LIVEdigitally

Category Archives: General

Signs You Live in the Silicon Valley Echochamber

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Your home page is one of: TechMeme, Yhacker news, Friendfeed.

You debate the merits of various URL shorteners.

Hearing that teenagers think Twitter is stupid, yet they send ~500 texts per day is somehow disconcerting to you, and challenges some core beliefs you have about the world.

You (a) have a tag cloud on your blog and (b) it actively contains any one of: Louis Gray, Scobleizer, Cloud Computing.  (note: it was pointed out to me that this seems like a possible slam on Louis/Robert – it’s not. Having their names in your tag cloud means you write about them a lot as a topic. So unless you are them, it’s echochambery)

You think you are “good at Twitter”.

You believe that writing a blog on a topic for more than 6 months makes someone an expert at that topic.

You think the iPhone sucks and the gPhone rocks in comparison (note: I may not personally own an iPhone, and I may make jokes about it, but even I know it doesn’t suck).

You tell friends or family when someone more popular than you retweets something you wrote (whether they care or not).

You can easily define the difference between the types of posts written on ReadWriteWeb, VentureBeat, TechCrunch, and Mashable.

You are surprised to learn that AOL has over 10 million paying subscribers.

You lament over the failure of the “Semantic” Web.

When you hear the following first names, in your mind they have direct associations with specific individuals: Mike, Jeff, Pete, Erick, Marshall, Rafe, Justine, Brian, Fred, Ron, Louis, Robert, Chad, Veronica, Jeremiah, and Gabe. You might also guess at a Paul, a Dave, a Sarah, and a Chris.  And, of course, a Jeremy.

You believe yourself to be “very” aware of news as it happens. But this is specifically because of Twitter trending topics.

You still say “(subject) two point oh”.

You see absolutely no reason whatsoever not to put all of your personal information into sites like Facebook, Google Health, Mint, Dopplr, or LinkedIn.

You can name one (or multiple) competitors to Twitter.

You (a) have more than 500 twitter followers and (b) know exactly how many you have at this moment (+/- 10 people).

You use terms like “Tweeple”, “Social Graph”, “Real-Time Web”, “Microsyntax”.

You look around very carefully before dissing “industry heavyweights” out loud (though rarely ponder why they are so powerful).

You think Spymaster, KDice, and Tap Tap Revenge are “popular video games”.

You know precisely what Google Wave is.

You know how much FriendFeed and iLike were acquired for, but cannot (without research) answer questions like “how much does the war in Iraq cost US taxpayers?” or “in a nutshell, what is the conflict in Darfur actually about?”.

What we really want out of new operating systems

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With Snow Leopard set to debut tomorrow (except for all my industry friends who already have it that is), I’ve been pondering a lot as to the true value of new/improved operating systems.  In a nutshell for SL it seems to be $30 to improve the overall performance of existing Leopard installations.  That makes sense as a value proposition (for only $30, my $1000 laptop will perform better than it does today? count me in). Windows 7 is coming soon, which seems primed as a substantial improvement over Vista (insert cheap shot here), and again I ponder as to the alignment between market needs and product offerings.

My basic assertion is we’ve reached a plateau in the cycle of improving computer/OS/Internet experiences, and the investment should be more oriented on basic performance and reliability, as well as dramatic improvements in simple ease of use. As a simple assertion, it’s my belief that the average computer user (PC and Mac) is still challenged to perform tasks as “basic” as locating downloaded files, upgrading software, and virtually any kind of networking function.  And for those of you reading and slowly sticking your nose in the air in a mocking fashion, your snobbery does not benefit those who use computers day-in and day-out, and in the long run is costing you time and money.

Here’s my target list of what fixes would help the bulk of computer users today and tomorrow:

