Mobile Technology – Page 6

iPhone lines cost US over 10 years of productivity

Posted on June 29, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

So I went reading through a few stories of iPhone lines, ranging from Scoble to Engadget to Ars Technica and more (full list to follow). In these posts, stories are shared of lines ranging from 20 to 200 people in cities such as San Francisco, Palo Alto, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and New York, and they’ve been there for hours to days. Using just a little bit of math, the 11 cities I tracked represented 8790 person-hours of line-waiting. With 140 Apple stores nationwide (not even counting AT&T stores, by the way), this represents 7.8% of all stores. A tiny bit of extrapolation later and we have 111872 person-hours spent waiting in line (including Zooomr’s Kris Tate in live video, and the mayor of Philadelphia). The totals:
111872 person-hours.

4661 person-days.

12.77 person-years.

Thanks, Apple!
full list of sources:

iPlan off the target?

Posted on June 26, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

Headline: “AT&T and Apple Announce Simple, Affordable Service Plans for iPhone”

So maybe I’m missing something, but I would think anyone who has a budget for a $599 cell phone probably isn’t so price-sensitive about their service plans. Although I guess all the kids who’ve saved their allowances for it might find it an incentive. I see this type of stuff all the time with my consulting work. Companies who have a great product/technology/service, but don’t seem to focus on the key messaging to actually sell the product/technology/service. I always look to TiVo’s early marketing campaigns as my pseudo-case study.

TiVo launched in 1999 with a huge marketing campaign (rumored above $50 million – huge for a startup!), focused almost exclusively around one key message: pause live TV. I still remember the first time I saw the ads (TV ones too), which, as a TiVo owner, confused the heck out of me. Here’s the thing – it turns out nobody really cares about pausing live TV, it doesn’t make much sense to a non-TiVo person, and even then it’s just a fringe benefit. There are two features that I think TiVo could’ve worked with and gotten much better results:

Instant Replay – “Miss that shot? TiVo puts you in charge of the Instant Replay!”
Season Pass – “No need to manage piles of blank tapes, TiVo’s Season Pass records all of your favorite shows, no hassle required.”

Overall, the iPhone marketing team has done quite a good job. Then again, the iMicrowave, iLunchbox, and iCeramicPotterySet would probably generate just as much buzz too. I just like to keep my eyes out for when companies misalign their target market, their key benefits and value proposition, and their messaging…

iPhone predictions: eBayed at $5000, returns, campouts, and more

Posted on June 15, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

I still don’t quite understand the key motivators that’ll drive iPhone sales, but I do agree that they’ll be selling a boatload. Assuming there’s no big price drop, I don’t see them moving 10 million in year one (nor 45 million in 2009, come on!), but somewhere in the 4-6 million certainly seems right to me in comparison with a worldwide smartphone market of 113 million units this year. Then again, since the experts themselves seem to argue about whether the market is going up or down, who knows how big the market really is?

One thing that’s for sure is there’s a chunk of people with a fever, and that fever can only be cured by one thing: iPhone. They want it, and want it bad. Americans today have a lot more gadget lust than years ago, and are willing to pitch tents, camp out, and overpay for their “gottahaveits”. When the Xbox 360 launched in North America, it sold out within hours, and was on eBay for ridiculous prices. A former coworker of mine managed to get 4 Premium units and sold two for $2500 each, but the record was apparently set at $10,400. Here are a few predictions I’ll make:

