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Is there a market for Ultra High Definition TV?

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Quick history lesson. From the birth of TV through the invention of cable TV and the VCR, picture quality was effectively the same. Along came DVD, which doubled the screen resolution to 480p, ooh ahh. Then along came HDTV with 720p. Then 1080i, and now we’ve “settled” on 1080p. Only we haven’t – the next two resolutions are already picked, they’ve been called 4K and 8K by the industry for a while, and just got fancy labels with “Ultra High Definition Television.” And much as I’ve always considered Blu-Ray a loser format, I believe the same fate is in store for UHDTV.

First, the picture quality is virtually imperceptible. I’m pausing for a second as rabid video engineers attempt to tar and feather me, but on a 50″ screen from about 10′ away, 4K looks roughly the same as 1080p – which, while I’m at it, looks roughly the same as 720p.  Unless you really really really know what you are doing, and really set up your room properly, and really have the right size TV for the distance from your couch, and really watch the right source material, and really really really – you get it.  But for most regular humans watching most regular TV (which, I might add, isn’t even being broadcast in 1080p – what? yes, it’s true – if you are watching TV, you are not watching 1080p. deal with it), your existing HDTV setup probably looks beautiful enough as it is.

Second, even if you can tell the difference, it’s not impressive enough. I distinctly recall watching my first DVD, and I distinctly recall my upgrade to HDTV.  Each were monumental shifts in resolution and display quality. It’s reminiscent of upgrading to a retina display iPhone/iPad. But then what? If the next shift upwards doesn’t bring the same “ooh, ahh” moment, it’s a resounding “meh” – and “meh” doesn’t sell new TVs.

Third, it’ll be perfectly timed for “higher quality format fatigue” to set in.  As I’ve described above, consumers already finished going to stores to upgrade to get to the promise of “FullHD” – which, again, generally isn’t even being broadcast in FullHD. Going from FullHD to UltraHD is just going to make folks wary, if not pissed.  Nobody likes to think their recent investment as worthless, regardless of the plummeting prices of flatscreens.  It’s too little, too soon.

Fourth, there won’t be enough content. Whenever 4K sets are available, and I predict it’s coming within 18 months, odds are really low that a corresponding broadcast source or streaming medium will offer 4K videos. Unless a huge back catalog of content is released at the same time, most of which doesn’t even exist at 4K resolution I might add, consumers won’t see a compelling reason to upgrade.

Fifth, streaming won’t support 4K into homes anytime soon, and physical media is dead, which means there’s not going to be 4K content anytime soon. Per above, no content equals dead format, and since we don’t really have the infrastructure in North America to support a wealth of content…

Sixth, and it’s a minor point, but how can you have two different standards with the same name?!?!? Consumers hate that stuff. Quit it!

Much as the MP3 killed high definition audio long before its time, I believe streaming video and a lack of perceptible difference will kill ultra high definition video long before its time.  My advice to the industry: slow down, you move too fast. I know you are losing money on just about every TV you sell, and I know that’s not changing anytime soon, but 4K in 2012/2013 is not your answer.

My advice to the industry at large:

  • Don’t launch without a huge content library.
  • Don’t launch without multi-brand support.
  • Don’t launch without an all-streaming solution.
  • Don’t launch too expensively.
  • Don’t launch with a negative campaign against existing HDTV installations.
  • Don’t launch til you have it all perfect.  You aren’t there yet.  Stay quiet until you do.

ps – sorry for the gross picture.  🙂

pps – to videophiles who want to nitpick with some detail I’m sure I got wrong – please do so constructively!

Scoring my 2009 Tech Predictions

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I hit about 50% on my 2008 predictions, time to size up my prognosticatory (not a word) skills again. And here’s the original post (though I’ve included all the predictive content again below).

Home Gadgets/Tech

  • Microsoft opens the Xbox 360 platform even further, enables an “app store for the home” that spans well beyond games. WRONG – while there are many new features and some openness, it’s not even close to my prediction.
  • Blu-ray sputters along, but not enough conclusive evidence (in other words, revenue) happens to either shut down the format altogether, nor to get consumers to adopt it. RIGHT – stats on Blu-ray for 2009 were unimpressive.  It’ll be physical media versus the newspaper industry to see who kicks the bucket first.
  • As the FCC-mandated digital TV transition approaches, the hype machine reaches full effect and very convincing pieces try to show the plight of the very few.  After it’s all over, virtually nobody complains loudly. RIGHT – oh yeah, there was a transition last year, wasn’t there…
  • One or both of Home Automation and/or Interactive TV returns to prominence in techie chatter, but neither make any additional inroads into actual homes. WRONG – the hype machine stays in neutral
  • Pasting from 2008 predictions: Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. WRONG – Droid came instead…  but I’m putting this back on the list (to-come) for ’10.

