LIVEdigitally

I've got MacBook buyer's paralysis

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Back when I decided my Sony Vaio was slightly less useful than the OLPC I have (and not nearly as plastic-y), I “experimented” by buying a MacBook. I bought the bottom of the line model for $1099. A few weeks later I upgraded the RAM for another $99. First lesson: don’t buy the bottom of the line model, the one slightly above it is a significantly better deal.

Now I’m short on hard drive space (it comes with an 80GB unit), albeit some of it would free up if I deleted seasons 1-3 of Arrested Development from the disk. Some find it easy to upgrade the drive, I am a little nervous about that. I’d like to move to Leopard and get Boot Camp running too, but really don’t want any down time, nor do I feel investing another $129 in this computer makes sense.

I could just buy a MacBook Pro and probably be happy with it. The problem is I foresee one or two MB revisions from Apple in the next 60-120 days (they’ve done it before people!). The MBPro is ripe for a quick rev, like adding the gesturelike functionality from the Air (UPDATE: I told you so). I have to say, this was my only real MacWorld disappointment, I was really hoping for a thinner/lighter MBPro.

After a week’s consideration, I’ve decided the Air is not the right laptop for me. It’s slightly less powerful than the regular MB, and the ubersexiness of it isn’t enough. I’m too cheap frugal to buy it for vanity reasons alone at $1799. By the way, I would not be surprised to see a new Air (or two or three) with a wider price range soon. I’ll quickly predict that within 120 days the current one drops to $1599, they swap up to a 160GB drive in the $1799 one, and bump the processor speed for a $2199ish one.

So anyone have any triggers to help break me out of my paralysis? Splurge on the Pro today, or proceed with continued caution?

Xbox Live Needs a Seniors League (30+)

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I was playing Call of Duty 4 (COD4) last weekend during my post-CES recovery time, aka 12 hours of Xbox intermixed with buffalo wings and an hour of hockey. When I first went online to play, I pretty well expected to get a whuppin’, and a whuppin’ I received. That evening I played with my 12-year-old cousin in Montreal 1v1, and he steadily handed my ass to me over and over again. I think Xbox Live needs a “Seniors League” for people over 30.

First, the league would allow you to opt-out, so for the hardcore gamers, you can go play with whomever you like. But for the rest of us, I think it’d be a very good system. It would allow me to stop listening to the utter depravity that occurs in the chatroom (more foul, disgusting, racy language I have never heard in such a short time). Actually, on that topic for a second, parents – hello, your teenage children need some attention and by attention I don’t just mean warm hugs and telling them how they’re so great all the time.

More importantly, it might give me a way to play the game with the other stumbling buffoons like me. Those of us who are pleasantly surprised when we actually get a good shot off or two, where a dominating streak is defined as two consecutive kills, and where we don’t spend half the game looking at the Xbox controller wondering just how on Earth that guy did that!?!?!

The one game that probably doesn’t need the Seniors League is Rock Band, whose online multiplayer is about the coolest thing I’ve seen. It’s the only game I’m aware of that has no competition, nothing but fun/pride. And let me tell you, when four people are playing together, and really “jamming” (real musicians: don’t hate us, we’re just having fun), it’s a good time. Hitting star power on a song together? Priceless.

If the Senior League is too much to figure out, how about just a Rookie Zone, which works on a game-by-game basis? After anyone reaches a certain score and/or hours playing, they get bumped into the regular area. If you need an incentive, I’m pretty confident that you’d sell more games. Huh? Listening now, I see? Well, go ask your prime gamer demographic (oh wait, that’s me!) about their Xbox Live experiences. Probably a lot of frustration across the board. As a terrible player, playing online is often too annoying, rarely as fun as it should be. More fun = more Xbox Live time = more Xbox time = more interest in new games = more money for MSFT.