  • Expert Mode.
    The steepest challenge in most systems is helping novices while empowering expert users.  When it comes to as big a system as the core OS to a computer, the challenge is close to insurmountable.  As a result, features that many people would want to use are buried into hard-to-find places or unknown keyboard shortcuts (command-shift-3 to screenshot? come on). In the short term, letting a user “flip a switch” to go into expert mode after getting comfortable with basic OS usage could be the easiest way to improve overall usability.  Then, all sorts of helpful tooltips, modal alerts, and more could be used to help new/novice users learn the basics.
  • firefox-downloads-screenshotThe Download – Save – Install sequence.
    Good examples: Firefox extensions and AIR applications.
    Bad examples: everything else.
    I am still stunned at the complexity of most installers, and I’m not even talking about the poorly designed installation wizards.  The number of ZIPs, SITs, DMGs, RARs, and more that sit on desktops and download folders without getting opened is awful and reflects poorly not on users, but on the developers who built these systems.  I get it that we need protection against viruses and malware, but can’t there be a smarter way to deal with this?  Yes we can.
  • Taking Screenshots.
    If making screenshots was as simple for people to use as it should be, my hunch is tech support costs for application developers would drop dramatically.  Instead, it’s a highly buried feature in both Windows and OS X, and it doesn’t look like that’s going away anytime soon.
  • Integrated support for removable storage (semi-permanent vs not).
    There are literally hundreds of millions of removable storage drives, both USB thumb sticks and external hard drives.  Yet almost no basic set of applications have native support for the concept of a “semi-permanent” drive (one that sits on your office desk, for example, but not at home).  Sure most apps can use data on these drives, but it’s always in a semi-dysfunctional manner.  iPhoto, for example, retains thumbnails on the local hard drive, but at no point informs the user that the full resolution image won’t be available until the drive is reconnected.  There should be utter clarity to the user, at all times, as to which files are where, and how to properly manage stuff.  For a follow-up example with iPhoto, I should be able to “move” folders/events to removable drives (as my iPhoto Library is the biggest space consumer on my hard drive), and it should act smartly about it.
  • Browser speed!
    Okay, this is happening in Snow Leopard anyway, but I still wanted to iterate it.  The bulk of time spent on computers is inside the browser these days, so the more the browser can natively be fast, the more productivity we have.
  • File sharing.
    I fundamentally believe that Finder and File Explorer still represent the worst aspect of computing. Watching people try to upload photos to sites like Tumblr is such an easy example of the brokenness of it all. The analog of folders/file folders is simply broken, as is the entire concept of what files, shortcuts, applications, etc are. If tied in to my earlier comment on “expert mode”, then the creation of a “novice” file browser could be a huge step forward.  In the interim, the more the OS can help promote local search, the better.
  • photo-82Webcams.
    Everybody (and I use the term fairly literally now) wants to use webcams. Whether its for dating, remote working and productivity (disclosure: Team Apart is a client of Stage Two Consulting), or staying in touch with friends or family, the webcam is probably the most useful accessory I can think of.  So why did it take me over an hour to get my father’s working with Skype? Whatever needs to happen in regards to drivers, API, and other common technology components to make Webcams work all the time needs to happen, and soon.
  • Backups.
    Both Windows and OS X include backup capabilities.  Both are better than they’ve ever been.  Neither are good enough.  If I had to make a wager on impending individualized technology crises, I’d bet that a lot of good people are going to suffer some serious data loss in the coming years.  Backup should be more than just “an option”, but an annoying, pestering reminder that prevents users from doing much without properly configuring backups.  Further, backup should be enabled on a per-file, per-folder, per-application basis (like Time Machine does, but even moreso).
  • Automatic Document Saving & Versioning.
    Technically this really lies within Office applications more than the OS, but it could happen at any level.  The entire concept of “saving” a file is ridiculous.  When you write on a piece of paper, it’s “saved”.  You can opt to discard it, which you’d have to pro-actively do.  If you want to easily retrieve it from a stack of others, you might put some special tag or label on it, or put it in a specific drawer or file cabinet that you have, which you’ve probably organized fairly easily.  Electronic files must work the same way! The entire concept that one could write a document, then accidentally click a single button to destroy hours of work is utterly idiotic. The mere act of typing a new document should save, and every edit you make should also save, and every version of every edit should be retrievable (especially considering apps like Stickies and sites like WordPress do this natively).  Instead of renaming documents, there should simply be a visual timeline and an easy-to-use slider that lets you use Time Machine-like visuals to see prior versions.
  • e-Wallets.
    If the computer guys want to stop the mobile guys and social networking guys from owning my transactions, they need to step it up soon.  A built-in wallet to more rapidly enable e-commerce and microtransactions is a logical evolution of the operating system, not a third-party Website.

Unfortunately there seems to be a bit too much energy into “video desktop backgrounds” instead.  Ah well, one can dream.  Any other “basic wants” people have to improve computing, please share in the comments!

Email, the worst excuse for communications

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Following my theme of recognizing interesting barriers of communications due to technology (well, by theme I mean one post), I thought I’d help rant about another one.  And, just like the previous topic, it’s something I’ve probably been guilty of myself, and am also working on being better about.  Email has created an amazing barrier to communications.

What do I mean?

First, there’s the signal vs noise problem of people getting too many emails.  Newsletters and other mailing lists are partly to blame, as is spam, but a real issue in my opinion is the over-CC-ing.  Whether its large internal groups or other methods of including a lot of folks, there’s a whole heckuvalot of threads people are CC’ed on that are probably unnecessary.  Regardless of the Why, I don’t know anyone who doesn’t feel they get too much email to properly handle.

Second, people are using email to do things that are better done on the phone.  For example, scheduling phone calls.  It seems like instead of just picking up the phone and dialing people have resorted to emailing each other about the future plans to call each other.  Again, I’ll be totally upfront and admit I do it too, but I’m most certainly aware of the problem and am working on it.

