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No, Microsoft, this will not do. Not at all.

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Microsoft introduced Windows 8 for developers today, with a specific focus on their take on the tablet.  Now some are fawning over this, but they clearly don’t recall a summer day in 2005 when Microsoft showed off Vista for the first time.  I was there. It was, in a word awesome. The early demos of Vista blew us all away, it was as if we were at the Windows 95 launch all over again.  Then Windows Vista came out, it was *nothing* like the demos, the train blew through the station, and the company’s been in a bit of a quagmire ever since, losing market share as well as credibility and prestige in virtually every category (other than Xbox).

roughly as on target as Vista was...

So today, when they show us a decently cool looking version of a tablet that isn’t going to ship for another year, after series of missteps, I’m sorry if I don’t really get particularly excited.  Particularly when I see it’s got a fan inside.  This entire move, yet again, makes me wonder: who on Earth are they building this for? What is the real market opportunity here?  Even if the Windows 8 tablet *is* as good as the current generation iPad 2, that’s chasing a product that’s already 6 months old, and will be 18 months old by the time they are in the market.  Didn’t these guys watch the movie called “HP and the Wacky Adventures of the TouchPad”?  We’ve seen how it ends!

works like nothing... else...

There really is a great market for non-iPad tablet devices, there are a few in fact.  And Microsoft is perfectly poised to build a really great tablet.  But I don’t think that perfect Microsoft tablet is about consumers, nor is it about Windows.  These markets are, at present and for the foreseeable future, mostly closed to Microsoft, and they’ll have little luck there.  So empty your heads, don’t think of anything – they’ve only got one shot at this. Microsoft needs to focus on the other key product they have, the one software package Apple can’t really touch, the one where they make a boatload of cash.  Yup, it’s Office.

yes, that WAS a Ghostbusters quote, well played!

I can write another 1000 or words on the topic, but I’m going to keep this one short and sweet.  There is unquestionably a great business opportunity in a tablet device with a great Office productivity software suite.  If the iPad is a consumption/entertainment device, then for jebus’ sake, Microsoft, learn how to cross-program, and offer a completely different thing.  And do it really well, with no big committees, and nobody who’s worked for the company for more than say 4 years.  And then go let Dell build it.  Oh, and don’t standardize (read: compromise) – make one product that works one way, no drivers, fragmentation, or anything else.

ah, that's how they get so much done!

And please, don’t tell me about it until it’s ready to ship.

Thanks, Steve!

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Apple is one of those companies that tends to polarize people. Some hate them for “closed” systems.  Others love them for beautiful products.  Some call them evil and bullying.  Others say they open markets.  I’m not one to debate, so I’ll just cut to the chase by saying Apple, in the past decade, has contributed more to consumer technology than most other companies combined.  And it’s fairly hard to argue that the Apple of today is entirely the company Steve built.

Steve Jobs’ resignation hits hard, but the only thing that comes as a surprise is the seeming suddenness of it (Yeah, but I mean the very end, when he actually resigned. That was extremely sudden).  Here’s a list of some of the things, love em or hate em, that we should all be thankful of Jobs/Apple for (and yes, I’m sure some dude in some lab somewhere invented all these things about 300 years ago, but if it weren’t for Apple, we all wouldn’t know about them):

  • Internet-based music distribution: from iTunes to Pandora to Spotify to Turntable, had it not been for Apple creating the iPod+iTunes ecosystem, it’s unlikely the music industry would’ve had sufficient motivation to enable “digital” as fast as they did.  The MP3 market would’ve grown much slower, resulting in less buy-in from the industry, resulting in a lack of streaming and on-demand services.  Would we have something like it today?  Probably.  Would it all be priced the way it is today?  Doubtful.  It took the muscle of the iPod’s dominance to enable Apple to negotiate the entire music industry into the $0.99 pricing schema we have today.  It’s likely that companies such as Amazon and Sony would’ve ended up much strong in this space, but we’d probably be paying more for the same content, and I’d wager services like Pandora would never have gotten off the ground.
  • “Real” smartphones: Unquestionably smartphones predate the iPhone.  Blackberries had some “smartness” and earlier generation Windows Mobile devices actually provided quite a bit of functionality, not to mention the granddaddy of them all, the Palm/Treo lines.  But let’s face it, the iPhone really changed everything.  Capacitive touchscreens (remember the stylus? nope, me neither), app stores (more on that to come), and more, all thanks to the iPhone’s success.  I think Nokia and RIM would still be considered the leaders in the mobile space if Apple had never shipped an iPhone, and team Android should be exceptionally grateful for its existence.
  • Gestures: Pinch + Zoom? Swipe? Multi-finger scroll?  One could argue this is just a subset of the smartphone, but it’s not, as gesture support has improved the computing experience overall.  Prior to the “two finger scroll” feature on MacBooks, the only thing even close was the variety of PC manufacturers who enabled the right-side scroll region on their inputs.  Once again, an area where numerous companies could’ve beaten Apple to the punch, but simply didn’t.
  • The Internet: Just kidding.
  • That's a Vaio?