Oh, and to the jerk who marked me as ‘unsportsmanlike’ I’m gonna guess this refers to my frequent accidental grenading of my own teammates. Maybe if you spent more time playing as a team and helping us old fogies out, we’d play better and stop doing it. I’m just too terrible to even play unsportsmanlike! You’ll understand in 20 years, kid.

Any NAS recommendations?

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My Maxtor Shared Storage is starting to die, so I’m looking into a new NAS solution (mom, NAS stands for networked attached storage, and it’s basically like computer memory except attached to the network.  it’s not actually computer memory at all, but that’s not important right now).  I have an Infrant ReadyNAS NV+ I use at work, and while I think it’s a great device, it’s a little too loud for my home.  I’m considering the DroboShare option as well, except I use that at the office too and feel that it plus the drives is more than I want to spend right now for a second unit (disclosure: I have consulted for Drobo in the past).

Here are my needs:

  • No software install required for use
  • Mac and Windows support
  • Browser-based configuration
  • 500+ GB HDD
  • Power save mode – I don’t want the drives spinning 24/7 for both conservation and longevity purposes
  • UPnP support – must be able to stream to my Sonos, preferably to my Xbox 360 as well
  • Quiet – it’s going to be out in the open somewhat, I’d rather not have to hear it at all
  • Automated backup – optional, I don’t mind doing this manually

My Shared Storage does all of the above, but from user reviews on Amazon, the modern replacements seem to get terrible writeups.  I haven’t really researched it, but I assume I cannot simply swap out the drive (I will definitely check into this more as well).

The two I’ve found so far that seem to be the best fit are the Iomega 33455 and the Buffalo LS500GL LinkStation Pro.  CNET doesn’t seem to have any clear winners in the category, so that wasn’t much added info.  I tried retail, but Best Buy barely stocks any (there was ONE unit in the local store), CompUSA is busy selling the shelving of their fail, and I am just scared of OfficeMax.  Anyone have any input/recommendations?

ps – per a great conversation I had with Robert Scoble and Rafe Needleman tonight, I’m going to try to write a daily post with no influence from TechMeme whatsoever.  It’s not to say I won’t chime in on some widely discussed topics, but I think I had more satisfaction from the ol’ days.  But that could also be some early senility setting in.  This post counts.

Coming Up For Air?

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Had a fun morning keeping up with the Apple keynote from afar (though Mathew Ingram’s take on it was one of my favorites). I don’t really care that much about the online movie rentals topic, I’m sure others have that one cold. I don’t think Apple TV 2 (point oh!) will do much better than the dot-com version (what was with the madhouse cheering when he announced it had surround sound? hello, 1992 called, it wants it’s sound technology back). People just don’t want another box that has roughly the same content as their cable box. I think they should’ve put a Blu-Ray drive in it, then allowed it to do the “virtual drive” thingy (so smart!) back to the Air. Or at least have a Blu-Ray version. People would buy an iBluRay Steve, I promise. Then again, we’ll buy iDoggiePoop too…

Onto the Air. Wow. It’s well done, I must say (and far from useless, but nice linkbaiting there Devin!). Here’s my quick take on it, without having used one personally, starting from the dislikes to the likes:

TERRIBLE: 80GB hard drive? Seriously? Is that a joke? It’s one thing on my rapidly-getting-outdated MacBook, but in the newest of the new, it’s too small. My only hope is this is due to excess inventory from iPods, and they’ll bump it up to the 160GB version soon. And I’m not even going to address the 64GB SSD option, as $3K is out of the question in my eyes.

BAD: micro-DVI (mini-DVI was bad enough, come on!), no removable battery (but as a friend observed, I don’t have a spare battery for my MacBook either – I just hate not even having the option), lack of ExpressCard or built-in EVDO (that AT&T deal isn’t really paying off in this regards), price (it’s not outrageous, but it’s steep for what you truly get).

AVERAGE: expandability (I know there’s only one USB, but with a Bluetooth mouse, I think it’s fine), no optical drive (I just don’t think it really matters that much anymore, but I might be a little optimistically naive. That said, Apple did take the first step to kill the 3.5″ floppy…), missing Ethernet (ditto)

GOOD: screen, iSight, battery life (5 hours promised is like a *real* 3.5 hours, which is perfect).

