LIVEdigitally

NHL cross-checks MLB with Sling deal

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Important Disclosure: I was born in Montreal, Canada, home of the greatest NHL team of all time as well as the baseball team “that got away” – and yes, I’m bitter.

Sling Media and the NHL just announced (although my friend Om seems to have gotten a bit of an earlier scoop than old JT) that they are working together to enable NHL content within the forthcoming Clip+Sling technology (more from SlingCommunity, refresher details here, beta signup here – don’t know if they are still taking, but it can’t hurt to sign up!).  Now if this were any decade prior to the 90s, I would probably insert nice gloating comments about how much I would use this to show my Habs trouncing their opponents, but, uhm, they, er, kinda, sorta missed the playoffs this year. 

Now granted, NHL’s TV licensing business isn’t quite the same as MLB’s.  Furthermore, this deal isn’t about to change the bottom line for the organization during the 2007-08 season.  But that’s not the point: it’s that they are working with Sling to see what the future holds, not working against them to see how lovely the fresh air was back in the 1970s.  MLB can’t act like the music industry when it comes to Internet distribution, they must make deals with tech companies, experiment, and look to increased revenue through innovation, not lawsuits (refresher on this one here).

While Bettman’s antics over the past 15 years haven’t done much to bring the NHL out of 4th place when it comes to professional sports in the US, he’s certainly enabled his organization to test the waters when it comes to new technology.  It’s not quite enough to excuse him for moving teams to North Carolina and Florida (two of em, in fact), but it’s certainly a step in the right direction.

Disclosure: I’m a former Sling Media employee, but I think the hockey/Canadian disclosure was more important.

Technology is losing its memorabilia

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I’m writing this post while watching an episode of Modern Marvels (History Channel) about 70s tech.  The episode recalls Pong, Speak and Spell, Polaroid cameras, microwaves, LED watches, and other technology nostalgia.  It’s one of those shows that any geek over 30 years old can watch and recall a much simpler era of consumer tech. 

Back in the 70s (and 80s and even 90s to a much lesser degree), consumer technology was its own Wild West.  Computers had numerous operating systems, there were more than 3 consoles on the market, and any innovation was looked upon with wonder. There were no “sure things” and virtually no rules.  It was chaos.  It was also fun.

Part of the fun was the inherent challenge in making technology work.  There was very little software you could just go buy.  You had to put a little of your own energy into the process, even if it just meant typing Load “*”,8,1.  Now after a week of using Vista, I might make the argument that you have to put a lot of time into making it work properly, but that’s a different type of technology chaos.

I think the old challenges of technology contributed to the fond memories many of us have.  Sure I complained about losing a few weeks’ worth of work due to my recent burglary, but it doesn’t compare to the crushing blow of losing the video game I wrote in BASIC on my C64, and saved on a cassette tape!  That was the first moment in which I almost threw a computer out the window – and most certainly not the last.  Fundamentally, it was so much more of an adventure.

Consumer technology today is so spoon-fed.  Sure, there’s some bugginess, and sure, not everything works out of the box – my new Vaio came with the wrong video driver – how pathetic is that?  Sure I have fond memories of some late 90s technology, specifically:

  • my 14 hour TiVo
  • my 16MB Rio MP3 player
  • my 1MP Kodak digital camera
  • my first-gen Toshiba Tecra laptop
  • my first Startac
  • Netscape 1.0 (the browser, not whatever it is now)

But for the most part, it seems like the West is tamed.  I don’t envision people looking back on technology of the 00’s as fondly.  “Wasn’t the RAZR cool?” doesn’t have a big ring to it.  “I sure miss my old Comcast DVR” will probably never be uttered out loud. 

I could be wrong, but I feel like the energy it took to get your old Kaypro working with your Hayes 300 baud modem to connect to some local BBS where you can see the latest in ASCII art is the kind of challenge that doesn’t quite get equalled by using Yahoo Pipes to connect a real-time map with a list of local Dairy Queens so you can launch BlizzardFindr. Which is, of course, a service I’d totally use, just so we’re all clear on that point.