Third, and the real reason I wrote this post, is related to #2 above, and is all about people using email to avoid having meetings.  Here’s a summary of how those emails go, where I’ll use fictitious Bill and Steve as my two personas having a realistic, but purely fictitious dialogue:

From: Bill
Sent: Monday, July 6th at 08:11am
To: Steve
Subject: Nice seeing you at that event!
Steve,
It was fun catching up with you in the halls at that conference.  I wanted to follow up with you on meeting in person to talk about possible opportunities.  How’s next Thursday at your office?
-Bill

From: Steve
Sent: Thursday, July 9th at 04:45pm
To: Bill
Subject: re: Nice seeing you at that event!
Good to see you too.  Can’t do next Thursday, going to be in NYC.  Would love to catch up.
S

From: Bill
Sent: Thursday, July 9th at 06:11pm
To: Steve
Subject: re: Nice seeing you at that event!
No problem.  How about the week following, when you’re back from your trip?  I’m good pretty much every afternoon other than Monday.  Let me know if anything in there works for you!
-Bill

From: Bill
Sent: Tuesday, July 14th at 11:41am
To: Steve
Subject: re: Nice seeing you at that event!
Steve,
Just wanted to touch base again about next week?  I’m still free on Mon, Tues, and Fri afternoons next week.  Anything good for you?
-Bill

From: Steve
Sent: Tuesday, July 14th at 11:42am
To: Bill
Subject: Out of Office Reply re: Nice seeing you at that event!

From: Bill
Sent: Monday, July 20th at 09:01am
To: Steve
Subject: Trying again…
Steve,
Hi, I’m still interested in meeting up with you this week.  I can do tomorrow after 3pm, or Friday after 1pm.  Anything there work?
-Bill

From: Steve
Sent: Monday, July 20th at 07:41pm
To: Bill
Subject: re: Trying again…
Sorry about missing you this week.  I could do something late next week if you can come out to my office.

From: Bill
Sent: Tuesday, July 21st at 08:44am
To: Steve
Subject: re: Trying again…
Sounds great.  Next Thursday, 2pm?  I’m free that afternoon.

From: Bill
Sent: Friday, July 24th at 10:11am
To: Steve
Subject: re: Trying again…
Steve – are we on for next Thursday afternoon?  I put down 2pm if that works for you…

From: Steve
Sent: Sunday, July 26th at 9:44pm
To: Bill
Subject: re: Trying again…
Going to end up on the road for big meetings this week, I didn’t realize you meant this week.

and so on…

Now I am definitely paraphrasing, but it’s not too far off the mark.  In our above scenario (in case it wasn’t clear) Steve just doesn’t want to meet with Bill, and just doesn’t seem to want to say it.  Instead, emails are ignored, meetings are missed, etc. There are certainly lots of excuses and such, but at the end of the day, it’s either time to pick up the phone, or drop it.  He’s just not that into meeting with you.

I’m sure my list of ways email is a pain is far from exhaustive.  But moving to Facebook, Twitter, or other direct messaging platforms is just substituting one leaky ship for another.  My only recommendation for fixing it is to keep your inbox as empty as possible, and to have the good sense about picking the right communication vehicle for the task at hand.  And there’s nothing like picking up the phone and just dialing…

Are You a Jerk With a Keyboard?

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The other day I wrote about my issues with tablet computers.  My general position, in a word, was that they suck.  Now observant readers like Andrew Parker noticed my last line: “if you do figure it out, I’m buying!” My post was about the real-world limitations of tablets, and was written specifically in contrast to the hype and attention the potential of tablets (and I’m definitely not the only one who feels the category has a terrible history and numerous challenges in reaching a wider customer base).  But what sucks more than the tablets was the kind of responses I saw both on my comments here and by a blogger at GottaBeMobile.  It really got me thinking about how easy it is to be a real jerk when there is no potential for face-to-face interaction.

Being a keyboard jerk, in a nutshell, is writing things you’d never have the cajones to say to someone in person for fear of some kind of retribution.  So I write a tongue-in-cheek post about tablets, and as a result, here are some of the “counter-arguments” (from commentors and the blog post in question):

  • “Yes, sadly, I think Toeman has revealed himself as yet another critic who sits at a keyboard typing in English all day, someone who would gain no benefit from a tablet, and lacks the imagination to see beyond his condition.”
  • “Did you know that the average IQ of tablet users is 1.482 times higher than those who think that tablets suck.”
  • “It can certainly reveal how much a pundit’s opinion can suck though.”
  • “Tablets make you tired. No, you tire easily because you’re a wuss.”

As commentor “Bob” on the blog pointed out “You have good points to make; there’s no reason to hide them under the blanket of a personal attack.” Wired’s Brian Chen wrote an excellent counter-point, and at no point did he stoop to do so.

There is no debate in my mind that neither Mark (the poster) nor any commentor would have said any of the above statements had we been chatting in person.  They are easy to type, but much, much harder to say.  In person, people have to see each others’ reactions, and in general, don’t like hurting feelings or saying things that might get them, say, punched.  So I could very comfortably talk derisively about a tablet computer because, well, who cares?

Look, it’s easy to type nastily.  Mark lives on the East Coast, he has no fear of me in any way, and I’m not much the punching type anyway.  And commentors tend to do so anonymously, which in my eyes is on a par with yelling at a pedestrian from inside a rapidly moving vehicle, which is why their value/contribution is roughly nil.