They will not have 3 million units ready by June 29th. The lead-times to build such high-quality, customized hardware are probably 8-12 weeks, and they’re probably still wrapping up the final software release now, which doesn’t give them enough QA time to load it on all the devices AND ship them to their distribution centers AND ship them to AT&T stores, all of which is not quite overnight.
Diehards will be seen camping out outside of stores as soon as the 24th. Photos will be taken, put online, and Dugg within hours. Despite a “6pm local time” statement, by the night of the 28th, I predict no fewer than 50% of all locations stocking iPhones will have one camper.
Major metropolitan areas will be sold out within 30 minutes, and few, if any, units will be available by close of business on the 29th. I doubt we’ll see shootings, but there’ll be no fewer than 3 fights on record nationwide. I’ll give a slight outside chance on one AT&T store being vandalized by frustrated customers.
The first wave of public dissatisfied grumpiness will start one week after launch, and steadily increase. There’s so much hype and the expectations are just too high. Don’t get me wrong, this won’t be a bomb like the last time Apple was involved in a phone, but I anticipate backlash. My belief is that human nature shows that people root for the underdog, but turn on a winner, and Apple’s moved into the ‘winner’ camp of late. I do predict that the iPhone will have higher return rates than anything else both Apple and AT&T sell (at present).
Expect heavy eBay gouging for iPhones for the first month. Yes, you’ll need to be in contract, but still, they’re comfortable enough betting on AT&T customers, so there’s nothing to prevent someone from signing up, paying out the cancellation fee (or just transferring service to another phone), then selling out the unit online. Assuming I’m correct about unit shortages for the first week-to-month, I think we’ll see some skyrocketing on eBay, and I’ve polled around some peers for their opinions as well:

Jeremy Toeman: $5000 will be the record price for an iPhone sold on eBay.

Michael Gartenberg (Jupiter analyst): “you’ll see units with an asking price of 3k and more than a few sold at $1,000 or above”

Ryan Block (Engadget Editor-in-Chief): “all bets are off with unlocked [phones]”

Dave Zatz (tech blogger and Sling Media employee): “due to a two year contract, if the price points hold the same for both the new *and* current customers, there won’t be much of an initial aftermarket ”

Veronica Belmont (said whilst prepping her latest CNET podcast): “[I] predict they hit $1200”

Ben Drawbaugh (EngadgetHD writer): “if there wasn’t the 3 million units rumour out there, I would say about 700, but I think there might actually be enough to go around, but I’m not good at predicting these types of things”

Ross Rubin (NPD analyst): “availability is still unknown but, if it approaches the level of consoles during last year’s holiday, I’d guess $2,500 to $3,000.”

Kevin Tofel (Managing Editor, jkOnTheRun): “The new math: how many ebay Wii’s will equal one iPhone. I say three.”

There you have it. We’ll see who’s right and wrong in the coming months. Either way, they’ve done a heck of a job building buzz and hype. Now it’s time for sales.

Still trying to understand iPhone market

Posted on May 30, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

According to Bloomberg…

AT&T Inc. Chief Operating Officer Randall Stephenson said expectations are “too low” for Apple Inc.’s iPhone, which his phone company will start selling next month.

I’ll admit that from all reports the iPhone is going to be one impressive piece of hardware (albeit with some design flaws). But when it comes to understanding it’s market appeal, I look at it the same way I look at a robot that transforms into a building: I don’t get it.

Here’s who won’t buy it (remember, it’s a $499/599 phone, with a locked AT&T plan):

“Business People” – they need their crackberries and their Treos for their mobile email. The iPhone doesn’t have fast (enough) Internet access, doesn’t sync with Outlook, and really isn’t designed as a business device. So with the exception of the wealthy segment who will buy it as a status item, I’m ruling out this market.
“High school kids” – can’t afford it (again, without rich parents). Further, the lack of a 10-key keypad makes it difficult to send SMS messages while in class (teens do more texting than adults really imagine), since you need to look at the screen to do any kind of entry.
“College kids” – really can’t afford it, same problem as with high school kids.
“900,000 of the people on this list” – sure, people want to be on the “tell me when it’s here list” but how many of them will actually pull the trigger? Not so many is my hunch. I’ve been informally sampling friends, colleagues, family, people I’m interviewing for jobs, etc. Sure, everybody’s interested, but there’s another common trends: even those who say they want one don’t seem to want the first generation phone. It’s gonna be buggy, and even bigtime Apple fans recall the somewhat unimpressive gen-1 iPod.

So who’s left?

“Trendy/hipster folks with lots of money to burn” – yup, they’re ALL going to buy it. But there aren’t 10,000,000 of them.