Networks blame DVRs for their bad lineups

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Twice this week I’ve found gems over at the Hollywood Reporter!  Here’s a few excerpts from the latest:

Nielsen Media Research said Thursday that the impact of digital video recorders is a leading cause of why television viewing dropped precipitously this year.

Many of the top shows — from ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” to Fox’s “American Idol” to CBS’ “CSI” — saw their ratings drop in the spring.

I have a personal beef against industries that jump to point their woes on technology (newspapers, have you met MLB? you have a lot in common, I’m sure you’ll be good friends).   It’s just too easy a scapegoat, and there’s not an easy way to defend the tech side.  It’s actually nearly impossible.

For example, I’ll make the opposite claim of Nielsen – I’ll claim that the slip in viewership is due to quality (and maybe a bit of the ol buyshifting – hey, I can plug my own work, can’t I?).  Now I’m not exactly sure when it happened, but over the course of 06/07, the quality of TV went from what seemed like an awesome lineup into a big old snoozefest.  I think it’s just too many years of investigating crime scenes, grizzly murders, and serial killers; too many years of mediocre singers trying to get their 15 minutes; I suggest that audiences are getting tired of it.

But, just like Nielsen, I can’t prove it.  I don’t even have hard data like them, but I know enough about the “technology” in use to accept that they can’t prove it either.  The music industry is suffering as well, but frankly they’ve spent the better part of 10 years making as many wrong decisions as possible.  And they blamed the tech the whole way down the slide.  My advice to the TV folks: look inward for problems before being so quick to point fingers outwards.

How I got back in business (with a new PC) in under 2 hours

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Last night I did my laptop research, narrowed down to:

  • Thinkpad T61 or X60
  • Mac
  • Vaio VGN-SZ460N

However tempted I was (and I was) to go Mac, I realized I just don’t have the energy to learn something new right now.  Maybe as a 2nd computer to have some fun with, but not as my primary. 

I went with the Vaio over the Thinkpad because:

  • 13″ screen and less than 4 pounds.
  • Already have Vaio docking station, extra battery, extra power charger.
  • Thinkpad T61 is big and heavy, X60 is too small.
  • Vaio has superior displays.
  • I really liked my last one, had none of the problems I hear others complaining about, figured I’d try it again.
  • I could walk into the Sony Style store and be done with it in minutes.

Came preinstalled with Vista Business (read this post for my feelings on the Vista Edition nonsense), which seems to mean “no solitaire” as far as I can tell.  It’s still amazing that Sony can’t even touch Apple when it comes to OOBE (out of box experience, pronounced ooh-bee) – during the first-time setup I sat watching it try to figure out the “right” display settings to use.  How come this isn’t pre-configured?  Sony knows the settings…  silly.

Next two hours spent:

  • Downloading backup documents off my Drobo (3 weeks since last backup – not too irresponsible I guess)
  • Downloading backup photos (also from Drobo, although I have a more recent photo backup on my Maxtor NAS at home)
  • Getting online with office network 
  • Activating Office 2007
  • Twittering something 
  • Uninstalling miscellaneous Sony crapware (by the way, does anyone know why Visual C++ and SQL server are pre-installed?  do I need them for Vista??)
  • Downloading Plaxo toolbar for Outlook – all contacts/calendar restored
  • Activating Outlook email – downloaded past 10 days email from server backup
  • Installing AIM (classic, not Triton) and MSN Messenger
  • Customizing Vista power and other settings

Overall experience was pretty good.  I have no real complaints about Vista other than it is a lot clunkier than it should be – what I mean is there’s no good reason for the clunkiness.  Also, I think this new Vaio has an ever better screen than my last one, but I might be dramatizing it a bit.  I don’t quite understand the inclusion of Cingular/AT&T Edge networking for $59/mo (compared to Verizon/Sprint EVDO Rev-A for $50/$20 respectively), couldn’t they have at least upgraded to HSDPA? 

What did I learn from this?