    Nice Macbook, er, Vaio.

    Bringing Sexy Back: From the moment Steve rejoined Apple through to today, the company’s products have set the standard for technology aesthetics.  Whether it’s the sleek industrial design, the minimalistic approach, the amazing attention to detail, or the use of aluminium, it’s as if Apple showed up in a Porsche while everyone around them were driving Volvos (boxy, but good).  As a result, there’s been an almost frenetic rush to make distinctive, beautiful technology.  And some of it’s even been pretty good!

  • Changing Retail: When Apple first announced they’d open their own retail stores, they were literally laughed at. There’s now over 300 of them, and they are unbelievably successful.  They are considered the best retail customer experience overall. They are wildly profitable.  Consumers enjoy going there even when they don’t buy things.  In fact, my only surprise here is the lack of copycats – nobody’s even close to creating a similar experience at such a grand level.  Well, maybe in China…
  • The App Economy: Yes, my PalmPilot had installable apps, and so did my Windows Mobile phone.  But it took Apple to create a nearly $4-BILLION app economy and marketplace.  My hunch here is without Apple revolutionizing the concept (by, again, creating a full end-to-end experience regarding discovery, installation, and most importantly, payment, for apps), we’d have nothing even as advanced as the Android market is today, which I still consider to be floundering in the dust relatively (simple tip to radically improve said experience: sort all apps AND reviews by device – will fix 80% of fragmentation problems in one fell swoop).
  • The iPad: Remember when tablets really sucked?  Guess what, they still do.  But what doesn’t suck is the iPad.  Other than speculation and conjecture, the reality check is the only successful “tablet-like product” on the market is the iPad, all others pale in comparison.  I could write a dozen or so blog posts on what everybody else is doing wrong, but the thing that matters here is all the things Apple did right.  They made something that perfectly fits into a few dozen million peoples’ lives.  Flash? Nobody cares.  USB?  Nobody cares.  “Closed system”?  Nobody cares.  The iPad, as if by magic, navigated through the waters of touch-input devices to create the admittedly-not-perfect product, but so far beyond “good enough” that it’s changed computing as we know it.

I’m sure I’m missing a bunch of things that the company did that I can’t even recall at this moment, but these were the ones that hit me as most important.  How did they do it?  The comfort in saying “no, we can’t ship that yet, it’s just not ready.”  The comfort in saying “it’s okay if we aren’t providing every feature known to man, just so long as our features are great.”  The comfort in saying “we don’t have to be perfectly compatible with all other technologies that have come before us, if we make a strong ecosystem ourselves.”  The comfort in saying “we believe this is what people really want, and we’re going to give it to them.”

These are statements that no other technology manufacturer or provider make, so far as I’ve seen in my career (with brief exceptions, such as Sling, Flip, and a handful of others).

When Steve Jobs rejoined Apple in the late 90s, it’s well known that he rapidly ripped apart products, cut staff, and trimmed down the entire operation to get radically focused.  Since then, beyond all the technology and products, what Steve’s done the most is built the very DNA of the Apple that we know today.  The real contribution Steve made, in my opinion, was creating a culture of building to perfection, and understanding what that means as a core essence.

As I commented on TechCrunch, “Much like when a pitcher walks from the mound, the entire tech industry should stand and give a round of applause for one who has contributed so much.”

