.  Oh, and I’ll be involved with some other cool new startups.  But I guess that’s getting to be par for the course, eh?  🙂  I sincerely can’t wait to tell y’all about one of them, it’s my own little brainchild in fact.  All in due time, though, all in due time.

Scoring my 2008 Tech Predictions

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I’m about the least unopinionated guy I know.  362 days ago, I made a whole bunch of predictions.  Let’s see how I scored…

TV Technology

  • Every major cable company will increase it’s rates by more than 3%. Nobody will complain, and our government will (again) fail to protect us from them.  — Well, I don’t really have the time to review all the packages from all the service providers, but I know my rates went up.  I’ll score this a Yes.
  • A resolution above 1080p starts appearing in demos and labs, I’d predict a bump up into the 4000 vertical lines space.  — Yup.
  • Bluray and HD-DVD continue to duke it out while consumers continue to not care.  — Well, HD failed, and Blu-ray is still in the doldrums.  But, since my prediction was they’d be fighting through the year, I guess this is a No.
  • One of Hulu, Joost, etc get integrated into the Xbox 360 and/or PS3. — Netflix on Xbox for the Yes.
  • Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. — Nope, didn’t happen (though I still believe they are working on it).
  • Anyone who is not a telephone company that tries to launch an IP-streaming set top device has a very rough year. — Vudu, Sezmi, etc.  Yes.
  • Despite near-constant predictions of their demise, TiVo makes it through another year, possibly getting acquired (by DirecTV, Comcast, Netflix, Blockbuster, or someone out of the blue like Amazon or eBay). — Yes.

Portable Devices That Are Not Cell Phones

  • Zune 3.0 launches. It’s very very good. Further, iPod’s market share dips, although they still have an increase in overall unit sales (in other words: the pie gets bigger faster than their sales do). That said, a new iPod is even more betterer than all previous versions, making everyone who recently bought a prior generation a wee bit annoyed, but gosh that Steve Jobs is so charming they just don’t care. After all, that’s technology! — No, pretty much completely wrong (though there is a rumor for a new Zune at CES 09)
  • At least two major camera vendors introduce integrated wifi cameras, but no more than one uses an open service, the rest have some proprietary, closed, annoying-to-use system. Ideally one of them buys Eye-fi. — Correctamundo (but still waiting on the Eye-Fi acquisition)
  • Digital picture frames continue to grow in market share, but still don’t “tip” into the mainstream. — Anecdotally I’d say I’m right (duh), but I can’t find any stats either way.  That said, there were enough units sold to get some malignant pusbag to put a virus on one. I’ll leave this one unresolved for now.
  • More companies introduce e-book readers despite general malaise in the category. Kindle II is launched with mild improvements. — Wrong, wrong, wrong.  Even if I don’t “get it”, apparently Oprah does, so it looks like the category’s doing fine.  Probably one of the biggest surprises to me this year…

Enterprise Services

  • I have no clue, I don’t follow the space. Hello, this is a consumer tech blog!  — This statement certainly wasn’t enough to prevent clueless PR flacks from pitching me on their enterprise technology products.

Computers

  • Apple’s new laptops will include an ultramobile, a tablet, and a “desktop replacement” OR a “gaming model” (they may combine the first two). Enhancements will include a card reader, 3G access as a built-in option, and new gestures. Market share continues to climb.  — Other than the market share comment, I’m quite wrong again.  I should’ve just said “one solid piece of aluminium” and left it at that.
  • Microsoft continues to spin about how amazing Vista is. Michael Gartenberg’s observations are probably the most poignant as to why it isn’t. — Right, and with a huge budget to boot.
  • Asus or Dell acquires or merges with one of HP, Acer, Toshiba, or other “meh” PC maker.  — Wrong.
  • Sony continues to make subpar Vaio laptops. And for the last time (I think) in 2007: don’t buy the Sony Vaio VGN-SZ4xx series laptops, they are just plain terrible. I’ve now had the chance to voice my discontent directly to the Vaio PR team (at Ruder Finn) who have yet to write me back on the topic. — Completely right.  If I’ve had the opportunity to cost them some sales, I feel like I’ve accomplished something.  And a note to that PR team – how about dropping me a note one day?  Since you pitch yourselfes as being good at this “social media” thing, maybe you’d like to show your prowess?
  • Nobody makes my awesome dual-screen laptop concept, thus leaving me the opportunity to make zillions one day.  — I have the pleasure to say that I’m wrong, and Lenovo owes me zillions.