The reality is we all do it at some time.  We type without thinking.  We send “nastygram” emails to coworkers, colleagues, or even loved ones.  The keyboard is just so easy to use, and there’s no reason not to move rapidly.  I tweeted about how I “hated” a company’s user interface, which is true, and in fact something I’d be comfortable saying to that company’s CEO (which I ended up doing).  But it was inappropriate, and something better said in person or in a private email, and not for public consumption (which I apologized for).

So I pledge to be less of a keyboard jerk myself, and I hope others read, consider, and follow.  I can’t promise to be perfect, but hopefuly it’ll make my IQ increase, be less of a wuss, have a better imagination, and generally suck less.

Auditing my technology dependencies

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I am in the process of signing up for Google Voice (my number ends with CALLJT, now how cool is that??) and had this minor freak-out moment realizing how much I depend on Google.  So I got to thinking about all the places where I really do rely on tech for my day-to-day living. I was wondering on my risk/exposure in the event that the given tech or service provider were to instantly stop working in a very permanent way.

Here’s my “audit”:

Technology/Provider How I Use It How Easily I’d Replace It Risk Factor (10=high)
Web site hosting: GoDaddy This blog, Stage Two’s website, my Dad’s website. Moving to another provider is easy, but I haven’t backed up the blog in a long time. Weekend project. 7 (with likely data loss)
Email serving: Gmail Gmail hosted apps holds email for all my domains (including Legacy Locker and Triv140) Switching is easy, but since I use IMAP I would have to “freeze” my existing email folders. 3 (but goes to 9 in case not all my emails are actually locally stored)
Contacts backup: Plaxo Been using Plaxo for years to backup and synch contacts (and calendaring). No equivalent service that I am aware of. 4 (it would only be problematic if I abandoned OS X, which is unlikely. but see below…)
Data backup: Time Machine/OS X Dual backups (1 at home, 1 at office) Would need to start doing manual backups, might consider Mozy or other paid service. 2
Photo backup: Flickr (paid for) Copies of all my photos are on Flickr (minus some of the early years) Would definitely seek an alternate online backup provider (4 backups of my photo library is still not enough) 1 (no vested value other than the new initial backup would be very tedious)
Communications: Cell phone Uhm, it’s a cell phone Buy a new phone. 1 (yet another example of why not spending a lot on a cell phone lowers my dependencies in this arena – even my contacts are automatically backed up by Verizon)
TV: DVR What is this thing you call “live” TV? Cut the cord. Seriously, if there were no DVR in my world I’d get a Mac Mini and hook up boxee. 9 (would’ve scored it about a 4, but there’s no hockey streaming on boxee yet)
Operating System: OS X Reliable computing (note that I’m implying all OS X computers simply disappear) Not entirely sure on this, but my hunch is I’d go with the lightest PC laptop I could find that still ships with Windows XP. Might even try Ubuntu if that wasn’t possible. 4 (I might be miserable about it, but in all reality I use so many web services that my true OS X dependency is fairly low and I’d have virtually no data loss)
Whole home music: Sonos Whole home music (including my deck!) All I can say is “yuck”. The good thing is when I wired the home I did both centralized AND decentralized speaker wiring.  But I’d have to buy a lot of way-too expensive gear to power my 8 zones, and it would have a significantly worse UI than Sonos. 8 (pretty much it’s my wife’s house with the minor exceptions of my Sonos, grill, deck, and manroom. losing any one of these components would be devastating)
Twitter Discussing the most important issues the world has ever faced.  Or something to that effect. I guess I’d lose the ability to inform random people as to my thoughts and actions. Oh, well, other than by using my blog that is. Either a 1 or a 10 depending on your perspective.  It’s either irreplaceable or you can argue I can accomplish the same thing through my blog (reach random people) and Facebook (reach people I know)
Facebook Poke my friends and occasionally throw sheep at them. I have no idea, maybe pick up the phone from time to time? Or send an email? 2.5 (we all had plenty of relationships work plenty well long before Facebook, and I’m sure humanity will figure out how to stay in touch without it.  though throwing sheep will become more challenging)
Digital Cameras (yeah, all of them become permanently gone and we all move back to film) Take way too many pix of my kids. This is such an unrealistic scenario, but it did get me thinking about how I’d cope without digital cameras (yes, this includes my Flip). It would’ve been an annoyance pre-daddyness, but now it’d be a catastrophe. 9.5 (with thousands of photos of my kids in 2 years, I am clearly “one of those dads”. and i like it)

Thanks to this site’s HTML table generator!

I’m pretty sure that’s the sum of the list of high tech products and services I feel fairly dependent on.  Sure I could include stuff like a microwave or my car stereo, but I feel these are too commonplace to really be considered “high” tech.  I also didn’t include anything that was only about a specific company (for example if Verizon or Comcast ceased to exist, since their competition offers near-identical replacement services.  ditto for things like GCal, my email client or even office software, as they are so interchangeable).