Time to call it a day

When a pitcher takes that walk, sometimes it’s because they’re pulled.  But every now and then, that pitcher gave his all, kicked some amazing ass, and it’s just time for him to take a rest.  But along the way he carried or maybe even made the game.  And his spirit carries the team even further.  And for those of us watching on the sidelines, we rise with applause, out of thanks and respect.

You rocked our world!

And then the game carries on.

Does anyone *really* use Android tablets?

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My friend Harry has done some deep sleuthing (read: he Googled it) and it’s seeming that two of the “user testimonials” in Samsungs latest ads are in fact made by actors:

I did notice, however, that freelance travel writer Joan Hess bears a striking resemblance to New York actress Joan Hess:

And that real estate CEO Joseph Kolinski could be New York actor Joseph Kolinksi‘s twin brother:

Filmmaker Karl Shefelman, on the other hand, looks a lot like…filmmaker Karl Shefelman. Who works for a New York production company. One that’s done work for Samsung.

Don’t fret too much folks, they aren’t the only ones to have faked some reviews.

Now I know I’m a long-time non-fan of Android, and my experience with the Xoom is only exacerbating those feelings, but really, what is going on here?  I wrote a post back in the day explaining why I felt the tablet market was generally doomed, but the iPad proved me wrong.  Or did it?  Is the reality that only Apple can ship a “tablet-like product” successfully?

I think the answer might be something like “for the overwhelming majority of regular people, absolutely yes.”

As far as I can tell, the best use of any Android tablet presently on the market is to develop apps for Android tablets.  Yes, I’m dead serious with that comment.  Laptop mag just did a head-to-head comparison with the Xoom and iPad 2, and somehow actually managed to make it a “close call” – but then again, the guy writing it somehow managed to find the Android interface “better” than the iPads.  If you are technically proficient, interested in widgets, and like coding, I could see that perspective.   If you aren’t, it’s flat out wrong.  But I digress (like usual).

So I come back to the key question here: who is using these things, and to what end?  I’ve *never* seen one in the wild, and I live in the utter mecca of techieness (heck I even see Nooks on the bus to work).  Further, I’ve yet to meet a single person outside of the tech echochamber who is even really aware of these devices, let along truly in the market for one.  Go to the retail stores and try to get demos – there’s typically at most a single person in a store who even knows how to demo them (and yes, I do go to stores and do ask these kinds of questions – and anyone who claims to understand regular consumers and how they use technology should do at least the same)!

I’m working on another post (coming soon) on where I feel there is a market opportunity for HP and the like to bring tablets to market successfully, but if there’s one aspect I’m utterly convinced of – there is virtually no consumer market for non-iPad tablets. And by “virtually none” I’ll go with “about a million in North America, maybe two tops.”

Microsoft To Launch Tablet at CES: Again

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If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, then Microsoft needs a straitjacket.

How many times has Microsoft tried a tablet? At least four, over the past eleven years. How many times have they failed? Four. Today the New York Times is reporting that Microsoft is taking aim at the iPad and will introduce several tablet PCs at CES next month.

People familiar with this device said it will run the Windows 7 operating system when in landscape mode, but will also have a layered interface that will appear when the keyboard is hidden and the device is held in a portrait mode.

[SNIP]

The applications will not be sold in an app store, as with the Apple iTunes model, but Microsoft will encourage software partners to host the applications on their own Web sites, which will then be highlighted in a search interface on the slate computers. It is unclear if these applications will be ready for C.E.S. as most are still in production.

Making hardware is not that hard. Almost anyone can build a tablet computer these days. Making a great tablet is very hard. I’d even wager that the team behind the iPad looks at their product and all they can see is future improvements. That said, it is clearly the best tablet we’ve got so far. It is hard to replicate the iPad’s usability. It is hard to capture intuitive and repeatable gestures. It is hard to capture Apple’s mindshare and market position.

It seems these days that Microsoft is reacting instead of leading. Their fundamental approach is “iPad is not that good and doesn’t meet the needs of business professionals.” And that plan just isn’t working out for them.

What happened to the Microsoft that invented Windows? Remember Start Me Up? What happened to the company that built Office and the Xbox? I want to root for Windows and Microsoft. I want Microsoft to deliver simple, beautiful technologies to people.