GREAT: size (duh), weight, keyboard, touchpad (I knew they’d extend the gestures beyond the iPhone).  It might look like the “great” list is much shorter than the bad ones, but I felt those needed more explanation!

All in all, this is a very very impressive laptop. I believe CEOs, marketing execs, and traveling salespeople all across the country are buying it. I don’t agree with conjecture that it’ll cannibalize existing MacBook (or Pro) sales, I feel this is yet another arsenal in the Apple inventory as they slowly climb in laptop market share. Remember – the future of computer sales is all about laptops, and the more they offer in that category, the better that future looks.

As for will I buy one? Decent odds. If the HDD was 160GB I’d be a lot closer (for the record, I have a MacBook with an 80GB hard drive that is constantly full). I feel like it’s a step up, but not a big one, from what I have today. The biggest thing that is holding me back is the concern that they’ll end up revving the MacBook Pros with the new screen and touchpad in the coming months and I’ll have buyer’s remorse about it. I’m on the verge of the pre-order right now, will probably decide in the next 48 hours or so.

Full disclosure: I became an Apple shareholder today.

So… Macworld's tomorrow…

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I’d like to see a new MacBook Pro. The MacBook I have works just fine, but the hard drive is small, it’s heavy, and frankly, it gets really dirty really fast (and I use enough baby wipes on my 8 month old, thank you very much). There’s lots of rumors and speculation. I previously conjectured on what I called a “MacBook Touch“, and while I want it, I have to say it seems a lot less likely (despite continuous rumors).

I also don’t think they’re doing WiMax, unless AT&T is about to announce WiMax, which I doubt. It’s just a big gamble on a very big tech that is way too “out there” in my eyes. Jobs makes amazing products, and makes some big bets along the way, but this one seems illogical. So if “MacBook Air” really means something, my guess is it’s either (a) a very lightweight laptop or (b) a laptop with AT&T Edge services built-in.

But remember – “something in the air” could just as easily refer to direct-to-iPhone movie rentals…

Mark Evans is waiting for the iPhone “A” edition. Wait for it… Wait for it… No? Don’t have it? It’s the iPhone, eh? Hahahaha. Sorry, but I’m Canadian, I can do those things.

I won’t get to go to the keynote, although I may lurk around the Moscone with Robert and Patrick Scoble. Maybe we should sit in the Apple store and follow Engadget’s live coverage? I guess the other alternative is to chill in the Irish pub around the corner and play CrunchGear’s Steve Jobs Keynote Drinking Game.

No question that January is the most fun gadget month of the year.

CES 2008: the highs and lows

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Trying to “keep it fresh” (or is that “keep it real”?), I’m doing my show recap with a slightly different format. Here are my highs and lows of the show:

ProudHIGH: Unquestionably, winning the Best of Show award with Bug Labs this year. All in all Bug Labs (whom I work with) had a phenomenal CES, which I’ll blog about over at the Stage Two blog in the next couple of days.

LOW: Panasonic’s 150 inch plasma. I’m probably going to end up buying a Panny plasma this year anyway, but I couldn’t help but shake my head with dismay at this screen (although it’s certainly using some impressive technology, I definitely give them credit for that). It’s just ridiculous from every perspective, and the utter waste in even creating the thing is astounding to me. Especially in light of…

HIGH: Philips’ eco-friendly plasma TV. Of all things to lose the Overall best in show award to, this was my pick. Good for them to set a good example for the CE industry. Hopefully this is the beginning of a big trend, as plasmas are about as non-green a gadget you can possibly buy.

LOW: No major new innovations. While I wasn’t following the news as well as I’d have liked, it seemed like CES ’08 was really about bigger (or thinner), faster, better, etc. No major new formats/platforms/technologies announced (other than Tru2Way, the terribly named tech that will probably be only minorly more successful than CableCard), no really new innovative device unveiled, just more of the same old, same old. Also, I (and others) think the show is just too darn big now.