Do I believe Apple has a chance to be a big player in this space? Yes. Over time. But in my opinion, 2008 is going to be a learning year for the company as they move quickly into production on gen-2. My predictions for that unit:

Removable battery
10-key or force-feedback touchscreen
Faster Internet access

I will admit, back in 1997 I was one fellow who didn’t envision PDAs ever needing color screens, so uhh… oops! Let’s see if I get this one right – we’ll check back in 18 or so months to see if I have egg on my face.

Trying "The Best" Bluetooth Headsets

Posted on April 19, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

With the move to the Samsung SCH-u740 phone (still lovin that name!) I’m somewhat forced into the bluetooth headset world. It’s sad, as I absolutely love my Shure headset – hey, I may look like a telemarketer with it on, but it’s super-comfortable, the sound quality is great, and the microphone works in a windstorm. At under $50 (on Amazon), it’s the best bargain around for a wired headset.

The SCH-u740 (say it out loud with me… the “ess see aich you seven forty”) has an adapter that works with analog headsets, but it’s kinda janky to carry it around. So I’m going for Bluetooth. The good news is, I’ve got the what many call “the best” units around to try: the Jabra JX10, Plantronics Voyager 510, and Aliph Jawbone (which came in about the sexiest packaging I’ve ever seen for any gadget, ever).

I’m still in testing, but I’ve learned one thing so far: wearing an in-ear headset for more than 7 hours straight can cause a multi-day lasting earache! I see a lot of people wearing these silly things all day long (psst, if you are in a restaurant and having dinner and wearing a bluetooth headset, you don’t look cool, you look stupid), and I don’t know how they do it. It hurts, and no matter which one makes the cut, you can rest assured it only goes on during a call.

Full review to come, and if you missed out, check out Ron’s report on the Jabra BT620s bluetooth stereo headset from earlier this week.

Differentiating The Two NETGEAR Skypephones

Posted on April 17, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. If there was a country called “Hightechistan” this is it’s capital. There is so much technology innovation surrounding you here it’s effectively impossible to stay ahead of everything going on. While it’s true that much of the innovation is Web-based or infrastructure services (such as the demos at the Web 2.0 Expo being held this week, which you won’t see me blog about any more than this due to them not giving me a press pass. Although I may blog about exactly that once more, we’ll see) there’s also new gadgets and gizmos coming out fairly frequently.

Sometimes, gadget makers seem to build model after model, leaving consumers in a bit of a lurch to determine which one is right for them. In the past two years, NETGEAR’s introduced two different Skypephones, the original (but first) not-so-memorably named SPH101 and this year’s similarly named followup SPH200D model. With my fun role as their “guest blogger” I have had the chance to use both for the past couple of weeks. In an interesting twist, there actually is a reason to have two different models on the market at the same time, as they serve two different purposes! In a nutshell:

If you want a Skype Phone that you can use at home or carry around with you and use WiFi networks, you want the SPH101.
If you want a Skype Phone to use only when at home, and would enjoy the convenience of using only a single handset for both Skype and regular phone services, you want the SPH200D.

Over on the NETGEAR blog (nope, still no RSS), I put up a post that explains the difference between the two models. If you are in the market for a Skype phone and want to know about their units, take a read.

At home, both my wife and I are using the units. She has the DECT phone (which doubles as a home phone as well), and I’m using the Skype-only SPH101 handset. I haven’t really put them through the paces yet, but some quick thoughts and observations:

Pros: easy to use, setup/configuration worked well right out of the box, the handsets feel nice and are lightweight, bright LCD screens, lots of advanced options for geeks like me, sound quality generally good enough

Cons: poor-to-bad battery life, sound quality occasionally dips into unacceptable range

More photos on Flickr. SPH101 on Amazon. SPH200D on Amazon.

Jabra BT620s review: My life in blue

Posted on April 16, 2007 by ron

For most of us, Jeremy’s recent post about the wires in his apartment made us think of a drawer, closet or box somewhere that looks similar (unless you’re Dave Mathews, the other one. I hear his apartment looks like Snakes on a Plane, but with wires … and I guess no plane. So basically, just a lot of wires in an apartment. But you can see how I got there, right?). My wife is a lot less tolerant of ~~snakes~~ wires than Jeremy’s, so I’ve been having fun with a couple of Bluetooth products from Jabra.