And just like I have for the past few years, I’ll be skipping Ballmer’s CES demo. Not that I don’t want to be there. It is that I feel like I have been there before. I will hope for something amazing. I would love to discover that I missed the best keynote ever. But instead, if it even mentions Microsoft one note, someone should have a straitjacket on hand just in case.

New TEDTalks iPad app is good – here's how to make it great

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I was thrilled to discover the new TEDTalks app for my iPad this morning, and quickly installed and liked much of the experience.  There they are, over 700 amazing Talks to listen to.  This is particularly sweet for me as I watch a TEDTalk on my iPad virtually every morning whilst on the bus to the office, currently obtained through the suboptimal process of subscribing to the podcast in iTunes, and syncing to the iPad.  And if I may slide for a moment here, I can’t believe in 2010 there’s still anything that has to “sync” via a wire.  But I digress, back to TED.

In just a few minutes of use I quickly realized the app was content-rich, but not feature-rich.  While the “Inspire Me” feature is extremely well done (it’s all about length of video – this is a key realization most entertainment/content people need to clue in on), I felt it was otherwise a little flat. In fact, it’s not going to be very useful for my personal needs, and I’m concerned that’ll be true for others as well.  So in my support of TED, and by the way – I genuinely believe that if all people watched TED Talks the world would actually be a better place – I thought I’d quickly jot out the notes to make it better for users such as myself.

  1. Add search
    The browse works great, but there’s no search.  So when I see a tweet from a friend about a given TED Talk, I can’t find it without browsing for it.  And, to boot, I need to know the category/tag that applies to the talk to find it.  While we’re at it, make search by keyword and author too.
  2. Add alphabetical browsing
    Per above, at present you need to know how the Talk is categorized to find it.  Personally, I’d like to find something just by browsing a list of titles.
  3. Add sharing features
    At the end of virtually every TEDTalk, I want to share it with someone, whether a peer, my team, a friend or family member, or the entire world on Twitter.  Add simple “tweet this” and “like this” and “email a link to this” TEDTalk to every clip.  Also, the link should probably share the YouTube or TED.com version of the clip.
  4. Add a history/watched list
    Once I’ve watched a few dozen videos, I find it hard to remember if I’ve seen one, or hard to remember the exact title of one if I want to reshare it.  A simple history feature is essential.  And in the would-be-nice category?  Show me “You Watched this on MMDDYY” on the video preview page if I come back to it.  Also, add a “mark viewed” feature along the way, in case I’ve watched the Talk on another platform.
  5. Incorporate social features
    Since everyone’s busy “liking” everything else via Facebook these days, would be great to see in a video profile page that friends of mine have liked something.
  6. Add download controls
    Once I begin a download, there appears no way to delete the download, queue for later, or otherwise manage whats going on.
  7. Add more “cool views”
    Timelines. Maps. Duration.  etc.
  8. Integrate with other platforms
    There’s the TED site, YouTube, the iPad app, a forthcoming iPhone app, a Boxee app, the iTunes podcast, and I’m sure more to come.  Assume I am using more than one method to consume the content, then allow me to integrate from one to the other.  In other words, let me favorite something on your site, then see that on my iPad app.

I think the “1.0” version of the app is probably pretty decent for most people.  If you have even a few free minutes and an Internet connection and want to get inspired, this app will certainly do the trick.  Hopefully these ideas can help inspire team TED to take it just a bit further!

The difference between Fragmentation and Disparate Products, a counterpoint

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My friend Louis Gray wrote a piece tonight mostly about the new Apple TV, but focusing on how he believes Apple is introducing fragmentation into their ecosystem.  Go ahead, give it a read.

I was writing the following as a long comment, and just as I was wrapping up I thought it would serve better as a blog post.  Please consider it a counter-point, and you should definitely read Louis’ arguments first.  Go ahead, click there, then read all the way through the comments until you get to…

“I’ve yet to see anybody dispute the facts about each device running a different flavor of the OS, which is the crux of the issue.”

