• About

LIVEdigitally

Prediction: Cord Nevers Become Cord Getters

Posted on January 22, 2013 by Jeremy Toeman

El Cable Guy es Mucho Loco

As the phenomenon of predicting the death of TV via cord cutters is waning, it’s being replaced by a plausible (at first) sounding theory: cord nevers.  Whereas a cord cutter is one who cancels their Pay-TV service for free/streaming alternatives, a cord never is, roughly, a person under the age of 22 who, upon renting their first apartment after college, never subscribes for TV services in the first place.  My theory at this point is these people may live happily cable-free for a year or few, but sooner or later, they’ll pay.  Here’s a few reasons why:

Cultural Zeitgeist
The single most common binding element pulling modern culture together today is TV, and I can’t see anything replacing that in the short term.  As someone nearing the end of their first year watching entirely “catch up” I’ve noticed, multiple times, the feeling of being left out of some conversations.  By the way, I’d like to keep this post and ensuing discussion free from judgment regarding watching decisions – I don’t care what the show is, everyone’s free to be entertained however they’d like.  But I currently have no idea what exactly a Honey Boo Boo is, nor what the Amish Mafia are after, and I have literally zero friends who just finished Season 4 of The Wire like I just did (btw – awesome).  I believe the natural gravitas of “fitting in” will drive most people toward paying.

Cheapest Entertainment Around
Estimates vary, but for a typical 4+ hours/day home, watching TV with a pay-TV provider works out to about $0.25/hour.  People love to complain about their cable bill, but they really wouldn’t if they did the math. (not that I’m advocating any provider, I’m just not dissing on them either).   Then again, math is hard.

victoryag.org Laziness FTW
While it’s certainly simple enough to browse Netflix on my Apple TV, find a show, then watch it, it’s nowhere near as simple as turning on the TV, then pushing “channel up” enough times until something watchable appears.  As I’ve blogged about elsewhere, I fundamentally believe in the “escapism” nature of TV watching, which makes an all-on-demand lifestyle a lot of work.

More Money, Less Time
It’s easy to talk about “those kids today” and their willingness to watch movies in 10 minute increments on YouTube.  Yeah, I remember college too –  I had loads of free time, no money.  Now I have no time, and while I don’t have loads of money, I can easily do the mental math to figure out the money value of time makes hunting around websites and menus not a good use of time.

TV, now with Free Internets!
As the pay-TV industry has morphed into MVPDs (“multichannel video programming distributor” – worst rename ever!) and offer Internet and voice and home automation and monitoring and security and dishwashing and laundry and other services (mostly for sheer profit – other than the laundry part), the allocation of revenue is less relevant for them.  They can offer quintuple packages and more because it doesn’t really cost them anything, and most have invested so much money into capital expansion that they can continue to lay out new value added services for incremental costs.  So perhaps we’ll eventually pay for TV, with free everything else – or vice versa – it just won’t matter that much.

While I do fundamentally believe we are in the middle of the most transformative era of television behaviors since the advent of the cable industry, I also think we are far from a radical new world.  Looking forward to constructive comments and feedback below.

Share this:

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • Reddit

Related

Posted in General | 3 Comments
« Why the HBO/Universal deal is VERY important
To Win in Technology, Sell Benefits, Not Features »

3 thoughts on “Prediction: Cord Nevers Become Cord Getters”

  1. Nate says:
    January 22, 2013 at 3:43 pm

    I think you have a valid point. Cord nevers are usually that because they don’t have jobs and have no money to pay for tv. as they get jobs and make money, the convenience is easily paid for.

    However, as technology makes it easier to get what you want, when you want it, without paying $17 a month for DVR and disruption happens, i think there will be fewer people paying for what exists today. Someone will offer an a la carte model, and that will expand from there. Aereo is making things interesting. Also depends on jobs/economy. I’m lazy, but won’t mind canceling cable to save money. Which I’m doing right now, literally, as we speak. Live sports is always the issue. But aereo and tuners make it possible. Power is still with content providers. They know this.

    It is an interesting time, indeed.

    Reply
  2. davis freeberg says:
    January 22, 2013 at 4:04 pm

    There’s something to be said for your argument about cultural zeitgeist, but I think DVR usage may limit how powerful this is as a draw. Even before I ditched cable, my DVR use pretty much drove me away from anything that could contain a spoiler. Now that I’ve cut the cord, I don’t even realize that I’m missing watercooler buzz. As far as cost and laziness goes, I pay way less to subscribe to TiVo + Netflix and then get free signals via an HD Antenna. I can’t speak for others, but after 4 years cable free, I’m pretty confident that I won’t be a subscriber again in the near future.

    Reply
  3. Paul McCormick says:
    January 25, 2013 at 11:26 am

    Interesting perspective. Another way of emphasizing your final point, which I strongly agree with, is; let’s not forget that regardless of the source of your TV content, whether it’s from cable or from broadband, you still need a Cord to view it. So, regardless of your choice to pay for TV, or not, you still need to pay for your broadband connection. Cable companies understand this very well. That is why they are moving towards an IP-Only TV network capable of delivering any type of content, from live sports to YouTube videos. My prediction is that in the future there will be a Basic package which will be nothing more than just a medium data rate broadband connection, with the freedom to stream anything you can find on the net, but not at the speed needed for a quality real-time viewing experience. And, for a few dollars more, you will be able to upgrade to a higher speed connection and a series of tiered packages including live sports, live social programming such as “The View” and Movies on Demand streamed at higher bit rates compared to the medium bit rates offered in the Basic package.
    So why hasn’t this happened yet? Because the Cable companies are still figuring out the monetization models with advertisers and other content sources such as Netflix. They also need more time to get the new IP-Only infrastructure in place and the newly designed content management systems that will allow subscribers to find what they’re looking for, easily and quickly. But it’s coming, and when it does, the subject of “Cord Cutting” will be a page in the history books.

    Reply

Leave a Reply to Paul McCormick Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

About

Jeremy Toeman is a seasoned Product leader with over 20 years experience in the convergence of digital media, mobile entertainment, social entertainment, smart TV and consumer technology. Prior ventures and projects include CNET, Viggle/Dijit/Nextguide, Sling Media, VUDU, Clicker, DivX, Rovi, Mediabolic, Boxee, and many other consumer technology companies. This blog represents his personal opinion and outlook on things.

Recent Posts

  • Back on the wagon/horse?
  • 11 Tips for Startups Pitching Big Companies
  • CES 2016: A New Role
  • Everything I Learned (So Far) Working For a Huge Company
  • And I’m Back…

Archives

Pages

  • About

Archives

  • January 2019
  • April 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • May 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • June 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • September 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • October 2009
  • September 2009
  • August 2009
  • July 2009
  • June 2009
  • May 2009
  • April 2009
  • March 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2008
  • September 2008
  • August 2008
  • July 2008
  • June 2008
  • May 2008
  • April 2008
  • March 2008
  • February 2008
  • January 2008
  • December 2007
  • November 2007
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • August 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004

Categories

  • Convergence (81)
  • Gadgets (144)
  • Gaming (19)
  • General (999)
  • Guides (35)
  • LD Approved (72)
  • Marketing (23)
  • Mobile Technology (111)
  • Networking (22)
  • No/Low-tech (64)
  • Product Announcements (85)
  • Product Reviews (109)
  • That's Janky (93)
  • Travel (29)
  • Video/Music/Media (115)
  • Web/Internet (103)

WordPress

  • Log in
  • WordPress

CyberChimps WordPress Themes

© LIVEdigitally
loading Cancel
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.