Potential soon-to-be-added services:

  • Jajah (we are considering dropping our US+Canada cell phone package and using Jajah for our calls to the Great White North)
  • Google Voice (might use my new number as my primary number from now on, with forwarding rules to cell/office as needed)
  • GPS (after my last Nuvi was stolen we went ~6 months before picking up a new one)

Anything you feel dependent on that you’d like to share with the group?

More Thoughts on Ethics

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I blogged about “twittergate” yesterday, and it seems like the topic of “was this ethical” continues to rear its head across blogs and publications. LewisPR put up a poll asking “Was TechCrunch right to publish Twitter’s business plans?” – the overwhelming majority as I write this says “no”.  So this post is dedicated to all the “yes”es out there.  I’ll outline parallel “ethical dilemmas” and we’ll see how easy this really is to boil down.

Scenario 1:
You walk into a pawn shop (for whatever reason).  While in the shop you see a car stereo selling for $10.  It’s brand new (clearly) and you pull out your iPhone, google the product number, and learn it retails for $399.  But here it is, in front of you, without a box or instructions, for only $10.  You inquire to the store manager as to its origin, he merely responds that someone sold it to him (along with a briefcase and laptop).  As you inspect the unit for damage, you see some scratches around the edges and some of the wires on the back are broken, implying it was previously mounted into a car dashboard and hastily removed. In hushed tones, the pawn broker says it was almost definitely stolen. Do you buy it?

If you said “yes”, congratulations, you are contributing to the country’s crime problem.  Well done. Scumbag.

A quick analysis of the above scenario should reveal the overall answer to why you shouldn’t buy or otherwise endorse stolen things.  Even emails.

Scenario 2:
The person closest to you in the whole world (old friend, spouse, parent, sibling – you pick) accidentally CC’s you on an internal company email with lots of important sensitive documents.  You run a top media outlet and frequently make/break news.  The documents contain many company secrets. Your friend/spouse/etc informs you that publishing the documents would cost them their job, and possibly hurt their business in a massive way (and probably end your relationship).  Do you publish them (and knowingly cause a person you love to become unemployed based on your direct actions)?

If you said “yes”, my hunch is you’ve formed no close relationships in your life and probably need some help.  Seriously, you’d do something that would cause your kid brother to lose his job? Wha???

A quick analysis of the above scenario should reveal that when your actions can hurt those you love, you think quite carefully about them.  And if that’s true, shouldn’t we have the same respect for those who aren’t necessarily as close to us?

So back to “twittergate”.  We’ve asserted that endorsing theft is wrong.  We’ve asserted that there are times when we shouldn’t reveal secrets, regardless of the means by which we learned them.  So by the transitive property…

Hello Yello! (Jawbone Prime headset review)

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Despite the ridiculousness of the headset laws in California, I have bigger fights to fight, and condone to use a headset while driving.  Until a week ago my headset of choice was the SoundID 100.  I love how easily it slips into my ear and the sound quality is great.  My three complaints were unimpressive battery life, a not-so-great pairing with my phone (which I don’t blame on SoundID, but it simply didn’t sound good with my Samsung phone), and a tendency to occasionally make screeching noises directly into my eardrum.  The latter probably being the biggest detriment to the headset.

Now loathe I am to replace a working product, when I had the opportunity to try out the newest Jawbone Primes, I was intrigued.  After all, while I’ve never had a great experience in the past (I think it was a facial hair thing), everyone else seems to love them.  I decided to try the bright yellow model (in the office it’s affectionately referred to as a banana on my head).  The pink and red ones were a little too… pink and red.  The black, silver, and brown ones were all too drab.  Leavining banana yellow as just right!  Plus it adds that touch of panache that I could only otherwise pull off by accumulating a collection of very interesting hats. Here’s a quick vid of it:


Sporting a Yello Jawbone prime. on 12seconds.tv

The Jawbone Prime is the third generation of headsets from Aliph, and this time I think they’ve got a real winner.  Others have looked good, and they’ve generally been accepted as the premium headset (I’d once have said the Cadillac of Headsets, but really, in today’s world does anyone actually want the Cadillac of Anything???), but I’ve felt they’ve lacked on performance.  Not anymore.  The unit pairs extremely well with my phone (your mileage may vary), and the sound quality is excellent.  These are obviously the top factors in considering any headset, but I’ll continue with more.

My favorite physical improvement to the Jawbone is the in-ear loops, which function quite similarly to the SoundID unit.  No more trying to wrap weird things around my ears (which I never do well and makes me feel even more uncoordinated than I am).  I haven’t yet given it the “can I leave it in my ear all day” test, but it’s definitely not uncomfortable. My only issue is I feel I’m somewhere between the medium and large earbuds.

I have no real comment yet on the battery life.  The specs claim 4.5 hrs talk time, 8 days standby, I haven’t yet had the battery die, so I would guess it’s probably slightly lower (since I’ve *never* seen an accurate battery life assessment from a company) – regardless, I keep the USB charging cable in my laptop bag now.  The packaging for the unit is truly beautiful, possibly the best-designed I’ve ever seen.  And now for the zinger – but I wish they weren’t using so much plastic and other unsustainable materials to accomplish such beauty.