Computers

  • Netbook sales grow well, but not astoundingly so.  The majority of users ignore them due to a lack of actual value present in the device (especially those of us with big grubby fingers). UNKNOWN – I left this one too vague and could go either way on it.
  • One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop with great Vista drivers that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice. WRONG – MacBook sales just continued to climb relative to PC Laptops instead
  • A Linux-based computer powered with a really great GUI and OpenOffice comes to market from an established brand. WRONG – although Android netbooks are supposedly coming next year, but that’s definitely not a 2009 thing.
  • USB 3.0 launches, causing massive annoyance and confusion to consumers.  I still can’t believe they didn’t give it a different name than USB.  Terrible decision. WRONG – the format launched, but nobody really cared.

Mobile Gadgets/Tech

  • More lousy wannabe touchscreen phones ship, none compete 1:1 with the iPhone. RIGHT – so very very right.
  • A really good GPS+phone combo device comes to market. WRONG – I shouldn’t have said “really good”
  • The BlackBerry Storm is rapidly replaced with some better device from RIM. RIGHT – but then again they did name it Storm again…
  • Mobile commerce replaces location-based services as the hot mobile trend. MIXED – they’re both pretty hot, but FourSquare really did charm the pants off the tech bloggers.
  • US cellular companies wage a price war, making several features (ahem, texting?) cheaper, along with better priced packages across the board. WRONG – and oligopoly enjoys another year.
  • No truly impressive Android phones ship from anyone. WRONG – the Droid and Droid Eris are both impressive (though still no iPhones – and I *have* an Eris)

Events/News

  • CES 2009 is notably smaller than 2008, yet the important stuff that goes on at the show is business as usual.  It’s all the fringe people who are absent, and the same who complain about the lack of cool new stuff at CES.  Which won’t be a surprise due to the rarity of cool new stuff actually shown at CES! RIGHT – and ditto again in 2010
  • Macworld is just the first of many shows to also announce downsizing, including Streaming Media, Web 2.0 Expo, etc.  2009 will be a bad year for the tech conference industry. RIGHT – Macworld? Streaming Media West was a ghost town. Web what.point.oh?
  • Apple introduces only evolutionary products, nothing astounding or revolutionary. Let’s face it, sooner or later the well runs dry, and this is the time for the company to expand its market.  Yes, we’ll get a new phone, laptop, and ipod, but I doubt we see anything as profound as in the past 2 years. RIGHT – although I do very much like my 27″ iMac, it’s not revolutionary.  Maybe in 2010, we’ll see.
  • A largish black monolith with dimensions 1 by 4 by 9 is discovered. RIGHT – but I can’t tell you about it.

Web/Online

  • Facebook reaches a user base of 200 hundred million users.  It’s growth ratethen  slows and the alarm bells sound loudly throughout the media, regardless of actual success metrics. MIXED – bit off more than I should’ve with that one.
  • Twitter finally announces its business model, which underwhelms everyone.  Not that it won’t be a good model, just that it will have been (wow is that passive voice or what?) built up with far more hype than can possibly be delivered. MIXED – they didn’t really announce anything specific, but are making revenue, and the hype train is unquestionably fully loaded.
  • Many “web 2.0″ companies face major shrinkage as the funds simply don’t come back to them again.  Companies with huge traffic bases or, more importantly, solid revenue models will be fine, but the rest start fading away (and they take their weird names with them) RIGHT – look around, the air’s a lot thinner these days
  • Several “prominent” blogs/bloggers retire due to a lack of revenue, exhaustion, lack of interesting new content to write about, etc. WRONG – was really expecting this to happen, but I didn’t see much of it.
  • Web 3.0 does not arrive. RIGHT – duh.

Total count:

  • RIGHT: 10 (9 without the monolith)
  • WRONG: 10
  • OTHER: 4

Not too shabby, not too overwhelming.  I’m still writing the 2010 edition, so hopefully nothing monumental will happen before I can publish it!

How Blu-ray Can Avoid Failure

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Just read David Carnoy’s piece on “9 reasons why Blu-ray will succeed“.  I like David, but I couldn’t disagree more with his post (though not the individual points, as you’ll see below).  And since (as of yesterday) it’s feeling like we’re in a free country where I can say what I want (again, at last), I’ll run through my counterpoints really quick:

  1. “Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon.” – I agree, but this doesn’t point to Blu-ray success.  Despite the rise of downloadable/streaming content, people are still buying disks.  But for how much longer?  I think even people who’ve never heard of things like Hulu are aware that the inevitable next step of content acquisition is file/stream based, not physical media (though they’d probably not use those words).
  2. “Having one clear standard is a big advantage.” – agreed, it’s called “DVD”.
  3. “Blu-ray isn’t going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon.” – agreed.  In his post, David references a piece that compares early complaints of DVD to current complaints of Blu-ray.  In this example, the more apropo statement is “just like CDs, DVD isn’t going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon.”  Er, wait, hang on – I’ll go fire up my SACD player!
  4. “Prices for large-screen HDTVs will continue to drop.” – agreed.  But with an estimated third of the country already on HDTV sets, their amazing-looking upscaling DVD players aren’t about to get replaced.  Key here – there is not a dissatisfaction problem, in the slightest, with current content.  There was with VCRs.
  5. “Prices for Blu-ray players will continue to drop.” – now we’re talking!  Buuuuut, I still don’t see people rushing out to get them, even at $99 or $49.  There’s no incentive to do so, and (as I’ve said before) consumers do not purchase new technology just because it’s cheap.  In fact cheap Blu-ray players might cause as much negative enthusiasm as positive (“this thing was, like, $399, like, only last year!  they must be, like, doing badly, like, or something. dude. like.”)
  6. “Prices for Blu-ray discs will drop to near DVD price levels.” – see previous point.  Plus, people just aren’t into replacing their existing DVD collection.  Check the Amazon Blu-ray home page. I see deals for… wait for it… The Scorpion King 2.   End of Days.  Miami Vice (ooh, director’s cut!).  I think I’ve seen these titles in the $6.99 bin at Walgreens.
  7. “Sony will sell lots of PlayStation 3 game consoles.” – will they?  Not from what I’m reading…
  8. “Sony can’t afford to have Blu-ray fail.” – they also can’t afford to not be the #1 plasma vendor.  Oops, too late.  They also can’t afford to make terrible terrible laptops that have industry folk lamenting about constantly (yeah, I went there, but you kinda knew I would).  Oops, too late.  They also couldn’t afford to have UMDs fail.  Or memory sticks.  Or mini-discs.  Oops too late.
  9. “Sony and its partners will figure out a way to have Blu-ray resonate with the public.” – and, no.  Sony’s being run by a team stuck in the 1990s, still hoping somehow Morita’s coming back.  He’s not.  And his replacements are just utterly out of vision.  They let Samsung, LG, and a suite of other no-names take over the consumer electronics industry, and the best branding they can come up with today to sell me a plasma is based on deception.

So what’s to be done for dear old Blu-ray?  Is it as dead as I prognosticate, or no?  I think the best step is to change our expectations and mindsets on it.

People are buying buckets full of Blu-ray disks.  They are available for rent by every major company, and all the new top films are coming out on Blu-ray.  So if the definition of “success” changed from “Blu-ray will replace DVDs as the dominant format of physical media and we will have Blu-ray players in every home” to something more like “Blu-ray will be the last form of physical media consumers adopt, it will get adopted by enough of the population to show profitability, but will always be perceived as an also-ran” then we’re doing okay.

More than 80% of US homes have DVD players.  Put the target for Blu-ray around a third of that, tops, and then we’ve got a win on our hands.

Samsung Adds Final Nail to Blu-ray's Coffin

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One of the greatest challenges of building consumer electronics devices is dealing with that awkward timeframe between announcing new/next-generation products and ending the lifecycle of current ones.  Sales tend to plummet and huge price incentives are thrown at customers to try to get the units off the shelves instead of in the dumpster.  Naturally as a CE manufacturer you typically want to keep that window as short as possible, as it is otherwise harmful to pretty much in the foodchain, often including consumers.

I was, therefore, quite surprised to read an interview with a Samsung exec predicting the demise of the Blu-ray format within the next 5 years.  I can’t see any possibly upside to this statement for Samsung, content makers, other device manufacturers, etc.  As I’ve blogged about before, I’m still far from being sold on Blu-ray as a “winner”, but I guess that needs more context.

The NPD Group puts home DVD players at having penetrated 85% of US homes.  That’s a win, unquestionably.  It seems highly unlikely that Blu-ray will ever get to the same level.  I’ve yet to hear/see any real positive word-of-mouth happening for the format, and the reasons seem similar as when I blogged about it last time.  Here are my biggest reasons against mass-adoption of Blu-ray as a format:

  • Without extremely big, high-quality screens, it’s challenging to see the “ooh, ahh” factor of 1080p over even an upconverted standard DVD.
  • Upconverting DVD players are pretty much the standard already, and are available at extremely reasonable price points.
  • Consumers are still enjoying their 720p (the current HD standard) content, so seeing something “marginally better” doesn’t make too much of an impact.
  • Small content selection at a high price point.

Finally, I also believe we’re going to see an “iPodification” of video.  In the 90s we were well on our way to replacing the CD as format, with SACD and DVD-Audio as possible follow-ups.  Both offered vast improvements in sound quality that were pretty apparent with a decent stereo.  Today, however, the average person is listening to music at worse-than-CD quality, on their iPods/iPhones, home stereos, Sonoses (or is that Sonii?), etc.

It seems fairly likely that the same pattern will occur with video, based on the combination of iPods, mobile video (cell phones), YouTube, Hulu, Amazon’s new service, and anything else that brings low-to-medium quality video to our eyes on a recurring basis.  Don’t get me wrong, the big flat panels will still make it to the common living rooms, with glorious 5, 7, 11, or 2834-channel surround sound systems.  But the time invested in these playback experiences is already in a questionable state (some say its on the decline, though there’s little real-world evidence as of yet), and all things being equal, seems unlikely to grow.

My hunch is the DVD as we know it today will be around for a long, long time, and the replacement format for it won’t involve physical media.  TVs with built-in streaming capabilities are coming to store shelves (I’d probably avoid the first generation if I were you), and we’ll see a new generation of set-tops and gaming consoles with higher quality video when the time is right.  Blu-ray definitely beat HD-DVD, but I still don’t believe it’ll ever be a dominant format for the masses.