  • Thankfully I backup frequently, although clearly not often nor thoroughly enough.  My real data loss was the past 2 weeks of docs I’ve created and hadn’t shared, as well as tons of emails.  I really relied on the combo of Outlook and Google Desktop Search as my mechanisms for archiving & finding stuff.  I should’ve backed up my Outlook PST file and I think GDS should include an offline backup feature as well.
  • Using offline email and Plaxo is mandatory – I restored my entire contact and calendar database in minutes, and it was free.  Granted, if your company has Exchange server or you use Gmail, this is likely unnecessary, but there was nothing else that can replicate this experience.
  • Thieves suck, renters insurance rules.  I use Allstate, and they are moving fast and super-helpful to get me rolling again.

Burglarized Office!

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Went out to have a coffee (read: beer) with a couple of office-mates today. 

Returned to my office, found my laptop, tablet PC, and digital camera were all stolen.

There were other people in the office at the time.

Watched the building’s security video, the thief left the building 1 minute before I returned.

Cops are skeptical about finding it.

This sucks.

The only saving grace is I had just backed up all my photos yesterday, and most of my other files about 2 weeks ago.

Cops said not to even bother calling pawn shops looking for it, as it’s likely being sold for about $100 to some “organization” that sends them overseas.

Did I mention this sucks?

Will probably get a new one tomorrow (any recommendations? please comment if so) – thanks to my Plaxo and my Drobo, I should be back up and running within 48 hours.

Sucks.

Still trying to understand iPhone market

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According to Bloomberg…

AT&T Inc. Chief Operating Officer Randall Stephenson said expectations are “too low” for Apple Inc.’s iPhone, which his phone company will start selling next month.

I’ll admit that from all reports the iPhone is going to be one impressive piece of hardware (albeit with some design flaws).  But when it comes to understanding it’s market appeal, I look at it the same way I look at a robot that transforms into a building: I don’t get it.

Here’s who won’t buy it (remember, it’s a $499/599 phone, with a locked AT&T plan):

  • “Business People” – they need their crackberries and their Treos for their mobile email.  The iPhone doesn’t have fast (enough) Internet access, doesn’t sync with Outlook, and really isn’t designed as a business device.  So with the exception of the wealthy segment who will buy it as a status item, I’m ruling out this market.
  • “High school kids” – can’t afford it (again, without rich parents).  Further, the lack of a 10-key keypad makes it difficult to send SMS messages while in class (teens do more texting than adults really imagine), since you need to look at the screen to do any kind of entry.
  • “College kids” – really can’t afford it, same problem as with high school kids.
  • “900,000 of the people on this list” – sure, people want to be on the “tell me when it’s here list” but how many of them will actually pull the trigger?  Not so many is my hunch.  I’ve been informally sampling friends, colleagues, family, people I’m interviewing for jobs, etc.  Sure, everybody’s interested, but there’s another common trends: even those who say they want one don’t seem to want the first generation phone.  It’s gonna be buggy, and even bigtime Apple fans recall the somewhat unimpressive gen-1 iPod.

So who’s left?

  • “Trendy/hipster folks with lots of money to burn” – yup, they’re ALL going to buy it.  But there aren’t 10,000,000 of them. 

Do I believe Apple has a chance to be a big player in this space? Yes.  Over time.  But in my opinion, 2008 is going to be a learning year for the company as they move quickly into production on gen-2.  My predictions for that unit:

  • Removable battery
  • 10-key or force-feedback touchscreen
  • Faster Internet access

I will admit, back in 1997 I was one fellow who didn’t envision PDAs ever needing color screens, so uhh… oops!  Let’s see if I get this one right – we’ll check back in 18 or so months to see if I have egg on my face. 

See you at Lunch two point oh today

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In case you missed it on my guest blog post, NETGEAR is hosting a “Lunch 2.0” event today.  I’m heading down there in my new used car (thank you AutoTrader.com), though on 2.0 hours of sleep (thank you baby), so if I babble incoherently, I apologize in advance.  If you haven’t signed up, details are here (there are some pre-reqs, so read up before you just drive on down!), and I hope to see you there.  I know the company is excited to meet a lot of “new tech folks” and show off the latest networking equipment.  They’ll also be touring the new & improved (as opposed to old & inferior) Digital Lifestyle Room, and giving away an extreme network makeover to some lucky winner.

ps – if you can’t make it today, don’t forget to mark down June 28th in your calendar for the upcoming Under the Radar (one point oh) event, where I’m participating as a judge (no wig).  If your company fits the profile and wants in, shoot me an email – no guarantees on results, but I will pass the information along to the right people.  I’ll blog more about this event soon!