Finally, my only real product complaints – the buttons.  While putting the unit in my ear, I tend to push the button that disconnects a call (while the phone is ringing).  Further, there are so many button combinations (push one of them 5 times in a row to activate a feature) that as a result I can’t remember any of them.  Now there’s an obvious, necessitated tradeoff between incorporating so much functionality and only having two buttons, but I have to think there is a better way to handle it.  That said, since I am definitely adopting the Jawbone Prime as my default headset, this is more in the “annoyance” category than anything else.

So there you have it. Definite thumbs-up for the Jawbone Prime.  Get your own not-so-mellow Yello here at Amazon for $129.

Am I too old a dog to learn a new trick?

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My music collection appears frozen in time somewhere in the mid-90s.

Despite knowing a boatload about them, I rarely buy new gadgets, almost never replacement gadgets (which is fitting in quite nicely to my shift in living a more sustainable lifestyle).

I use Office XP/NeoOffice (OXP is much, much better, but I don’t quite feel like booting up parallels all the time). The ribbon sucks.

I write long blog posts…

I was talking with Robert Scoble this weekend about blogging, FriendFeed, Twitter, online communities, and, of course, potty training.  On the call I mentioned one of my greatest stumbling blocks to writing a blog post is that as I research a given topic, I tend to find others have said the same thing I was planning to say (put enough monkeys in front of a keyboard…), and as a result don’t feel I’m adding more value, and tend to drop the post.  As constant readers have noticed, this has caused a drop-off in my blogging.

The problem for me is I really like the 5-7 paragraph “long post” format.  2-3 paragraphs aren’t enough for me to set things up the way I like, and I try to generally make some kind of point when I blog.  I’m actually fairly proud of some of the posts I’ve written over the years.  But these days I find it hard to muster the energy to get a “quality” post together.

I’ve experimented with some “roundup” posts – to good feedback, thanks!  So I’m going to try some more “quick blast” short form posts. 1-2 paragraphs on a given topic I encounter.  Don’t worry, I’m not planning to lifestream, just give more content with quick thoughts, opinions, and commentary on more things.

I’ll still keep the yawners flowing from time to time, but hopefully this will kick my butt into being a bit more regular with the ol LD.

Thoughts on… Dell Buying Palm, Facebook Vanity URLs, Building43, Project Natal, Content Consumption

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Kinda enjoying the “wrapup” post concept.  I feel less pressure to blog, and take a bit more time to collect my thoughts (instead of jumping on board any given meme as it happens).  Would definitely like to know from my reader(s?) if this is harder content to consume than more frequent, shorter posts.

Dell Buying Palm

This rumor’s been floating for a while. At the Building43/TechCrunch party I was told it was a certainty, though the NY Times thinks it’ll never happen.  At this stage in the mobile game, I think Palm does need an acquisition if it wants to survive as a big player, either that or needs a drastic overhaul/downsizing until they think like a startup again (which really is the position they are in). Dell’s a decent suitor, though I’d doubt they’d really escalate the brand to the level it needs.  I’d rather see a merger with Motorola’s mobile group, as they have the true infrastructure needed to compete at the high stakes table, and could really use an injection of creativity and new technology (no more RAZRs guys).

Facebook URLs

This whole week Facebook did a replay of Oklahama in the late 1800s (including allowing “key journalists” in sooner than us lame users). The stats last night were impressive, though I’m still sitting here scratching my head on the whole thing a little.  I’m assuming FB plans to do some serious SEO work, enabling those who grabbed useful terms like “carpenter” (no, I don’t know that guy) to generate a little business out of them. That said, some useful terms like “sanfranciscosushi” are still up for grabs, so enterprising folks should put their creative hats on and get going.  I didn’t take my name yet (having a unique name makes that kinda easy) because I just don’t get the value to me personally.  Googling Jeremy Toeman always gets me, as does the first page or two for just Toeman.  Not to say I didn’t try a few names to see how they’d feel…

gefiltefish

nah… not quite right.

Building43

My friend Robert Scoble started working at Rackspace (the place where we host Legacy Locker, btw) a few months back, and he’s been dropping hints about this “Building43” thing for a while now.  This week he formally unveiled it during the TechCrunch 4th birthday party down in Palo Alto.  First and foremost, thanks Robert and Mike for some amazingly good BBQ food – oh, and your contributions to the tech industry blah blah blah ;). So Building43 is designed as a resource for entrepreneurs and big companies alike to participate and gain feedback and insight from the tech community at large.  It’s an ambitious goal, and I wish them a lot of luck.  My biggest advice to them is to really focus on the user experience, as right now I found the site a little confusing to navigate (despite my personal familiarity with all the technologies they are using, like FriendFeed).  If it’s tough for me to find things, I can’t imagine what it’s like for those new to it.