Scoble watches Gates keynote at the BloghausHIGH: Watching the Bill Gates keynote AT the BlogHaus. I didn’t make it last year at all (perhaps due to location? Scoble – hint, hint), so it was fun to go there and see the bloggers’ reactions to the keynote. I tuned out as he spun Vista’s success, but it was definitely a lively environment for it!

LOW: “Gizmodogate.” I think more than anything else I’m disappointed in that group, as I know some of the Gizmodo staff individually. Seems like one of those moments where a funny idea went way way way too far. The idea? Funny. Doing it? Not Funny.

HIGH: Flying Virgin America from LV to SFO. In-seat videos and gaming, combined with AC adapters (and USB chargers) at every seat? As per the letter I just wrote to United Airlines (where I’m currently a 1K flyer), it’s pretty irresistible.

LOW: Not getting a day to just watch and walk the show floor. Last year I had 3 days to scout for cool technology for a client, as well as blog the whole time. This year I had 15 hour demo days. But at least I got my…

Bug Labs Dinner at Smith & Wollensky'sHIGH: Steak at Smith & Wollensky’s. This is an annual CES tradition of mine, and one I intend to continue for years to come.

LOW: CES 2009 reverts to the old-school Thurs-Sun schedule. AND it coincides with MacWorld. I’m sure some planners had very good reasons and intents, but the outcome is just miserable for everyone involved. Here’s a suggestion: can we begin a plan to shift CES from it’s current timeslot to one month later? It’d be nice for the 100,000 or so individuals involved in putting together demos and booths to have a December vacation once in a while.

And now to end on some very positive notes…

JT and Gary KrakowHIGH: Catching up with all my friends at the show, be they bloggers, former Sling Media coworkers, venture capitalists, press & analysts, or consumer electronics industry execs. Great to see you all again!

HIGH: Sneak preview of TuneUp Media at the show, as well as Splashtop winning a PC World “Most Innovative Products” award!

HIGH: Meeting some people in person whom I’d previously only known online. Especially some original Slingbox beta testers, and bloggers Shawn Morton, Doc Searls, and Engadget’s Ben Drawbaugh.

HIGH: Bothering my friends and family in a little grass roots attempt to win CNET’s “People’s Choice” award at CES. I even used Facebook and (oy) Twitter! Bug lost out to Motorola (and probably a few others). I think they have a slightly wider brand awareness…

HIGH: Not catching the CES Flu this year. Feel better, Robert and others!

UBER-HIGH: My CES Best Of Show Threepeat. More on that on my personal blog later.

JT at the LVCCThat’s my wrapup of CES 2008, another one for the books! All my photos are online here. Now I wait for MacWorld, to find out exactly what my new MacBook Pro will be, as I will undoubtedly pick one up the first day I possibly can.

Bug Labs selected as Best of CES Finalist

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This is fun (more fun than being yelled at by everybody in my Apple post – yes, people, you’ve made your point!).  Bug Labs  (with whom I work) just got picked by CNET as a Best of CES contender!  For such a tiny startup, this is a wonderful honor, and the whole team is really energized (I’d say “psyched”, but that’s more for us in California, the New Yorkers wouldn’t be big fans of the term).

The company could also use a little help and support from the tech community, as they are up against some huge players.  So our David is taking on the Goliath by reaching out to get some votes for the People’s Voice award.   You can vote online here, or you can text in your vote (text PV14 to 26381).  Please use your proverbial slingshot to help the company out!!

UPDATE: I just noticed that CNBC/Donny Deutsch show is also polling for their favorite, and we’d love a little help there too!

Hey Apple, you get NEXT week!

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Did a quick scan on Techmeme this morning for interesting CES news. Guess what I see?

Apple on Techmeme

Apple decided to announce new servers today. I call this a lame move.

