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CES 2008: the highs and lows

Posted on January 13, 2008 by Jeremy Toeman

Trying to “keep it fresh” (or is that “keep it real”?), I’m doing my show recap with a slightly different format. Here are my highs and lows of the show:

ProudHIGH: Unquestionably, winning the Best of Show award with Bug Labs this year. All in all Bug Labs (whom I work with) had a phenomenal CES, which I’ll blog about over at the Stage Two blog in the next couple of days.

LOW: Panasonic’s 150 inch plasma. I’m probably going to end up buying a Panny plasma this year anyway, but I couldn’t help but shake my head with dismay at this screen (although it’s certainly using some impressive technology, I definitely give them credit for that). It’s just ridiculous from every perspective, and the utter waste in even creating the thing is astounding to me. Especially in light of…

HIGH: Philips’ eco-friendly plasma TV. Of all things to lose the Overall best in show award to, this was my pick. Good for them to set a good example for the CE industry. Hopefully this is the beginning of a big trend, as plasmas are about as non-green a gadget you can possibly buy.

LOW: No major new innovations. While I wasn’t following the news as well as I’d have liked, it seemed like CES ’08 was really about bigger (or thinner), faster, better, etc. No major new formats/platforms/technologies announced (other than Tru2Way, the terribly named tech that will probably be only minorly more successful than CableCard), no really new innovative device unveiled, just more of the same old, same old. Also, I (and others) think the show is just too darn big now.

Scoble watches Gates keynote at the BloghausHIGH: Watching the Bill Gates keynote AT the BlogHaus. I didn’t make it last year at all (perhaps due to location? Scoble – hint, hint), so it was fun to go there and see the bloggers’ reactions to the keynote. I tuned out as he spun Vista’s success, but it was definitely a lively environment for it!

LOW: “Gizmodogate.” I think more than anything else I’m disappointed in that group, as I know some of the Gizmodo staff individually. Seems like one of those moments where a funny idea went way way way too far. The idea? Funny. Doing it? Not Funny.

HIGH: Flying Virgin America from LV to SFO. In-seat videos and gaming, combined with AC adapters (and USB chargers) at every seat? As per the letter I just wrote to United Airlines (where I’m currently a 1K flyer), it’s pretty irresistible.

LOW: Not getting a day to just watch and walk the show floor. Last year I had 3 days to scout for cool technology for a client, as well as blog the whole time. This year I had 15 hour demo days. But at least I got my…

Bug Labs Dinner at Smith & Wollensky'sHIGH: Steak at Smith & Wollensky’s. This is an annual CES tradition of mine, and one I intend to continue for years to come.

LOW: CES 2009 reverts to the old-school Thurs-Sun schedule. AND it coincides with MacWorld. I’m sure some planners had very good reasons and intents, but the outcome is just miserable for everyone involved. Here’s a suggestion: can we begin a plan to shift CES from it’s current timeslot to one month later? It’d be nice for the 100,000 or so individuals involved in putting together demos and booths to have a December vacation once in a while.

And now to end on some very positive notes…

JT and Gary KrakowHIGH: Catching up with all my friends at the show, be they bloggers, former Sling Media coworkers, venture capitalists, press & analysts, or consumer electronics industry execs. Great to see you all again!

HIGH: Sneak preview of TuneUp Media at the show, as well as Splashtop winning a PC World “Most Innovative Products” award!

HIGH: Meeting some people in person whom I’d previously only known online. Especially some original Slingbox beta testers, and bloggers Shawn Morton, Doc Searls, and Engadget’s Ben Drawbaugh.

HIGH: Bothering my friends and family in a little grass roots attempt to win CNET’s “People’s Choice” award at CES. I even used Facebook and (oy) Twitter! Bug lost out to Motorola (and probably a few others). I think they have a slightly wider brand awareness…

HIGH: Not catching the CES Flu this year. Feel better, Robert and others!

UBER-HIGH: My CES Best Of Show Threepeat. More on that on my personal blog later.

JT at the LVCCThat’s my wrapup of CES 2008, another one for the books! All my photos are online here. Now I wait for MacWorld, to find out exactly what my new MacBook Pro will be, as I will undoubtedly pick one up the first day I possibly can.

Posted in Gadgets | 8 Comments |

Bug Labs selected as Best of CES Finalist

Posted on January 8, 2008 by Jeremy Toeman

This is fun (more fun than being yelled at by everybody in my Apple post – yes, people, you’ve made your point!).  Bug Labs  (with whom I work) just got picked by CNET as a Best of CES contender!  For such a tiny startup, this is a wonderful honor, and the whole team is really energized (I’d say “psyched”, but that’s more for us in California, the New Yorkers wouldn’t be big fans of the term).

The company could also use a little help and support from the tech community, as they are up against some huge players.  So our David is taking on the Goliath by reaching out to get some votes for the People’s Voice award.   You can vote online here, or you can text in your vote (text PV14 to 26381).  Please use your proverbial slingshot to help the company out!!

UPDATE: I just noticed that CNBC/Donny Deutsch show is also polling for their favorite, and we’d love a little help there too!