The reason nobody’s disputing it is because it’s not actually an issue.  Apple does not, for the most part, have fragmentation in their platforms (other than tiny exceptions, which I’m sure someone will point out snarkily in the comments).  This is about disparate products, not a fragmented operating system implementation (though I do completely agree that the iTunes experience is woefully out of date within the overall product line Apple sells).

First, all the comparisons about what does/doesn’t play on Apple TV on day 1 of shipping are irrelevant – the wide swath of Americans who will buy the device will pick it up later this year (you know, November-ish), by which time the content library will be different.

Second, it’s not as if there’s any cross-product features, other than the few apps which happen to run both on an iPad and on an iPhone/Touch.   When we talk about Android fragmentation it’s because all the products are being labeled as having a common platform, yet there is MASSIVE discrepancy between user interface, app compatibility, features, etc.

Third, Apple isn’t out there marketing “iOS 4 devices” other than when it needs to in re updating iPads/iPhones.  And even then, it’s highly product-specific.  Android, on the other hand, *is* a promise/value expectation (and I’ll avoid commenting on the quality at this point).  When Google touts new Android features and someone with a Droid Eris (my former, sad sad sad phone) hears about them, they have *NO WAY* of knowing they will never ever get them.

Fourth, and last, is about the developers.  Ultimately fragmentation is most keenly an issue to them (even more than consumers), as it impacts their livelihood.  So if you are developing for Android, yet your app won’t run on the mega-phone Evo, and runs poorly on a Droid X, but is nice on the HTC Incredible (my current, much better, but still lacking phone), how are you supposed to communicate that to consumers, who will inevitably write poor reviews, not trust your brand, and ultimately not spend money with you.

That’s the problem with fragmentation.  Now let’s look at developers for iOS – they know exactly (1) how big their market potential is, (2) where the money is flowing, (3) how to build apps within the ecosystem, and (4) with 100% certainty, which devices their apps will run on.  A bad user experience is utterly the developers’ faults, not due to some random hardware maker poorly implementing an OS.  And if/when Apple TV gets iOS 4 (my prediction is it doesn’t happen until the next version of the device, but I’m getting a lot of these wrong these days, so who knows???), developers will have a clear path to build whatever apps they can, knowing exactly how they will perform.

Predictions for Apple event, Sept 1 2010

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Watch live video from Jeremy Toeman on Justin.tv

In a nutshell:
– iPad iOS 4.0
– refreshed iPods, with wifi
– no 3x3cm iPod touch
– adding “touch” to iPod classic
– iTunes with internet streaming & sync
– no iTV announcement today
– iBeatles

My guest on Fox News' Gadgets and Games is online!

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Big thanks to Clayton Morris for having me on his show last week.  We talked a lot about Google TV, as well as some iPad cases and some Android chat.  I had a few Skype/headset technical difficulties, but overall it seemed to work quite well!  Was on with esteemed guests Ross Rubin, Dan Costa, and Jeff Pulver.

Two Weeks Later: Why I'm Keeping my iPad

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I purchased an iPad on day one (roughly minute 3), without much assurance as to how or why I’d use it, or even if it would be a “keeper” in my digital lifestyle.  Here’s a recap of my feelings over the past two weeks:

Day one.
Let’s be honest, the first day of any new toy is either “wow this is awesome” or “gosh I’m disappointed”.  Most products don’t get well-tested in their first few hours of use, and it’s generally hard to evaluate the real-world practicality of any device.  For example, a digital camera will take good pictures, but you might not try it in a fast-action setting; similarly a GPS device will get you to your first destination, but you won’t evaluate how rapidly it finds the signal when you are lost up in Tahoe.  My day one was a lot of fun.  I didn’t really “do anything” with the iPad, other than try downloading stuff, typing on the keyboard, doodling in one of the (way too many) doodle apps.  Good times.

Week one.
Within three days I had sync’ed my email, contacts, and calendar to the device, and all worked quite smoothly.  I copied some photos, videos of the kids, some Arrested Development episodes, and some music from my library.  I also experienced my first real “use” of iTunes as a sync platform – it’s okay, but has some bizarre shortcomings that I was quite surprised about.  I downloaded a few apps (all free ones, didn’t want to buy anything yet and still haven’t bought one yet to this day actually),  played with them, kept some, deleted others.