Last year, Apple dominated CES without even being there with their iPhone announcements. This, in my opinion, was fair game, since CEA scheduled the conference to overlap with MacWorld.

However this year there’s no schedule conflict. And the PR guys and marketing team there know this, and they also know that by issuing virtually ANY news (Mac servers? really? do they exist?) they are going to get prominent coverage. In other words, they did this intentionally to steal any limelight from the thousands (yes THOUSANDS) of companies spending HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars at CES.

This is a lame move akin to a bully stealing some lunch money. Lame, and unnecessary. And in case anyone’s forgotten, I actually like Apple now. Well, maybe just a little bit less.

UPDATE: okay, 20 comments later, I get it, you don’t agree.  that’s fine, and some of you raise some good points.  but no need for the personal attacks, that’s lamer than lame!

Bug Labs makes CES announcements

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Bug Labs (whom I work with) announced a bunch of updates today, the day before we head off to LV for CES. For those of you following the company, whose “Lego of Gadgets” is catching a lot of great attention in the tech community, here are the highlights:

Pricing (including an Early Adopter Discount):

  • BUGbase $349 ($299 w/discount)
  • LCD module $119 ($99 w/discount)
  • GPS module $99 ($79 w/discount)
  • Camera module $79 ($69 w/discount)
  • Motion detector / Accelerometer $59 ($49 w/discount)

Availability:

  • Pre-orders start on 01/21
  • Fulfillment starts by 03/17

New module:

  • The Von Hippel module (named after MIT professor Eric von Hippel) is a “breakout box” for the BUG platform

New promotions:

  • Early Adopter Discount – price break offered to consumers who purchase/pre-order within the first 60 days. Now that’s technology.
  • BUG+EDU – promotions aimed at educational institutions, no specific details announced at this time.

For the first time, the company issued a press release in addition to the blog post, if you are curious as to why, take a look at my marketing blog post. Coverage is popping up online at Engadget, Gizmodo, Geek.com, PC Magazine, EE Times, Random Thoughts, Mashable, and Brad Feld, Fred Wilson’s and Bijan Sabet’s blog (note: these three are investors).

See you in Vegas!

The LG/Netflix box might just succeed

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There’s only room for 4 devices in the average living room. They are: a display (LCD/plasma/whatever), a cable/satellite receiver (aka set top box or STB), a DVD player, and a game console. For travelers, you can add a Slingbox to that list, but that’s about where I draw the line (sounds like Erick at TechCrunch has a similar philosophy). Remember, I said “average” living room. I’ll expand on my four device theory at a later date.

Netflix was rumored to be building its own box, a project I was sure to see fail. Instead (or in addition or in replacement of) they are going to integrate their Internet delivery service into some future LG products. This is, in my opinion, the only path for success. By doing so they eliminate all risk of becoming a hardware company, which surely would have sent them on the path to failure.

Don Frommer at SAI asks 5 good questions, but of them I feel only one is extremely relevant: how much will they cost? On the PC you get one movie per dollar you spend per month with Netflix. If that model translates to the TV box, then we have a winner. If, on the other hand, I have to spend per movie, then Houston, we have a problem. That would put them squarely into competing with cable/satellite on-demand services, and Comcast has a much bigger war chest in that arena.

Over at NewTeeVee the question of competitive services is raised, citing AppleTV, VUDU, Amazon Unbox/TiVo as comparison products. In my eyes, none are competitive. The “smart” marketing of the (rumored) $799 HD/Blu-Ray player will simply label it as having Netflix “built in” or something like that. It won’t get marketed as “The Netflix Box” (except, of course, FROM Netflix). Consumers have shown resilience to these boxes, and the Netflix brand simply isn’t strong enough in that sense. We all know what movies are, and we are used to a bunch of existing models. Having the top-of-the-line LG DVD player include movies “as if by magic” is a winning combo.