MLB Gets All Silly Over Placeshifting

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Disclosure: I am a former employee of Sling Media.

I thought it made sense to get that out of the way up front.  Was just reading an article at Ars regarding MLB’s latest feelings about that Slingbox company (nothing reflects better on someone who can’t even deign to get a company name right when quoted):

“Of course, what they are doing is not legal,” MLB general counsel Michael Mellis told The Hollywood Reporter Esq. “We and other leagues have formed a group to study the issue and plan our response. A lot depends on ongoing discussions. Plus, there’s no guarantee that Slingbox will be around next year. It’s a startup.”

I must say I enjoy picking apart quotes when given the opportunity.  And that opportunity is now.

“Of course, what they are doing is not legal” – if it were “of course” why would they need to …

“We and other leagues have formed a group to study the issue and plan our response” – shouldn’t it be obvious?  Maybe it’s not so “not legal” as he said up front?  Maybe??  Probably.

Additional Disclosure: I am not a lawyer.

“A lot depends on ongoing discussions” – good, that’s always good.  I wonder who’s in those discussions?

“Plus, there’s no guarantee that Slingbox will be around next year” – actually, unless the boxes are going to spontaneously combust in 2008, there is every guarantee they will be around next year.  Unless he meant the company, I guess, in which case it’s just as fair to say there’s no guarantee that MLB will be around next year, they might just go on strike, again.  Okay, I must admit I’m particularly bitter because I am a Montrealer, and lost my Expos to the insane greed propagated by MLB and the owners, particularly G.S. of N.Y. Washington.

“It’s a startup” – well, if it’s just a startup, and not even guaranteed to be around next year, then why get all fussy about it anyway?

Still more disclosure: I get all bent out of shape when I read such inanity.  So much so that I use words like inanity without even verifying if they are real words.

Also from the article:

At last year’s Digital Media Summit, MLB VP George Kliavkoff said that a San Francisco Giants fan visiting Chicago and watching a Giants game via his Slingbox is “stealing” from whatever Chicago cable operator has the rights to carry the game in the Windy City.

This is a very interesting point, one in which MLB has fairly, well, dead-wrong.  See, when I’m visiting Chicago, the local cable operator doesn’t really give much thought to me.  Hotel room TVs aren’t counted for local advertising.  So the provider there really ignores me.  On the other hand, my local SF affiliate loves counting my eyeballs every time they can (not mine specifically per se, although almost mine). 

I guess the part I most don’t understand is why they get quite so ridiculous about it.  It reminds me of Hollywood starting out all anti-VCR, which turned out to be one of the most profitable avenues the studios ever saw.  MLB’s response to placeshifting shouldn’t be to call in the lawyers and cry foul.  I’d like to see them, as they say, “man up” about this.  They should either:

  • COMPETE with Sling – Provide an alternative solution that is more compelling than a Slingbox
  • PARTNER with Sling – Find a way to leverage the Slingbox to generate additional revenue or business opportunities

MLB is a multi-billion dollar organization. Yup, that was with a “B”.  Sling’s raised a total of about $57 million.  Calling in lawyers to deal with this is like me calling Terminix to kill a spider in my house. 

Final disclosure: I do not work for Terminix.

Inanity!

Exclusive Pix+Vid: New NETGEAR Skype Wifi Phone

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As I’ve written before, (guest) blogging has its privileges.  While at NETGEAR’s HQ last week interviewing employees for the blog, the company’s CEO, Patrick Lo, walked in and pulled from his pocket the still-in-development 2nd-generation WiFi Skype Phone!