Most of my time in week one was spent using the device in three settings (well, kinda four – read below)

  1. On the bus
    Media device: Watched videos, wrote a blog post, listened to podcasts
  2. At the office
    “Accessory” computer to my iMac:  Mostly light email, calendaring, some Harbor Master.
  3. At home
    Laptop replacement: light-to-moderate email, Web surfing, lots more Harbor Master.
  4. Demo to others
    My fourth scenario was simply showing the iPad to anyone around – lots of inquisitive folks wanting to see it in use. I wish I was getting a commission.

Week two.
The second week of use was my true “now how do I feel” week with the iPad.  Was it actually better/easier/more convenient than my MacBook?  Did I really want to carry this on the bus or other places? Would a murse fit into my lifestyle okay (separate post of iPad cases & sleeves coming)?

The above answers were all “yes”es, and more.  The only three uses of my MacBook last week were: watch NHL GameCenter (Go Habs!), sync and backup digital pictures, and charge/sync content to my iPad.  For literally everything else I used my iPad in lieu of the MacBook.  And not only did I use it, I found myself preferring it for most casual use.  But then this weekend got even more interesting.

On two different occasions this weekend (at a movie theater and while touring farms North of San Francisco) we had the iPad handy to look up long lists of content.  To be perfectly clear, we opted to carry an iPad rather than print out Web pages.  This was a conscious choice, and not in any way for “show off” factor (don’t worry – that was accomplished through plenty of other methods).  It was just an easy way to bring content along with us AND have our calendars AND have email history AND have contacts/address book information.  Things we obviously could do with smartphones (but generally choose not to), paper (ugh), or laptops.  But I’d *never* throw my laptop in the trunk on a day trip – something that just felt natural with the iPad.

It ain’t all kool-aid!
There are certainly flaws with the iPad.  In fact, my evernote-based list of likes/dislikes actually has more entries on the dislike list (future blog post).  It is, unquestionably, about the least ergonomic device I’ve used (the lap-pad pics from their ads are great, but radically unrealistic).   The lack of even simple multi-tasking (mail + calendar anyone?) can be annoying.  They could even take a cue out of Android and include a “back” button that spans multiple apps.  More on this in a future post.  But most importantly…

It’s not a replacement for any computer.  Just some.
As much as I believe the iPad has major impact in regards to light/casual/home computing, I don’t think most households could get by with “only” an iPad.  The lack of ability to effectively handle one’s digital camera needs is a “killer feature” for having a computer.  Further, no businessman could possibly exist on the iPad alone, though it’s an amazing complement to one.  I will say that I believe mail on the iPad vastly outshines any other non-computer device, specifically including BlackBerries, and that’s an important piece of ground for Apple to break.

But it is game-changing, and almost definitely not a bread machine.
I like having the iPad around.  I like turning it on, using it, then knowing it’s still there. It feels like everything the original PalmPilot put into my hands (though unfortunately not my pockets), only in context of computing and the Internet in 2010. I believe my use will only increase, and intend to start purchasing apps now.  It’s probably the most interesting digital accessory one can purchase, and unquestionably dabbles in “computer turf”.  I thoroughly enjoy using it, and find that it is helpful (not harmful) to overall productivity.  Except, of course, when I play Harbor Master.

Apple to Developers: Shall We Play A Game?

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Apple announced new MacBook Pros today, and I think Michael Gartenberg addresses about 40% of the importance with his post on it.  The other 60% (maybe more), in my opinion, is about gaming.

Gaming’s long been a thorn in the side of Mac users.  In a previous era the Mac platform represented only the most miniscule of computer purchasing, and even today it’s just a fraction of all computers sold.  That is, until you look explicitly at the home and high-end laptop markets, at which point the story gets more interesting.

Last month it was announced that Steam (a gaming platform) was coming to the Mac.  Today, inside their official announcement for the new MacBook Pros they explicitly state:

More than twice as fast as the GeForce 320M, the powerful new GeForce GT 330M provides incredibly smooth, crisp on-screen graphics for the most demanding 3D games, creative software and technical applications.

Video games are an $11 BILLION dollar industry. That’s more zeroes than I can type.  And almost none of it is on the Mac platform.