Social Networking

  • Facebook continues to get backlash from the media and tech community, meanwhile its user base continues to skyrocket. Further, they hire another 1000 people, yet only make modest improvements to the site itself. I’d add a 33% chance that they “pull a Netscape” and go after the desktop or the browser or some other place they really don’t belong.  — Re backlash: right; Re growth: right; Re staffing: close; Re improvements: right; Re target a weird space: right (Beacon).  Cmon, I get extra props here!
  • Randomly pick some names from the huge list of other social networking sites and some of them merge. — AOL bought Bebo, but that was about it for the year.
  • Adults who didn’t grow up with social networking services experience burnout of being bitten by zombies after a few months, and many stop checking in four times per day. Those who went to school during the Facebook era continue to complain about all the old fogies (like me) polluting their sacred resting ground. They also continue to put radically inappropriate pictures of themselves online, blissfully unaware of the interviewing process. — Right on all counts.

Mobile Tech

  • A few Android-powered phones ship, but not as many as the tech community would like to see. Again showing why the Razr can utterly dominate the market despite a closed architecture and terrible user interface. — I guess I should’ve said “One or more” instead of “a few”, but I’m gonna go with a yes here.
  • Apple launches the iPhone 3G, the iPhone nano, and the iPhonePro. Ok, I’m not 100% sure on the third, but I am betting on the first two. Also, one of these new phones comes unlocked OR on a carrier other than AT&T.  — Mixed, so for the count I’ll have to say wrong.
  • Some major lawsuit occurs between a carrier and either a cable company or a broadcaster, all about mobile video rights. All parties involved appear as nothing but greedy to outsiders. — Wrong (it’s still brewing, trust me)
  • Something new comes out in the phone space that’s more astounding than the iPhone. It’s possibly: uber-small, has a radically better battery life, does something funky like synchs with the Wii, or works with all US carriers.  — Wrong, instead a bunch of lousy, boring, poorly built touchphone replicas come to market.  Fail.

Gaming

  • With lots of stealth, a new console comes to market. It might only be a moderate shift from a prior model, or possibly be a whole new entrant. — Nope.
  • Rock Band 2 and 3, and Guitar Heros 4, 5, 6, and “Eddie Van Halen” editions come out, however nobody licenses the Harmonix engine to make “Jazz Trio”. — N/A, was just sarcasm.
  • Someone comes up with a really impressively new concept for the Wii. Good odds, however, that they wrap it inside a crappy game. — Don’t know, didn’t pay enough attention to the Wii.  Anyone?
  • More really amazing HD gaming occurs, continuing to drive HD adoption faster than the meager channels the cable companies try to placate us with, despite the fact that they raise prices again. Did I already say that? — Yup.

Web Services/Misc

  • A wide swath of “Web 2.0″ companies will go dark, primarily out of an inability to either figure out a business model for their product, or an inability to successfully market their service outside of the Bay Area.  They will quickly be forgotten and replaced by new ones with even goofier sounding names like Froobooloo.com. — I guess this has to be a “not quite yet”, but it’s-a-coming…
  • No major Wimax deployments occur.  — Right-o.
  • The digital transition date looms, starts creating a lot of media hype a la Year2000 mania. — Very right.
  • RFID continues to be a fun topic for the media, but all that happens is Walmart continues to make small vendors spend loads of money for the privelege of selling there. — Goes under the not enough information to make a call category.
  • Bloggers fret about not being recognized as “press”, yet continue to spend too much time/energy gossiping about other bloggers, an activity the general public remains disinterested in and doesn’t give extra respect/credibility for.  This circular logic is baffling, I know. — Right.
  • We lose even more rights to big media, because few Americans are willing to take even the tiniest steps to do anything about it.  PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG (start here)! — Right.
  • I still don’t Twitter.  — 1005 updates at the time of writing. Complete and utter fail. I’m so lame.

The verdict… 16 correct predictions, 13 incorrect ones, and 3 with insufficient information.  Not too shabby, but I’ll try to do a little better next year!