IMG_4031 patrick lo holding new netgear skype phoneIMG_4030 new netgear skype phoneIMG_4027 netgear skype phonesIMG_4028 netgear skype phonesIMG_4029 netgear skype phones

This was quite unexpected, at the time I was getting a tour of the recently “remodeled” NETGEAR Digital Lifestyle Room from David Henry. Watch what happens at the end:

As I was scheduled to meet with Patrick after the tour, I did get him to spend a few minutes talking about the phone. As you’ll hear, there are no announced details at the time. He did spend another couple of minutes on the topic, but I’ll save that for the full interview with him, which you’ll find on the NETGEAR blog in the next few weeks. But here’s an excerpt to whet the appetite:

Whilst on the topic (yep, I said whilst), I also received confirmation from the company that the existing first-generation phone now supports T-Mobile service, which means you can use it in a Starbucks! As long as it doesn’t make it onto the planes, looks like mobile Skype is getting better and better.

Thanks for the scoop, Patrick!

HP helping to increase HDTV FUD

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History has shown that when it comes to technology, the fastest method to hamper consumer adoption is to have FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).  In my limited lifespan, this dates back to the VHS-Betamax duel back in the 80s, and continues today in the BluRay-HD battles.  Nobody wants to buy the wrong thing, and consumers will often sit around and wait for a victor to emerge.

HP, a company I’ve liked over the years (and one where I have a lot of friends), decided that they wanted to get involved and, for lack of a more perfect phrase, screw with the HDTV industry by using the term “HDTV 2.0”. Shame on you, HP, for such an ill-timed, inappropriate, and unnecessary move.

Consumers today have enough trouble differentiating between 720p, 1080i, and 1080p when they try to buy a set (answer: the first two are effectively the same, 1080p is the ‘better one’ that you should be looking for if you are spending more than about $1500 on a set). 

They have enough issues trying to figure out if they should buy an upscaling DVD player or an actual high-definition player (answer: unless you have a very good set, you probably won’t really notice the difference, plus I wouldn’t buy until the format is settled). 

They have to figure out if they should buy DVI or HDMI or component cables (answer: it’s gotta be HDMI, no debate here), and once they’ve picked, have to then assess how much to spend on those cables (answer: now that I’ve learned a bit more about the cabling and the future of HD, if you are looking at a long-term investment in your HD setup, buy the expensive cables, there will be a difference).

Shame on you, HP. It’s not like a debate on what Web 2.0 (or 3.0) really is, where end-users can happily ignore the topic and just enjoy trying out cool new Web sites/services as they launch.  For a marketing organization to intentionally go out and cause additional FUD in an already confusing space is pure and simple a bad move.  Your job is to answer questions, not create them, and your job is to grow the overall pie, not try to cut out some small piece with such short-term thinking.  

Shame on you, HP!

The Internet in 2007: just as bad as in 1997!

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Let’s take a trip down memory lane, shall we?  There was a time when you’d send off an email, and not have complete confidence it would reach it’s destination properly intact.  Web site developers/managers used to have to build multiple versions of their sites just to make sure the presentation was as desired.  Also, you may recall hearing about some new cool Internet company, but by the time you got home, can’t recall it’s somewhat goofy name.  Quick check, is it 10 years ago, or yesterday?

I really can’t believe how bad the state of email is.  There’s so much anti-spam safeguards in place that it’s now “the norm” to see an email from a very trusted source sitting in the junk box, or worse yet, killed by the ISP.  This problem is exacerbated for people like myself who have independent domain names, which inevitably get taken over by automatic spam “bots”.  I use the mass-BCC trick for sending my geek dinner emails, and each month one or two people send me a note telling me it got stuck in the trash.  It is absolutely pathetic that there is no way to guarantee emails between trusted relationships.  Shame on everyone from Barracuda to Microsoft to Google for not having a solution in place, or even on the horizon.  I especially don’t understand the 28 percent of users who say “spam is not a problem” in their worlds!

Next up: Web browsers.  There’s no doubt that Internet Explorer versions 4, 5, and 6’s near-complete dominance of the browser market had its down side.  But other than lackluster performance and a weak, outdated feature set, I’m not sure what it was.  The Web, for lack of a better phrase, just worked!  Now we have IE6 and 7 on the market, we have Safari (terrible), and Firefox, all with a distributed share of users.  Sure this sounds good – Democracy In Action, yay! – but all I know is I see more and more Web sites broken for one or more browsers, all the time.  I don’t know exactly whose fault it is, but at least when Microsoft ran the show building Web sites was straightforward and reliable.