The first product I’m trying is the BT620s (with A125s adapter) which enable you to use a wireless headset with your iPod. This means no stylish white-headphones to show off that you stand out from the crowd by having an iPod (which is so 2004 anyway).

In my opinion, the main benefit of having a wireless headset is it frees you from being tethered to the device. Instead, throw your iPod in your backpack or put it in a drawer at your desk. You can still control all the important functions with your headset (volume, skip track, pause, etc.). If you have a bluetooth phone it even lets you pick up a phone call with the same headset (there’s a mini-microphone on one of the earpieces). I’ve been working in a cube-farm for ages and am used to plugging headphones into my computer. In a “Darwin Awards” kind of way, once a year, I pull away from the desk and have the earbuds ripped out of my ears. Going wireless means I can do some Office Space spins in my cube with full freedom. Ah, simple pleasures.

I’d love to say that configuring the units was simple, but I can’t. Jabra optimized towards minimalism in terms of buttons and action-feedback on the unit so much so that you have to actually consult the manual just to get started (I really did. I had to!). For example, they define pushing a button in three ways:

Push and release.
Push for a couple seconds, then release.
Push and hold.

Each one of these causes the blue LED to blink at different rates although it isn’t exactly clear which speed of blinking lights applies to which state. Combine that with multiple buttons combinations and it gets even more confusing. For example, the unit has a blue-blinking LED around each earpiece when the unit is “paired” with the transmitter. When you’re wearing the headset you look like something out of “pimp my ride” and generally get stared at in public (more than normal, I mean). Natch, I wanted to turn this off which meant “Push #3 on left and right center-ear button simultaneously”. Not exactly intuitive considering the many combinations of options of Jabra-Push-Types (see above) and the fact that there are two buttons on the headset and 1 on the A125s iPod unit.

I’ve used the Jabra BT620s headset on planes, trains (Bart) and ~~automobiles~~ buses with great success. The only challenge I’ve found, besides the “Pimp Your Head” glares on the 41 Union, is that when you turn your head the bluetooth cuts out. This is true not only when I put the ipod in my backpack, but even if I have it in my pocket on the right-hand-side (as it says in the manual. See, I told you I read it.). You’re probably asking, “who needs to turn their head.” I know. I live a crazy life. To be clear on this point: it only happens when my iPod is in my pocket, not if it’s on my desk, and the sound does come right back about a half second later if I turn straight again.

Overall I’m very happy with the headset. It frees me from untangling my iPod earphones and I can throw my iPod in my bag and control everything I need without missing a call. It’s not exactly the ideal setup for me personally to use long-term, but I know that my issues don’t necessarily reflect everyone elses.

The only major downside to the vision of wireless is: you don’t really get rid of wires, you just transfer them. Now I have a charger for my adaptor that plugs into my iPod and a charger for the headset. In essence, I’ve reduced the wires I carry around with me, but haven’t solved the wire problem in my apartment. In fact, it made it worse.

Oh, and when writing this, Jeremy asked me to also summarize who is the target market for the BT620s. Here’s my bulleted list:

Those few people that have iPods

As an aside, my prediction is that the next gen of iPods to come out (around the time of iPhone) will have Bluetooth embedded.

Amazon links for BT620s and A125s.

Why I gave up on mobile email, and why you should too

Posted on April 6, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

One of the first posts I ever wrote on this lil ol blog o mine was entitled “Blackberry or Crackberry?” Since that time, I did end up using a Blackberry a few more times, typically when I was traveling overseas and had a loaner phone/email device. Hated it. I hate that little red flashing light. It’s a beckoning sign of evil, coming straight from ~~Google~~ the devil. It causes malice. I’m convinced of that.

Even without the dreaded device (and I guess this is about the right time for me to make a point absurdly clear: the Blackberry is unquestionably the best mobile email device ever made), I still had mobile email through the end of last year, mostly with a Sprint PPC-6700. Also a great device, but the email experience was a lot more mellow than the Blackberry. Maybe it’s because Windows Mobile didn’t implement it quite as well as RIM, I’m not sure. I’ve also tried the Q, the Blackjack, the Dash (love the Dash), the HTC MTeoR (love it too), and others. All good for mobile email. All gone from my life.

