If this works, you should be seeing a picture of a jerk parking.
Monthly Archives: January 2010
How-To: Survive CES 2010
I don’t think I’ve ever cut this quite so close to the wire before. But, with 24 hours to go, here’s the updated version of my ever-evolving “how to survive CES” post. Per last year’s CES tips post, I’ll be including anything that was relevant then, again.
- Wear comfortable shoes. Still the #1 most useful tip in my opinion. Even if you are the guy wearing the $6500 suit (come on!), put on your Adidas or Reeboks or whatever to go with it. Few will notice, and if anyone questions, saying “yeah, I decided it’s smarter to be comfortable than look pretty at CES” probably trumps any kind of rebuttal. It’s a BIG show and you’ll end up walking a few miles every day. Freebie bonus tip: while walking the show floor, try to walk on the booths as they tend to have better padding than the walkways between booths.
- Bring Purel and some chapstick. Wash before eating, because CES is also International Germfest. Just imagine all the happy little viruses (virii?) meeting so many new friends. Also, Vegas is in the middle of a desert, so having chapstick (and some moisturizer) helps.
- Skip the swag. Do you really want a Panasonic pen, or a Sony plastic bag, or a brochure from TiVo? Really? My wife has actually forbidden me from bringing home anything, period. Also, for those of you into conservation (which should be, you know, everyone), no better way to send a message than to leave LG with an extra truckfull of mints.
- Don’t harass booth workers. They all have jobs to do (booth babes included), and just because they are there doesn’t mean they are the right person for you to give your 30 minute lecture as to why you are unhappy with your DVD player. It’s also not fair to beat up on some marketing guy who doesn’t have a uber-techie-detail question (although if they don’t help find you the right person, well, then they’ve asked for it). Also, if you see 12 people from CNN trying to set up a video shoot, you should probably realize you’ve become a lower priority, try to grab a business card and head out rather than wait for that awkward moment…
- Don’t hide your badge. First, it’s just a nuisance. Second, people like me train all our booth staffers to ask people like you who you are. Third, good booth staffers will treat you the same as anyone else, although they might just filter you to the right person. If you are an important member of the press or a senior guy at a huge company, well odds are you shouldn’t be talking to the 23 year old QA person who was roped into coming to CES to help with some booth shifts. Flip side comment here: if you are working the booth and someone comes up that is a competitor, don’t be rude or glib. Treat them the same as any random booth visitor. It’s just stupid to tell them they can’t see something or take pictures, when any random schmo can do exactly that.
- Hydrate yourself and your hotel room: If you carry only one thing (and you should – more later), it should be a bottle of water. Also, since your hotel room will be quite dry, leave the bathtub 1/4 full of water overnight, you’ll feel better in the morning.
- Plan ahead. If you have not registered for the show, you aren’t getting in (this happened to a commentor here back in 2007). If you forget your badge, you are paying a fee to get it back. Pick up your badge at one of the non-primary locations (hint: most hotels!).
- Don’t Travel too much. Traveling between any two destinations could easily take an hour, even as early as 8am. If you try to leave the show, go to a hotel, then come back, your day is done.
- Need Connections? Figure it out ahead of time. Every year it gets better, but every year it’s still bad. Internet connectivity is unreliable anywhere in the convention center. Even the press room’s Internet service went down last year. If you MUST be online for a call/meeting/briefing/WoW session, have a place in mind to do it. Get a MiFi!
- Use SMS to coordinate. Texting is the easiest and most reliable means of communicating across the extremely loud and busy show.
- Bring business cards. I would say roughly 97% of the people that I’ve met at CES over the years who don’t have cards regret not having them. Maybe it seems cool now not to carry them. Maybe you think they are so 1990s. The truth is, there’s almost no reason not to carry cards, and even looking at it from a potential loss vs potential gain perspective says: carry the darn things! And Moo cards don’t count, people. Updated for 20092010: Still true.
Pack lightly. My recommendation is to walk the floor with either nothing or a near-empty backpack. Forget shoulder straps, you’ll be aching by the end of the day. Bring nothing you do not need during the day. Also, try to dump your bag prior to dinner, so you can spend the night on the town without having to remember anything later. What happens in Vegas…- Check the live coverage. Engadget puts up a post every 3.8 seconds during CES (this is not a fact, I am just guessing). Make sure you tap into theirs (or Gizmodos or your own favorite gadget blog) during the course of the show. They might find something you hadn’t heard of before, and you might miss it otherwise.
- Get a chair massage. They’re all over the place, and worth it.
Yup, we’ve lost a tip this year. But CES lost the Sands exhibit hall, so that probably makes up for it. See ya in Vegas!
Technology Predictions for 2010
Every year I predict, every year I get at least one thing right. And many wrong. But that’s the fun part, right? This year instead of categorizing based on the technology area, I’m going to organize based on my own scale of how crazy the prediction itself is…
The No-Brainers
Stuff that is almost definitely going to happen. Except the ones that don’t…
- Twitter growth levels off, though Twitter usage increases. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see the churn rate equal the signup rate as I believe Twitter still has a massive problem with getting new users enchanted with the service.