Okay, that’s enough ranting for the day, but seriously – why are we (we being the technology industry as a whole) allowing the basics to drop into such a deplorable state?  Maybe we need a little less attention on the AJAX and Wikis, and a little more on the things that impact core productivity.  It’s analogous to the cell phone industry, building really pretty-looking phones that can capture and stream TV-quality video, but still drop calls and have terrible battery life. 

But I do have hope that by 2017 it’ll be a little better.  Not much, mind you, but a little.

The Next 8 Companies Microsoft Should Buy

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After last week’s $6 billion offer to buy aQuantive, I’ve been thinking a lot about Microsoft and its future.  See, the company has about $25 buh-illion in cash (after this acquisition!), and they seem to be, well, sitting on it.  And that’s not exactly the best return to shareholders by a company that’s supposed to be the visionaries of computing.  So it’s either time to issue a whole bunch of dividends, or else they need to really look to the future, spend some of that money, and help reinvent themselves as a competitive player for years to come.

I really enjoyed reading Thomas Hawk’s piece on turning MS around, and I agree with John Furrier that the company needs new blood.  I think the best move they can make is a sweeping series of acquisitions (one of the few times I disagree with my friend Michael Gartenberg).  Some big players that can bolster the company’s lineup, and some small players to bring a new generation of innovation into an increasingly stale-minded shop.  Frankly, with the exception of Windows Mobile, Xbox, and some (and not all) of the Vista folks, it seems like all the really creative folks have jumped ship.  So, here’s the list of companies (8, not 10, because I’m bored of top-10 lists) I think would help bring the right balance of creativity, ingenuinity, technology, talent, and in some cases – straight revenue:

  1. WordPress/Akismet/Automattic – This is the biggest no-brainer acquisition in my list.  With over a million blogs served, the company is the hands-down leader in enabling blogging.  Whereas MSN Spaces Live is the hands-down leader in… well, I have no idea.  WordPress as a software package is the most powerful and yet easiest-to-use.  WordPress as a hosted service is simple and elegant and professional.  Akismet is one of the best spam filters I’ve seen (I’ll bet it could even help make Exchange server work better!).  This acquisition would be one of those ‘intangibles’ the company should make – I don’t know if Automattic makes money or not, but this is a strategic bet, and in my eyes, it’s an easy one.
  2. Netflix (market cap: 1.5B) – While not an obvious choice, Netflix is a nice strategic bet for Microsoft. We all know that shipping discs around the country from distribution centers is not the game that MS wants to be in, but I’m not sure it’s the game that Reed and the Netflix crew want to be in either. Long term, with Netflix, what you’re buying is the customer information, the hollywood relationships and the interface. The company should have 7.5 million subscribers this year, all of whom are helping feed the machine information about their preferences. It’s one of the greatest collaborative filtering engines and quite accurately predicts what movies you would like to watch with great functionality linking friends. They also have the relationships with Hollywood to deliver platters of bits to your house as you select them from their interface which becomes its own mini-portal to content. As they move away from physical to digital distribution they are a great fit for Microsoft’s online properties and XBOX platform. Just imagine combining the Netflix queue with Xbox Live Marketplace, where the right movies are presented to you based on your Netflix account and are automatically delivered to the Xbox hard drive, or taken portable on your Zune (okay, the Zune part is a maybe, but I had to throw it in there).  Also a good preemptive move against Google doing the same thing (as Google is still terrible at working with Hollywood and would love the collaborative filtering stuff for more ads).
  3. HTC – Unless you are an Engadget junkie, you might not have ever heard of HTC.  Well, they are the not-so-little Taiwanese manufacturer that not only could, but does.  They make all the hottest Windows Mobile phones, and typically contribute technology to some of the ones they don’t make.  Their devices are setting the standard in innovative mobile platforms (yes, more so than the iPhone in my opinion).  My reasoning for the acquisition here is for Microsoft to take some control over their destiny.  It’s time the company acted a little more Apple-like in more of their hardware, just like they do with Xbox and Zune.  Also, HTC has quietly attracted some of the top talent in the mobile space, so the company gains a cache of clever folks instantly.  Now there’s a bit of a twist here, as I think MS should also spin out Microsoft Hardware (aka Microhard?), a division focused on taking their own software platforms “to the extreme”. 
  4. Asus – The second hardware company on my list is here for the exact same reason as HTC.  I’d love to see MS Hardware building stylish laptops that truly leverage all of the new technologies the company builds.  Sure, there’s the potential this would lead to ‘evil’ since Asus’ motherboards are used in numerous manufacturers’ computers today.  But think about it, that’s already a case of customer/competitor it would just be upping the ante a little. 
  5. 37signals – I put this on the list with reservations (maybe it needs an asterisk or something).  I use BaseCamp to manage some client work, and it’s really not the most impressive software I’ve seen (despite the ridiculous lauding I continue to read).  But they are onto something, and when I compare it to the unbelievable bloatware that is MS Project, I can’t help but think there’s something to be done here.  Marry these two teams together, and let’s see the offspring in a year or so – I have a hunch it’d be good.  Also, rumor has it they’re profitable, which is a nice touch in 2.0-land.  If nothing else comes of it, they have a pretty popular blog too…
  6. Salesforce.com (market cap: $5.4B) – Microsoft is a software company. While Salesforce’s pitch is “No Software” in essence any patent describing them would use the definition software; it’s just that the software is hosted. As Microsoft is going to adapt to a world of subscribers and services as Ray Ozzie puts it in his memo “The Internet Services Disruption“, Salesforce is a great fit. Microsoft never truly nailed the ERP space and can use the combined entity against their mutual rival, Oracle. Microsoft could integrate CRM applications into their hosted versions of Office. Web Outlook, Mail and/or Messaging and Salesforce are a solid fit, and Microsoft’s Live functionality could be weaved in to Salesforce’s app’s. This is also a block against Google who is planning on doing exactly this…
  7. Ingenio – Again, a move to cut off Google, buying Ingenio slots in really well with their recent TellMe acquisition.  I don’t know how much bigger the online ad space is growing, but I do believe it’s pretty obvious that the opportunities in both Mobile and Voice are huge.  Ebay wants to use Skype to sell advice, but they spent too much money on the company and are finding quickly how much work there is to efficiently offer such a service (hint: it’s a lot).  Ingenio is one of those Bay Area startups that doesn’t come up in conversation all that often, but they are already providing services to MSN, AOL, AT&T, and a host of others, and guess what – they’re profitable.  I don’t know how much this one would go for, but if MSFT is serious about getting into advertising (I did mention the $6B for aQuantive, right?), they should look to expand the concept horizontally while they still have the chance to get out in front of the pack on it.  As an added bonus, the company is even built on top of MS technologies.
  8. Facebook (estimated valuation: $1-2B and up) – Well Microsoft is already giving Facebook $900 million (over 3 years), what’s a few $100 million amongst friends? I’m not sure that Mark Z. would sell to Redmond because he may not “feel like it” (plus they’re so old over there), but I think Microsoft needs to make itself relevant to the next generation (i.e., make him an offer he can’t refuse). If your online identity is with Facebook, then the services you use may naturally follow. Integrated IM. Mail. Video Posts. Blogs. All are natural extensions of your identity (all are things being done oh-so-poorly by the MSN group). Facebook isn’t just an advertising play, it also can help “sell” software by weaving Microsoft’s services into the Facebook platform. Oh, and by the way, it’s a pretty good advertising play. Rumor is that Facebook is signing up 1,000,000 members a week. Yeah, week. Yikes. Comscore and Hitwise have it outpacing their much more mature (57 million members) predecessor, MySpace.

Sure some of these might sound a bit controversial, and some might not make sense to everyone.  But Microsoft needs to start thinking a little different, so to speak, and some radical acquisitions are one way to start that process.  Fundamentally, I feel Microsoft is still waiting to enter the 21st century.  All I have to say is: come on in guys, the water’s fine!

Disclosure: I do not work for any of these companies, nor Microsoft.  I do own about $500 worth of MSFT stock as the last vestige of an E*trade account I set up back in 1999 and haven’t touched since.  Oh, and I have a few friends at MS and some of these startups, and I guess if they ever make it rich and it was my fault they owe me a big fat steak dinner.