Project Natal

Microsoft introduced “Project Natal” at E3, and there’s a rumor circulating that instead of thinking of it as a new component to the Xbox 360, it might be its own console. I love the idea of using motion capture as a video game controller (or remote control or any other kind of interface), but I think that’s where my love ends. As an idea.  Here’s the issue – it’s not good enough if it’s 99% accurate. Why?  Because the 1 time in 100 that you shoot instead of duck, or block instead of jump, or whatever mistake it makes is going the about the last time you play seriously.  Fundamental to every good user interface is absolutely perfectly reliable controls, with proper feedback mechanisms to the user.  With a motion controller, the moment the game doesn’t do what you wanted it to do, it’s all over.  Trust is lost, and the “magic moment” is replaced by dislike, then eventually anger. I saw a tweet that I think encapsulated the issue perfectly: “Project Natal is headed to the uncanny valley.”

Content Consumption

I recently realized I don’t read any blogs anymore.  I do a lot of searching.  I follow some folks on Twitter and/or FriendFeed.  But I almost never just go to sites like Engadget or TechCrunch nor friends of mine like Dave Zatz or Michael Gartenberg and just read.  And based on looking at the analytics for many of my clients’ web sites, I’m thinking I’m very much not alone.  There’s too much content, and just not enough ways to organize it.  If I were an enterprising lad, I’d be spending a lot of time figuring out how to help people deal with content overload in a very useful manner.  The right tool needs to combine all the potential sources a user wants, and give lots of ways to customize and filter it.  Google Reader isn’t enough, nor is FriendFeed, nor is Facebook.  I’ve got a hunch there’s a lot of opportunity for an excellent “get signal out of my noise” service, and it’s probably something people would pay for.

Have a great weekend everyone, I’m heading back to toil in the garden where I can be really productive.

Five Random Thoughts: Beatles Rock Band, Social Gaming, beeTV, CrunchPad, Palm Pre

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I’ve been told I’m a ‘long format blogger’ – most of my posts are fairly long (typically overly so). As a result my posts tend to take a while to write, which means I need to block out (too much) time to get them up.  And I seem to have less and less free time all the time these days, plus by the time I’m writing something, it seems like a thousand others have already written something related to what I’d write.  While I know I shouldn’t feel biased by others’ writings, at the end of the day I feel that if I’m not saying something original, what’s the point?

So in an effort to get some thoughts across, I’m going to try to do the occasional “roundup” post on a few topics all at once.  This is the first of said posts.

  1. Rock Band, Beatles Edition
    I’m not sure which game I’m more excited about, this or Modern Warfare 2.  I love The Beatles music, and I love Rock Band, so that’s a huge win. Plus I like the idea of a non-hard core version of Rock Band.  If you haven’t seen the preview, check it out here:

  2. Social Gaming
    The new enhancements to the Xbox Dashboard include integration with Facebook and Twitter.  I have a feeling most of the features will be overkill and rarely used by the majority of Xbox owners, but there is a clear improvement needed to integrating social networking and gaming.  The key missing element in my opinion is an easier way to find your friends within the Xbox Live experience.  Hopefully direct integration with the services I use for networking will help me find and connect with people in my gaming world.
  3. beeTV
    A startup raised another $8 million to provide recommendations for watching TV shows.  This is now 10 consecutive years of me watching companies try to enter this space and fail.  Further, these guys are doing deals with cable and set-top companies, two segments notoriously perilous for relying on for a business to succeed.  Who knows, maybe these guys will find that magic touch, but my hunch is (a) there isn’t a real problem in this space, and (b) making a sustainable income stream will be extremely challenging.
  4. Crunchpad
    I applaud the crunch team for their efforts on building the Crunchpad.  But I have concerns over the device itself.  First, the market – I don’t see a web tablet (at any price) effectively replacing a laptop for simple surfing, it doesn’t make sense.  Second, the usage – it’s either going to be tiring to hold it up, or it goes into the lap, which again, brings the laptop back into the scene.  Ultimately I see it as a “bread machine” type of gadget (purchased, used for a little while, then slowly migrating out of daily life until it gets regifted). I’ll be curious to see what comes of it.
  5. Palm Pre
    Reviews are saying it’s solid. Sprint’s said they anticpate a shortage. I believe both statements are accurate.  But I also believe it will never supplant the iPhone or BlackBerry, and I also believe the initial orders placed by Sprint are in low volumes relative to those products.  I think the product is probably going to be pretty solid, but I think it’s too-little, too-late for Palm.  I know back in the day I didn’t think people would switch to AT&T for the iPhone (I was wrong), but I can’t imagine iPhone people switching to Sprint for the Pre.  Maybe I’ll be wrong again…

Well, that’s my first attempt at a “ripped from the headlines” kind of post.  Feedback, comments, and spirited debate are very welcome.

Where's the Kindle Used eBook Store?

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I’ll summarize my long-winded (but well-adorned) post on the Kindle by saying: solid device, don’t like the spending model around eBooks.  While the ultimate solution for digital music and video is obviously based around subscription businesses, it’s not so clear for books.  Fundamentally the book industry has a long way to go before it truly gets threatened by the digital book industry (though clearly they shouldn’t wait forever).