My friend Dave Zatz is a little less enamored with it: “As I said recently, given content licensing fees and Netflix’s low-cost subscriptions, I don’t see how unlimited streaming could be an economically viable business plan… Time will tell if they stick with it.” I think it’s a fair point, with a big however. The however is I’m sure some math genius at Netflix has all sorts of cost/usage estimates that predict a certain quantity of movie watching. Again, just a guess of mine, but I would presume they have a long way to go before it becomes overly costly.

So to summarize – the path to success from here:

  1. Integrate into a DVD player and NOT a “Internet STB”, and add NO extra fees for the service beyond existing Netflix monthlies.
  2. ???
  3. Profit.

Surviving CES Tips: 2008 Edition

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My two posts last year on CES (1 and 2) had a lot of great comments and I got good feedback from colleagues long after the show. So I’m back again with a new version for ’08. Some of the content is recycled, some is brand spankin’ new.

  1. Wear comfortable shoes. It was #1 last year and is again. Even if you are the guy wearing the $6500 suit (come on!), put on your Adidas or Reeboks or whatever to go with it. Few will notice, and if anyone questions, saying “yeah, I decided it’s smarter to be comfortable than look pretty at CES” probably trumps any kind of rebuttal. It’s a BIG show and you’ll end up walking a few miles every day. Freebie bonus tip: while walking the show floor, try to walk on the booths as they tend to have better padding than the walkways between booths.
  2. Bring Purel and some chapstick. Wash before eating, because CES 2008 is also International Germfest 2008. Also, Vegas is in the middle of a desert, so having chapstick (and some moisturizer) will help. Bonus: if you have a overly dry hotel room, leave the bathtub 1/4 full of water overnight, you’ll feel better in the morning.
  3. Go counter the traffic flow. Day one will have the North and Central Halls buzzing. Head to the South Hall or Sands (do NOT miss the Sands!). If you are there through all four days, don’t even walk into the North/Central halls until Wednesday. The worst thing that can happen is you won’t get your hands on some crappy t-shirt you’ll never wear. Which brings me to
  4. Discriminate on swag. Do you really want a Panasonic pen, or a Sony plastic bag, or a brochure from TiVo? Really? My wife has actually forbidden me from bringing home anything we won’t actually use, unless it’s a gift. New for 2008: I’m not allowed to bring mints home anymore either!
  5. Don’t harass booth workers. They all have jobs to do (booth babes included), and just because they are there doesn’t mean they are the right person for you to give your 30 minute lecture as to why you are unhappy with your DVD player. It’s also not fair to beat up on some marketing guy who doesn’t have a uber-techie-detail question (although if they don’t help find you the right person, well, then they’ve asked for it). Also, if you see 12 people from CNN trying to set up a video shoot, you should probably realize you’ve become a lower priority, try to grab a business card and head out rather than wait for that awkward moment…
  6. Don’t hide your badge. First, it’s just a nuisance. Second, people like me train all our booth staffers to ask people like you who you are. Third, good booth staffers will treat you the same as anyone else, although they might just filter you to the right person. If you are an important member of the press or a senior guy at a huge company, well odds are you shouldn’t be talking to the 23 year old QA person who was roped into coming to CES to help with some booth shifts. Flip side comment here: if you are working the booth and someone comes up that is a competitor, don’t be rude or glib. Treat them the same as any random booth visitor. It’s just stupid to tell them they can’t see something or take pictures, when any random schmo can do exactly that.
  7. Plan ahead. If you have not registered for the show, you aren’t getting in (this happened to a commentor here last year). If you forget your badge, you are paying a fee to get it back. Pick up your badge at one o fthe non-primary locations (Sands, hotels, Hilton, etc). Traveling between any two destinations could easily take an hour, even as early as 8am (my calendar has 45 minutes of travel time between every two meetings, even if they are close to each other).
  8. Need Connections? Figure it out ahead of time. Every year it gets better, but every year it’s still bad. Internet connectivity is unreliable anywhere in the convention center. Even the press room’s Internet service went down last year. If you MUST be online for a call/meeting/briefing/WoW session, have a place in mind to do it. I recommend either your own hotel room, or if you are a blogger, the PodTech BlogHaus (which is a lot out of the way, but supposedly has awesome connectivity).
  9. Use SMS to coordinate. Last year’s CES was where I mastered the T9 10-key texting interface on my phone. You have to yell and scream to be heard on a phone call from the show floor, but texting works great. Even at night at the various industry parties we were still texting to find each other. If your cell phone plan doesn’t have texting, or you have waited to really try it out, now’s the time.
  10. Bring business cards. I would say roughly 97% of the people that I’ve met at CES over the years who don’t have cards regret not having them. Maybe it seems cool now not to carry them. Maybe you think they are so 1990s. The truth is, there’s almost no reason not to carry cards, and even looking at it from a potential loss vs potential gain perspective says: carry the darn things! And Moo cards don’t count, people.
  11. Pack lightly. My recommendation is to walk the floor with either nothing or a near-empty backpack. Forget shoulder straps, you’ll be aching by the end of the day. Bring nothing you do not need during the day. Also, try to dump your bag prior to dinner, so you can spend the night on the town without having to remember anything later. What happens in Vegas…
  12. Check the live coverage. Engadget puts up a post every 3.8 seconds during CES (this is not a fact, I am just guessing). Make sure you tap into theirs (or Gizmodos or your own favorite gadget blog) during the course of the show. They might find something you hadn’t heard of before, and you might miss it otherwise.
  13. Lower your expectations. If memory serves, the last time a company introduced something that was genuinely new and interesting at CES was Moxi, about 6 years ago (which was about the last time they were really interesting, unfortunately). The show is rarely the place where a company will launch newly innovative products, although it is a great place to see the ones that were announced in the past. Expect bigger/flashier screens, cameras, etc, but don’t expect something new and amazing. Heck, one of the top CE analysts in the country isn’t even going!