- A new version of the iPhone comes out that is incrementally better than the 3GS.
- Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. (repeat from ’09).
- CES 2010 exceeds expectations, either in the form of interesting new gadgets or industry-wide product/technology launches.
- BlackBerry overhauls their “app store” to make it more iPhone-y.
- Mac OSX market share continues to rise.
- Superslim TVs (like the Samsung LEDs – drool!) become the hot category for displays. Many of them are “connected” to various Internet services.
Sounds Feasible
Predictions that are a little more “out there” but don’t require any major convincing.
- Zynga files to go public, and the entire “social gaming” category gets even more unbelievably outrageous.
- Yahoo! begins some kind of realistic turnaround. They have far too much foot traffic and too many good properties to continue to fail for so long.
- Hint to Yahoo! – reinvest in your Flickrs, Deliciouses, and other “interesting” stuff that you are good at, and stay OFF the television and other places that you are not good at.
- One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice. (repeat from ’09).
- “Real-time Web” loses steam as a meme. While I’m personally very bullish on the impacts and possibilities, it’s far too niche and far too unimportant to “regular folks” to care about.
- Probably same for “Cloud Computing”, but since everyone’s just confusing it with “The Internet” it might have more staying power.
- Apple releases stats on iPhone/iPod/iTunes/app store that are just mind-blowing.
- 4G/LTE networks spread faster than expected, become viably competitive to the mainstream consumer within the year.
- The term “Social Media” finally begins to fade across all industries other than Social Media Mavens, Gurus, and Wizards. The latter reach level 7 and learn how to cast User-Generated Fireball and Community Driven Magic Missile.
- All non-Apple tablets are craptastic. Ditto for touchscreen phones.
- 3DTV gets embedded into lots and lots of TVs, much to the chagrin of consumers who don’t feel the need to look like that goofy guy in Back to the Future, even in the comfort of their own living rooms.
- Note that in my opinion the only thing that really makes 3D “work” in the home is sports. And even that’s a long shot.
Whatcha Talkin Bout Willis?
Stuff that’s probably not going to happen, but ya never know…
- Facebook reveals huge revenue numbers, files to go public.
- Twitter gets acquired by Microsoft. Yeah, I’m being specific here, but it’s the only logical acquisition, and Microsoft’s got deep enough pockets and have failed at virtually all things Internet. In a nutshell, Ballmer wants to bring sexy back.
- The Apple Tablet ships in 2010. Sure all the “in the know” folks are convinced this must happen, but most of them said that about 2009 (and/or that Apple would ship a netbook).
- Some kind of flexible-display type of device is announced (might even ship). If I had to hunch (and I of course do), it’d either come from Apple or as a new Kindle.
- Tru2Way is announced as the new failure of openness from the FCC.
- All versions of Rock Band and Guitar Hero in 2010 fail to exceed sales stats of 2009 or 2008.
- Hey guys – remember how that Who Wants to be a Millionaire show was super popular? Then they started running it 4+ nights a week? Then it moved to daytime? There’s something called a “saturated market”. Stop with all the specialty versions and get back to improving the base game, which you can sell add-ons to.
- Cisco buys a few more gadget makers and technology providers in their attempt to own the Digital Home. In each case they continue to exhibit poor timing and overpay for slightly outdated platforms.
Can I get a hit of that stuff?
Things that are just plain unrealistic, but I’m saying them anyway. This way if they happen I can say I was the first to say them.
- Apple does not ship a tablet. Yes, I contradict the above point, since I do think “where there’s smoke, there’s fire” holds up in general. However, it is Apple, and this is a terrible device category, and Steve Jobs hates doing things crappily. BTW, you really should read this piece if you are even remotely following the Apple Tablet news – it’s extremely well written and insightful.
- Facebook buys Twitter. It’s not really all that out there as a concept (although I’d wager the personalities behind both companies are big forces against it). Both companies need to continue rapid growth. Both companies need to create lots of revenue. Both companies want to be “empires”. There are many overlapping aspects, but the combined entity could realistically “own” the social network.
- A new game console launches. I put this in the long-shot category because nobody is really incented to create a new console right now. The Xbox 360 is finally hitting it’s strides; the PS3 has way too much cost to recoup, and the Wii is enjoying it’s ride. If I had to guess, I’d wager on a 4th party entrant (Samsung?). If one of the big three, I’d pick the next console as a “Wii HD”.
- A “Lifestreamer” device comes to market. It’s not quite a phone, but it’s always on, always recording, and has amazing synch with some Web service. Never takes pictures, only video. Able to “Tag” moments. Has real-time streaming capabilities.
- Scoble buys units for himself and entire family. 😉
- Microsoft (or possibly Yahoo!) goes on a major Internet services acquisition spree, picking up companies like Zoho, bit.ly, Adobe (yes, Adobe), Pandora, Evernote, UserVoice, and more.
- The TwitterPeek is the #1 hottest selling device of the year!
That’s all folks, see you in 361 days for the results.
Note that I anticipate much snarkiness in the comments. Have at it.