I buy a lot of used books myself (on Amazon I rarely spend more than $6, shipping included, for any given book I buy). I’ve been pondering quite a bit on how to make a “used” eBook model work, and I think for a closed system like the Kindle, it’s a real possibility.  Unlike MP3s, for example, which can be duplicated perfectly infinite times, a book “file” on the Kindle has a unique code, and all Kindles are “registered” to talk to Amazon’s servers.  In other words, there’s no such thing as a “copy”, just an individual “instance”. As a result, when a single “new copy” of an eBook is sold, it’s instance is known forever.  Therefore, just as in paper books, there are a finite number of copies in existence, although unlike paper books, Amazon knows exactly where they all are.

How it works…
So what if, after reading a book, the reader could choose to “sell it back” to Amazon?  After all, when I get a paper book I can do just that (or give it to a friend), and neither Amazon nor the publisher mind terribly that I do (otherwise the used bookstore industry would be illegal).  And what if by selling it back, the original reader could get a modest credit, say $2, for use exclusively on the Kindle store.  Not much money, but it basically implies that at $9.99 per book, you get 1 free with every 5 you buy.

By selling the book, the original reader’s Kindle deletes the file, and somewhere in the Amazon servers, one new “instance” of a “used copy” of that particular title is available for purchase. Now, some other Kindle owner can browse the title, see the used copy, and buy it.  No matter what there are no extra copies being made.  This is key, because the natural cycles of supply and demand will still force new copies to get sold. In fact, this would mimic a highly efficient economic model that does not presently exist in the Kindle landscape (where buying a popular title, say Angels and Demons, costs $7.99, whereas the used paperback is selling for $0.01).

Money stuff…
I’d price the used copy at $6.99, though obviously it could be higher or lower, but that seemed like a fair price.  Also, the “resale credit” for the used book would have to be less, call it $1 per copy.  For the last part of our system to work, Amazon would pay an additional royalty to the publisher at $3.01 per used copy (that number explained later).  As our first “why this is important” story – publishers would be generating revenue from used books, something they’ve never done before.  In fact, an individual book sale becomes a recurring revenue stream, rather than a one-off sale (nightmare for the accountants, but a plus to everyone else).

Next reason why it matters? It turns out Amazon actually loses money on every new copy sold ($3.01 per book – sound familiar?).  With the used sales, Amazon would turn a profit on a title after 2 resales ($6.99 – $3.01 to the publisher – $2 to the user = $1.98 to Amazon).  After 10 resales, both Amazon and the publisher have profited (yes, it’s all profit) an additional $20 each for the title.

But wait one second young man!
Which leaves us in the inevitable problem area of the model.  It’s that unpredictable area that makes the math a wee bit hard without more data.  The question arises: how will this impact the sales of new eBooks?  Well, no, that’s the wrong question (albeit it’s the one that would/does stop anything like this from happening).  The right question is: how will this impact the overall profitability of selling eBooks?

The important part here is: it makes no difference to the publisher!  If used sales cannibalize new sales in any way, the publisher makes the same amount of money as they did before (assuming the market size doesn’t change).  Further, the more the used sales do cannibalize from new sales, the more profitable the market is for Amazon.   For example, if a given title would sell 100K copies new on Kindle, there’s $301K in revenue to the publisher, and $301K in costs to Amazon.  If 50% of the copies were “used”, then the publisher still makes $301K, but Amazon now only loses $51500 (roughly).  Now that’s some dot-com revenue thinking for you!

amz-used-books-direct

But wait, it gets even more interesting!
Let’s pretend that due to the combination of reduced costs and users earning credits for selling the books back into the system, there’s an overall increase in purchasing.  I can’t prove it, but it sure seems likely if you think about it (or make an excel spreadsheet like I did).  If used sales bump the overall market up by 5%, the same 100K title sends an extra $7500 to the publisher and reduces Amazon’s losses by about $5000 (at the 50% cannibalization rate).  If the market bumps 20%, Amazon halves their loss, and the publisher is up a total of $30K.

amz-used-books-5

While we’re at it, if cannibalization gets to 60%, Amazon is now profiting (instead of, in case I didn’t make it very very clear, losing money every time their customer buys their product).

amz-used-books-20

Not too shabby there, Mr Toeman.
I’m sure I’m missing some details here.  There are agreements I don’t know about.  There are market sizing issues I’m unaware of.  I don’t know how price-sensitive Kindle users really are.  It might be, you know, illegal due to some nonsense in the DMCA (yeah, I’m not a fan, amazing, eh?).  Also, it’s clear that current pricing for eBooks is in flux, and who knows where things will end up.

But it sure makes sense both economically and practically speaking.  In fact it’s one of those barriers that I believe prevents wider adoption of the Kindle.  Not the lack of a used eBook section, but the inability to do something with a book once you are done with it.  I’d love to be able to “gift” an eBook to a friend once I’m done with it.  Plus I think it’s a model that just “feels right” to those of us who wouldn’t throw out money on new copies of hardcover books.  Or cars, while I’m at it, as there is no single worse use of your money than buying a new car.  Well, you could set it on fire, I suppose, but that’s just plain silly.