That’s it folks, 13 tips for maximizing your CES experience. Have a great show!

Updated: I decided to put some tips for people whose job is to work the booths over on my company blog. Check em out!

Technology Predictions for 2008

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I’ve seen lots of Top 10 lists on the subject, and I’ve decided to try a different format for my own prognostications. Instead of by rank, I’ll do a list by industry.  Also, I have way more than 10 predictions to make.

TV Technology

  • Every major cable company will increase it’s rates by more than 3%. Nobody will complain, and our government will (again) fail to protect us from them.
  • A resolution above 1080p starts appearing in demos and labs, I’d predict a bump up into the 4000 vertical lines space.
  • Bluray and HD-DVD continue to duke it out while consumers continue to not care.
  • One of Hulu, Joost, etc get integrated into the Xbox 360 and/or PS3.
  • Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future.
  • Anyone who is not a telephone company that tries to launch an IP-streaming set top device has a very rough year.
  • Despite near-constant predictions of their demise, TiVo makes it through another year, possibly getting acquired (by DirecTV, Comcast, Netflix, Blockbuster, or someone out of the blue like Amazon or eBay).

Portable Devices That Are Not Cell Phones

  • Zune 3.0 launches. It’s very very good. Further, iPod’s market share dips, although they still have an increase in overall unit sales (in other words: the pie gets bigger faster than their sales do). That said, a new iPod is even more betterer than all previous versions, making everyone who recently bought a prior generation a wee bit annoyed, but gosh that Steve Jobs is so charming they just don’t care. After all, that’s technology!
  • At least two major camera vendors introduce integrated wifi cameras, but no more than one uses an open service, the rest have some proprietary, closed, annoying-to-use system. Ideally one of them buys Eye-fi.
  • Digital picture frames continue to grow in market share, but still don’t “tip” into the mainstream.
  • More companies introduce e-book readers despite general malaise in the category. Kindle II is launched with mild improvements.

Enterprise Services

  • I have no clue, I don’t follow the space. Hello, this is a consumer tech blog!