Yet.

I’m a big believer in betting on trends.  Further, if I apply our typical analysis as to determining market viability for gaming on the Mac, here’s how it looks:

  1. Does the infrastructure already exist?
    It does now. Macs have sufficient hardware and a mature enough OS to enable immersive gaming (a requirement for non-console games), as well as well-integrated connectivity and media sharing for casual gaming.
  2. Does the product tie into a rising trend?
    As stated above, “heck yeah”.
  3. Is there already an “acceptable” solution to the problem?
    No, the only way to play games on the Mac today is either (1) use BootCamp or (2) play Web-based games.  Minorly acceptable for some, but clearly not touching on that $11B number.
  4. Is there a perceived need?
    Quite clearly, people like to play computer games, and there just aren’t many for the Mac. So yes.
  5. Is there a want for the product?
    Gaming is one of those rare “need/want” industries.  Some basic googling will find evidence on both sides of “are computer games a waste of time” but let’s simply agree it’s debatable.  It most certainly is a high “want” and has tons of emotional and cultural significance these days.

I believe Apple has laid all the groundwork necessary to entice game developers to really pay some attention to their platform.  They’ve showed them a clear revenue path through iPod/iPhone/iPad distribution models, and the Mac is the final bridge to cross.  The only downside whatsoever is the amazing costs that go into modern game production, with budgets reaching $100 million, and climbing.  But considering a $50-60 price tag, and popular games selling 1-3 million (or more), the possibilities are unquestionably there.

Game on!

the iPad will kill home computing, period

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I’m writing this on my ipad, from the bus, really just to see if I can and how well it works (and how much the motion sickness will hit me by the time I’m done). Note: the preceding sentence was unfortunately all that i recovered after I accidentally quit without saving. But i can tell you i wrote a lot, and am mild to moderately queasy now, but am at a computer to finish it up.  Not for any reasons other than there’s just nothing better than a 27″ screen!

Why am I so bullish on the iPad?  In a nutshell, it does 80% (or more) of the things most people need to do with their computers in their home life.  Here’s a quick rundown on the 5 major components of “common use computing” and the iPad’s “fit” to task…

  1. Email.
    Email is either top or the 2nd-most important personal computing task.  Email on the iPad works great, especially for typical “staying in touch” emails, forwarding along urban myths, sharing funny videos, and all the things most people use email for on a day-to-day basis.  As my last time stating it – this is not about office computing, nor those who are taking office computing tasks and doing them at home!
  2. Web surfing.
     Again, either 2nd or top on personal activities is simple Web surfing.  Facebook, YouTube, viewing photos, reading stuff, playing games, etc.  While there is a major drawback in the lack of Flash, the reality is this will change one way or the other (in other words: either less Flash on the Web, or Flash comes to the iPad) sooner or later.  In my weekend’s worth of use I encountered flash twice, though on the other end my cousin’s kids were rendered practically useless to visit the sites they frequent.  Safari on the iPad is a very nice browsing experience, though I believe it could be improved a lot – tabs, for example, probably do make sense (where they didn’t on the iPhone).  In the “80%” view, it’s definitely above satisfactory.
  3. Media consumption & playback.
    “Stellar” is probably the right word I have to describe the iPad as a media device.   Video looks amazing, music playback is the same as any iPod, it just works great.  My wife’s already streamed a Netflix movie, and I’ve synced kid videos from our Flip (they actually look better than they do on the higher resolution screen of the MacBook).  Moving to mixed media types, well there’s again, the lack of Flash, but the YouTube app works well enough, Marvel has a very interesting comic book reader, and I expect we’ll see other new forms of content coming soon.  Again, there are quirks, but it’s overall one of the best media players I’ve seen.
  4. Simple productivity.
    Most people don’t need PivotTables, Custom Animation, and WordArt.  They need basic spreadsheets, simple presentations, and light document editing and creation.  For a fee, those features are available for those who’d like them, and my hunch is you’ll see a lot more show up in the coming months.  Those apps plus EverNote, WordPress, and others enable some very light touch (or is that multi-touch) ways to continue to manage non Web-content on the iPad.
  5. Gaming.
    Gaming on the iPad is great, though it does not replace PC gaming at all (hence the magic 80% number).  Further, initial reviews of some “power games” for the iPad, such as Command and Conquer, imply it can do a lot more than just labyrinth.  I do feel the power-gaming community will not ebb from their platforms, but I do think the iPad will represent a lot of new gaming potential for both casual and heavy gamers.