I’m 4 months free from my last mobile email, and I don’t know what metric there is to use, but I’m unquestionably happier about it than ever. I’ll tell you something else – I haven’t missed a deadline, opportunity, or any other work-related event as a result. Yes, that’s right – life seems to progress even if my email doesn’t come in 30 seconds after I land at an airport.

With my new Samsung SCH-u740 (can they not come up with a better name for this device?), I have the option to get mobile email activated. I’m not doing it. And its not as if my email flow is that much lower than in the past, it’s just that I’ve consciously chosen I don’t want mobile email in my life. The reason? Mobile email access makes your life worse.

You can call it a quality of life thing. You can call it a digital zen thing. You can label this behavior however you choose, but I can say this with certainty: I don’t know or encounter anyone with mobile email who doesn’t act tethered. Having mobile email means you are giving other people control over how you spend your free time. It doesn’t liberate you from work, that’s really just how people convince themselves to carry the anchor with them.

And don’t just take my word for it…

“With 67 percent of respondents admitting to having used a wireless device to connect to work while on vacation, signs indicated that the American workforce may be facing burnout,” she added.

GPS Lost? Blame it on Space!

Posted on April 5, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

Remember the early 90s and cell phones? Aside from the fact that they weighed ten pounds and you couldn’t even watch TV on them (gosh!), they had a lot more connectivity problems than today. While on an important call, getting disconnected would just, well, happen. You’d roll your eyes to the heavens and yell “damned solar flares!” Well, you might not yell that, unless you were a little imbalanced that is.

Turns out that last December, some mega-humongous solar flare disrupted GPS systems. Now I personally have a Garmin Nuvi 350 (amazon link), and it’s about the best thing on Earth (although my new Xbox 360 is a strong contender, plus it’s 10 higher than the Nuvi), but it’s been wrong before. I once followed it’s step-by-step directions to a Dairy Queen once (love me a Blizzard) and was delivered at someone’s doorstop in a residential neighborhood. He didn’t even give me ice cream!

Another interesting note on GPS is the number of people who seem to use it and ignore all things going on in the real world. Techdirt has a few stories of people driving incredibly long distances when they weren’t actually far away. But that’s more about stupid than it is about technology.

I think I like this solar flare disruption news issue, it opens a whole new set of opportunities…

“Hey Jim, sorry I’m late to the meeting. Darn solar flares screwed up my GPS again, I was halfway to Boise before I noticed!”

JT's New Phone: Samsung SCH-u740

Posted on March 22, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

As I mentioned at my last Geek Dinner, the battery life on my trusty Habs phone (LG VX6100) was steadily dying, despite a brand new battery. I should’ve gotten a replacement a few month ago, but couldn’t really find anything I liked. Here’s the list of what I really care about in a phone:

good battery life
good signal/reception
clear voice use (in other words, people can hear me, and I can hear them)
as small a form factor as I can find
SMS features
some kind of camera (really I’d love 2MP, but it’s about the first thing I’d cut from my list)

That’s it, nothing too fancy. A friend of mine mentioned to me some new “dual-hinge” phone from Samsung, and I sought it out at the local Verizon store this past weekend. I bought one today, and so far, I’m really pleased with it. Actually, as I write this I’m listening to MP3s I loaded onto my 1GB MicroSD card which it’s playing via the speakerphone.

My initial positive reactions:

it’s SMALL
good speakerphone
love the qwerty keyboard
screen is woefully small, but very bright
has a “alarm-only” ringer mode, which I’ve wanted for a long time

The negatives:

still learning the keyboard (it’s small and I’m really used to T9 at this point)
no way to enable/disable/change ringer volume while phone is closed (unbelievable, considering there are 4 buttons available)
hinge might be flimsy, still not sure how it’ll hold up in a year (I expect no less than 2 years of use from a phone)
it’s CHAMPAGNE colored! what the heck? I think it actually comes with a 1978 Cadillac. I’m gonna have to skin-it this thing.

I read a few thoughts and reviews online so far (specifically at Engadget Mobile, CNET), and I’ll share my own after a few more days’ worth of use. I have 14 days to return it, so if anyone’s had a particularly bad experience with this phone, please let me know!