Computers

  • Apple’s new laptops will include an ultramobile, a tablet, and a “desktop replacement” OR a “gaming model” (they may combine the first two). Enhancements will include a card reader, 3G access as a built-in option, and new gestures. Market share continues to climb.
  • Microsoft continues to spin about how amazing Vista is. Michael Gartenberg’s observations are probably the most poignant as to why it isn’t.
  • Asus or Dell acquires or merges with one of HP, Acer, Toshiba, or other “meh” PC maker.
  • Sony continues to make subpar Vaio laptops. And for the last time (I think) in 2007: don’t buy the Sony Vaio VGN-SZ4xx series laptops, they are just plain terrible. I’ve now had the chance to voice my discontent directly to the Vaio PR team (at Ruder Finn) who have yet to write me back on the topic.
  • Nobody makes my awesome dual-screen laptop concept, thus leaving me the opportunity to make zillions one day.

Social Networking

  • Facebook continues to get backlash from the media and tech community, meanwhile its user base continues to skyrocket. Further, they hire another 1000 people, yet only make modest improvements to the site itself. I’d add a 33% chance that they “pull a Netscape” and go after the desktop or the browser or some other place they really don’t belong.
  • Randomly pick some names from the huge list of other social networking sites and some of them merge.
  • Adults who didn’t grow up with social networking services experience burnout of being bitten by zombies after a few months, and many stop checking in four times per day. Those who went to school during the Facebook era continue to complain about all the old fogies (like me) polluting their sacred resting ground. They also continue to put radically inappropriate pictures of themselves online, blissfully unaware of the interviewing process.

Mobile Tech

  • A few Android-powered phones ship, but not as many as the tech community would like to see. Again showing why the Razr can utterly dominate the market despite a closed architecture and terrible user interface.
  • Apple launches the iPhone 3G, the iPhone nano, and the iPhonePro. Ok, I’m not 100% sure on the third, but I am betting on the first two. Also, one of these new phones comes unlocked OR on a carrier other than AT&T.
  • Some major lawsuit occurs between a carrier and either a cable company or a broadcaster, all about mobile video rights. All parties involved appear as nothing but greedy to outsiders.
  • Something new comes out in the phone space that’s more astounding than the iPhone. It’s possibly: uber-small, has a radically better battery life, does something funky like synchs with the Wii, or works with all US carriers.

Gaming

  • With lots of stealth, a new console comes to market. It might only be a moderate shift from a prior model, or possibly be a whole new entrant.
  • Rock Band 2 and 3, and Guitar Heros 4, 5, 6, and “Eddie Van Halen” editions come out, however nobody licenses the Harmonix engine to make “Jazz Trio”.
  • Someone comes up with a really impressively new concept for the Wii. Good odds, however, that they wrap it inside a crappy game.
  • More really amazing HD gaming occurs, continuing to drive HD adoption faster than the meager channels the cable companies try to placate us with, despite the fact that they raise prices again. Did I already say that?

Web Services/Misc

  • A wide swath of “Web 2.0” companies will go dark, primarily out of an inability to either figure out a business model for their product, or an inability to successfully market their service outside of the Bay Area.  They will quickly be forgotten and replaced by new ones with even goofier sounding names like Froobooloo.com.
  • No major Wimax deployments occur.
  • The digital transition date looms, starts creating a lot of media hype a la Year2000 mania.
  • RFID continues to be a fun topic for the media, but all that happens is Walmart continues to make small vendors spend loads of money for the privelege of selling there.
  • Bloggers fret about not being recognized as “press”, yet continue to spend too much time/energy gossiping about other bloggers, an activity the general public remains disinterested in and doesn’t give extra respect/credibility for.  This circular logic is baffling, I know.
  • We lose even more rights to big media, because few Americans are willing to take even the tiniest steps to do anything about it.  PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG (start here)!
  • I still don’t Twitter.

See you in 366 days to see how I scored!