Scoring my 2009 Tech Predictions
I hit about 50% on my 2008 predictions, time to size up my prognosticatory (not a word) skills again. And here’s the original post (though I’ve included all the predictive content again below).
Home Gadgets/Tech
- Microsoft opens the Xbox 360 platform even further, enables an “app store for the home” that spans well beyond games. WRONG – while there are many new features and some openness, it’s not even close to my prediction.
- Blu-ray sputters along, but not enough conclusive evidence (in other words, revenue) happens to either shut down the format altogether, nor to get consumers to adopt it. RIGHT – stats on Blu-ray for 2009 were unimpressive. It’ll be physical media versus the newspaper industry to see who kicks the bucket first.
- As the FCC-mandated digital TV transition approaches, the hype machine reaches full effect and very convincing pieces try to show the plight of the very few. After it’s all over, virtually nobody complains loudly. RIGHT – oh yeah, there was a transition last year, wasn’t there…
- One or both of Home Automation and/or Interactive TV returns to prominence in techie chatter, but neither make any additional inroads into actual homes. WRONG – the hype machine stays in neutral
- Pasting from 2008 predictions: Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. WRONG – Droid came instead… but I’m putting this back on the list (to-come) for ’10.
Computers
- Netbook sales grow well, but not astoundingly so. The majority of users ignore them due to a lack of actual value present in the device (especially those of us with big grubby fingers). UNKNOWN – I left this one too vague and could go either way on it.
- One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop with great Vista drivers that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice. WRONG – MacBook sales just continued to climb relative to PC Laptops instead
- A Linux-based computer powered with a really great GUI and OpenOffice comes to market from an established brand. WRONG – although Android netbooks are supposedly coming next year, but that’s definitely not a 2009 thing.
- USB 3.0 launches, causing massive annoyance and confusion to consumers. I still can’t believe they didn’t give it a different name than USB. Terrible decision. WRONG – the format launched, but nobody really cared.
Mobile Gadgets/Tech
- More lousy wannabe touchscreen phones ship, none compete 1:1 with the iPhone. RIGHT – so very very right.
- A really good GPS+phone combo device comes to market. WRONG – I shouldn’t have said “really good”
- The BlackBerry Storm is rapidly replaced with some better device from RIM. RIGHT – but then again they did name it Storm again…
- Mobile commerce replaces location-based services as the hot mobile trend. MIXED – they’re both pretty hot, but FourSquare really did charm the pants off the tech bloggers.
- US cellular companies wage a price war, making several features (ahem, texting?) cheaper, along with better priced packages across the board. WRONG – and oligopoly enjoys another year.
- No truly impressive Android phones ship from anyone. WRONG – the Droid and Droid Eris are both impressive (though still no iPhones – and I *have* an Eris)
Events/News
- CES 2009 is notably smaller than 2008, yet the important stuff that goes on at the show is business as usual. It’s all the fringe people who are absent, and the same who complain about the lack of cool new stuff at CES. Which won’t be a surprise due to the rarity of cool new stuff actually shown at CES! RIGHT – and ditto again in 2010
- Macworld is just the first of many shows to also announce downsizing, including Streaming Media, Web 2.0 Expo, etc. 2009 will be a bad year for the tech conference industry. RIGHT – Macworld? Streaming Media West was a ghost town. Web what.point.oh?
- Apple introduces only evolutionary products, nothing astounding or revolutionary. Let’s face it, sooner or later the well runs dry, and this is the time for the company to expand its market. Yes, we’ll get a new phone, laptop, and ipod, but I doubt we see anything as profound as in the past 2 years. RIGHT – although I do very much like my 27″ iMac, it’s not revolutionary. Maybe in 2010, we’ll see.
- A largish black monolith with dimensions 1 by 4 by 9 is discovered. RIGHT – but I can’t tell you about it.
Web/Online
- Facebook reaches a user base of 200 hundred million users. It’s growth ratethen slows and the alarm bells sound loudly throughout the media, regardless of actual success metrics. MIXED – bit off more than I should’ve with that one.
- Twitter finally announces its business model, which underwhelms everyone. Not that it won’t be a good model, just that it will have been (wow is that passive voice or what?) built up with far more hype than can possibly be delivered. MIXED – they didn’t really announce anything specific, but are making revenue, and the hype train is unquestionably fully loaded.
- Many “web 2.0″ companies face major shrinkage as the funds simply don’t come back to them again. Companies with huge traffic bases or, more importantly, solid revenue models will be fine, but the rest start fading away (and they take their weird names with them) RIGHT – look around, the air’s a lot thinner these days
- Several “prominent” blogs/bloggers retire due to a lack of revenue, exhaustion, lack of interesting new content to write about, etc. WRONG – was really expecting this to happen, but I didn’t see much of it.
- Web 3.0 does not arrive. RIGHT – duh.
Total count:
- RIGHT: 10 (9 without the monolith)
- WRONG: 10
- OTHER: 4
Not too shabby, not too overwhelming. I’m still writing the 2010 edition, so hopefully nothing monumental will happen before I can publish it!