I will maintain my statement that the iPad is ushering in a new era of gadgetry, in fact it’s probably going to change the way we think about computers in the future. There are, and always will be, complaints and criticisms of new products.  It doesn’t quite do everything as perfectly as possible.  Yup, check, that is true to all things.  But perfection is not, and never will be, delivered by any kind of gadget or technology.  There’s always going to be something it misses out on.  But then again, when was the last time you bought a $500 device to help you fold a t-shirt?  So there!

And for those of you who still feel “it could be more” or complain about the lack of a camera, here’s a video reminder for you to enjoy…

Everything’s Amazing, Nobody’s Happy from frijole on Vimeo.

What if the iPad turns out to be a bread machine?

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With all my gushing over the iPad (considering I haven’t even touched one yet), I thought I would take a moment to write about the dark side of the device.  After all, it very well could miss the mark for fitting into my lifestyle.  The more I considered it, the more I realized the potential gadget parallel – the bread machine.

If you’ve ever had a bread machine, or know someone who has, the following probably sounds a little familiar.

Day zero:

Day one:

  • Receive bread machine.  Either as gift or because someone told you that you just had to have one.
  • Unbox it with extreme excitement.
  • Plug it in.
  • Find all the ingredients you need, make a loaf of bread.
  • Eat the loaf, marveling in the joy of fresh hot bread.
  • Tell all your friends about the amazing new bread machine.

Days two-ten:

  • Research more bread recipes.
  • Buy different types of grains, flours, seeds, yeasts, and other ingredients.
  • Make some “wacky” types of breads.  No less than one loaf per day.
  • Slowly settle in on your personal favorite.
  • Tell all your friends about the amazing new bread machine and that they HAVE to have one.

Days ten-thirty:

  • Make a loaf every few days.
  • Run out of ingredients when you want to make bread, get annoyed.
  • Get a little tired of cleaning the bread machine.
  • Start buying some bread from stores again.

Days thirty-sixty:

  • Make a loaf or two.
  • Move the bread from the middle of the kitchen counter to a cabinet somewhere.
  • Buy lots of bread.

Day sixty-one:

  • Either put bread machine in the garage, or give it to a friend/relative

Now other than the bread machine enthusiasts who are going to come leave nasty comments, I think I’ve done a fair job recounting the story of the “gadget I didn’t truly need, but had a lot of fun with for a little while.”  The iPad may certainly fall into this category.  As I’ve previously blogged, I’m quite excited about the device, but still don’t quite know why.  My hunch says it won’t be just a novelty that gets shelved in a few weeks or months, but it could happen.

My Flip cam is a bit of a novelty gadget – I still use it from time to time, but not the way I expected to.  I’d put bluetooth headsets into this category for most people.  Any kind of “power mouse” or other computer accessory that really just adds to the complexity.  The Sony Dash.  Digital Picture Frames.  Most kitchen gadgets (hence the bread machine).  My OLPC is my grand champion worthless piece of green plastic.  Novelty stuff.

How can you tell if something is just a novelty?  I’d say it falls into one, or both of the following definitions: Things that people buy without a clearly defined lifestyle benefit, OR things that don’t provide value in a easier/faster/better way in life.  So a digital picture frame has a benefit (see your pictures without using your computer), but it’s actually harder/slower to do so than a computer, so it’s a novelty.  Bluetooth headsets have clear benefits, but having to remember to bring them with you AND keep them charged creates more work.  The OLPC? Fuggedaboutit!

So the iPad?  No clearly defined lifestyle benefit I can think of (I can do all the same things with my laptop).  But is it easier/faster/better for doing anything?  Yes.  This may sound trite, but I firmly believe it will be a easier/faster/better way to do “general Internet things.”  And I’m fairly convinced that that category is ill-defined today, but will be a distant memory in the not-all-that-distant future.

Or I could be wrong and you’ll hear about my mom using it in a couple of months…