More pictures here.

Skipping Voicemail Greetings: One – Star / Pound

Posted on March 16, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

The answering machine is more than 35 years old, and voicemail’s been around over 25 years. Before I even dig in to the topic I’m writing about, I still get a kick out of messages that start with “Hi, I’m unable to get to the phone, but if you wait for the tone…” Are there really people out there on the other end thinking, “Wow, when did Bob get this magical system that answers the phone when he’s not around? That’s NEAT!” So maybe we can all “jump into the 80s” and tighten up our greetings a tad?

As many people know, most voicemail systems allow the caller to skip over the greeting and jump straight into leaving a message. If you know this, you probably also know that between the 4 major US carriers, there are three completely different voicemail systems. Furthermore, you probably don’t remember which of your friends are on which carrier (unless you only have 2 friends). So even if you do remember than the * key skips for Verizon customers, you get a little hesitant to push it since it goes into “enter PIN” mode for Cingular (er, AT&T?) and you aren’t quite sure if Jimbo is still IN your network or not.

So I’ve got my handy-dandy little system that actually works all the time, and it works like this:

Step One: ~~Get a box.~~ Push 1. If your friend is on Sprint (or possibly Verizon, but not always), this skips the greeting and you are done, skip to End. IF you hear a message that says “One is not a valid option” skip to Step Three below, otherwise continue to Step Two.
Step Two: Push *. If your friend is on Verizon, you’ll hear the beep, and can leave your message. Skip ahead to the end now.
Step Three: Push #. This works for both Cingular and T-Mobile subscribers, and you’re all set to go.
End: Go ahead and leave that message (which, ideally speaking, really only says something like “Hi, it’s Freddy, I’ll be available for that meeting after 2pm, call me back” and not something like “Hello there Gregory, it’s Marjorie Simpson calling you back from the voicemail you left me earlier today. Regarding the meeting, I will be able to join at 2pm, but only for about 45 minutes and then I have to jump onto the call with the guy from Amazon, and that’s gonna go another hour or two, but then I’m freed up again. Also, I did want to let you know that I got your email regarding the shipping confusion, and let me explain to you in detail what I meant…“).

Hope this helps!

ps – By the way, one other little voicemail etiquette thought while I’m at it: if you are leaving your phone number for someone, leave it s-l-o-w-l-y! Assume that while you say the area code they are just fetching a pen. And these damn wrong number dialers. What the hell do we do about them?

Roadmaster Lets you Tell Nearby Drivers how you Really Feel

Posted on February 28, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

Anyone who’s ever been in a car with me driving knows I’m always having two conversations: one with my passenger(s), and the other with other drivers as they cut me off, pass too close, tailgate, or drive a “no sale blue” (a phrase that appears surprisingly absent on the Internet, only good reference here) Oldsmobuick. Unfortunately, it seems that for the most part, these other drivers can’t quite seem to hear me.

I heard today that Roadmaster USA is launching two products that allow scrolling messages to display, either in your rear window or on your license plate. Not only that, it’s a customizable message. Sounds like a product made it heaven!

The products come priced at $69, and come with a mounting kit and a remote control. From reading the manual, it seems that the programming process might be a little clunky (obviously, I’d have it work with USB and a simple PC app), but since the pre-programmed messages are things like “Everybody is entitled to my opinion” and “Holiday Opening Hours”, I think I’d need to spice it up a bit. There’s the obvious “LIVEdigitally” but really, how much fun is that? I think my vocabulary would probably include:

Either “Stop picking your nose.” or “, , was that you?”
“No Vacancy” (I don’t know why, I just think it’d be fun)
“Days since last accident… 002”
“In the time it took you to read this message, shouldn’t you have been watching the road?”

From their Web site, it seems like the units go on sale immediately. Since my wife’s current mode of ‘convergence’ is really about getting rid of extra gadgets, I don’t think I’ll be picking one up myself, but if anyone grabs one, come back and share your thoughts!

I’m also looking forward to a second generation version, in which I’d love to see the company add SMS capabilities so I can update the message in real-time. I’m sure that’d be safe, right?

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