In response to the article How Apple Will Use The iPhone To Take Over The Wireless Industry, I’m opening by saying “take over” is a ludicrous claim. Do you have any idea the sheer volume of mobile handsets sold worldwide?
Further, there are a lot fewer people influenced by style and experience in the phone industry than in others. The Razr (aka the most successful cell phone of all time) moved 50M units in 4 years. And that’s been THE trendy phone to-date, and you can get them for next-to-nothing already.
But I’ll keep going, the turnover rate in mobile phones in the US is under two years and dropping. In countries like Hong Kong it’s hovering just over 3 months. So Apple has to not only have the “best” phone (already questionable), but they must sustain that position continuously.
Also (I’m on a roll here), don’t forget that the mobile OS industry is much less locked-down than the PC industry, where the only competition takes 5 years to put out a terrible upgrade to their OS. There are 4 other solid mobile operating systems for manufacturers to choose from, all of which allow for tremendous device flexibility.
Finally, unlike the PC industry which operates on margins so bad that a single tech support call makes a PC unprofitable, there’s plenty of money in mobile. LG, Samsung, Moto, and Nokia (to name a few) will not bend-over quite as peacefully as Compaq, Dell, Gateway, and Sony (you know Sony, right, makers of my hunk-o-laptop?) have to the competition.
Will Apple be a player in the mobile space? Definitely. Will they utterly dominate it the way they do the music space? I have to say it’s possible, but I highly doubt it.
I have to remember to write a blog post talking about domain expertise and the difference between the Web world and the device world.