Posted in Gadgets | 7 Comments |

Bug Labs makes CES announcements

Posted on January 5, 2008 by Jeremy Toeman

Bug Labs (whom I work with) announced a bunch of updates today, the day before we head off to LV for CES. For those of you following the company, whose “Lego of Gadgets” is catching a lot of great attention in the tech community, here are the highlights:

Pricing (including an Early Adopter Discount):

  • BUGbase $349 ($299 w/discount)
  • LCD module $119 ($99 w/discount)
  • GPS module $99 ($79 w/discount)
  • Camera module $79 ($69 w/discount)
  • Motion detector / Accelerometer $59 ($49 w/discount)

Availability:

  • Pre-orders start on 01/21
  • Fulfillment starts by 03/17

New module:

  • The Von Hippel module (named after MIT professor Eric von Hippel) is a “breakout box” for the BUG platform

New promotions:

  • Early Adopter Discount – price break offered to consumers who purchase/pre-order within the first 60 days. Now that’s technology.
  • BUG+EDU – promotions aimed at educational institutions, no specific details announced at this time.

For the first time, the company issued a press release in addition to the blog post, if you are curious as to why, take a look at my marketing blog post. Coverage is popping up online at Engadget, Gizmodo, Geek.com, PC Magazine, EE Times, Random Thoughts, Mashable, and Brad Feld, Fred Wilson’s and Bijan Sabet’s blog (note: these three are investors).

See you in Vegas!

Posted in Gadgets, Product Announcements | 4 Comments |

Technology Predictions for 2008

Posted on December 30, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

I’ve seen lots of Top 10 lists on the subject, and I’ve decided to try a different format for my own prognostications. Instead of by rank, I’ll do a list by industry.  Also, I have way more than 10 predictions to make.

TV Technology

  • Every major cable company will increase it’s rates by more than 3%. Nobody will complain, and our government will (again) fail to protect us from them.
  • A resolution above 1080p starts appearing in demos and labs, I’d predict a bump up into the 4000 vertical lines space.
  • Bluray and HD-DVD continue to duke it out while consumers continue to not care.
  • One of Hulu, Joost, etc get integrated into the Xbox 360 and/or PS3.
  • Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future.
  • Anyone who is not a telephone company that tries to launch an IP-streaming set top device has a very rough year.
  • Despite near-constant predictions of their demise, TiVo makes it through another year, possibly getting acquired (by DirecTV, Comcast, Netflix, Blockbuster, or someone out of the blue like Amazon or eBay).

Portable Devices That Are Not Cell Phones

  • Zune 3.0 launches. It’s very very good. Further, iPod’s market share dips, although they still have an increase in overall unit sales (in other words: the pie gets bigger faster than their sales do). That said, a new iPod is even more betterer than all previous versions, making everyone who recently bought a prior generation a wee bit annoyed, but gosh that Steve Jobs is so charming they just don’t care. After all, that’s technology!
  • At least two major camera vendors introduce integrated wifi cameras, but no more than one uses an open service, the rest have some proprietary, closed, annoying-to-use system. Ideally one of them buys Eye-fi.
  • Digital picture frames continue to grow in market share, but still don’t “tip” into the mainstream.
  • More companies introduce e-book readers despite general malaise in the category. Kindle II is launched with mild improvements.

Enterprise Services

  • I have no clue, I don’t follow the space. Hello, this is a consumer tech blog!

Computers

  • Apple’s new laptops will include an ultramobile, a tablet, and a “desktop replacement” OR a “gaming model” (they may combine the first two). Enhancements will include a card reader, 3G access as a built-in option, and new gestures. Market share continues to climb.
  • Microsoft continues to spin about how amazing Vista is. Michael Gartenberg’s observations are probably the most poignant as to why it isn’t.
  • Asus or Dell acquires or merges with one of HP, Acer, Toshiba, or other “meh” PC maker.
  • Sony continues to make subpar Vaio laptops. And for the last time (I think) in 2007: don’t buy the Sony Vaio VGN-SZ4xx series laptops, they are just plain terrible. I’ve now had the chance to voice my discontent directly to the Vaio PR team (at Ruder Finn) who have yet to write me back on the topic.
  • Nobody makes my awesome dual-screen laptop concept, thus leaving me the opportunity to make zillions one day.

Social Networking

  • Facebook continues to get backlash from the media and tech community, meanwhile its user base continues to skyrocket. Further, they hire another 1000 people, yet only make modest improvements to the site itself. I’d add a 33% chance that they “pull a Netscape” and go after the desktop or the browser or some other place they really don’t belong.
  • Randomly pick some names from the huge list of other social networking sites and some of them merge.
  • Adults who didn’t grow up with social networking services experience burnout of being bitten by zombies after a few months, and many stop checking in four times per day. Those who went to school during the Facebook era continue to complain about all the old fogies (like me) polluting their sacred resting ground. They also continue to put radically inappropriate pictures of themselves online, blissfully unaware of the interviewing process.

Mobile Tech

  • A few Android-powered phones ship, but not as many as the tech community would like to see. Again showing why the Razr can utterly dominate the market despite a closed architecture and terrible user interface.
  • Apple launches the iPhone 3G, the iPhone nano, and the iPhonePro. Ok, I’m not 100% sure on the third, but I am betting on the first two. Also, one of these new phones comes unlocked OR on a carrier other than AT&T.
  • Some major lawsuit occurs between a carrier and either a cable company or a broadcaster, all about mobile video rights. All parties involved appear as nothing but greedy to outsiders.
  • Something new comes out in the phone space that’s more astounding than the iPhone. It’s possibly: uber-small, has a radically better battery life, does something funky like synchs with the Wii, or works with all US carriers.

Gaming

  • With lots of stealth, a new console comes to market. It might only be a moderate shift from a prior model, or possibly be a whole new entrant.
  • Rock Band 2 and 3, and Guitar Heros 4, 5, 6, and “Eddie Van Halen” editions come out, however nobody licenses the Harmonix engine to make “Jazz Trio”.
  • Someone comes up with a really impressively new concept for the Wii. Good odds, however, that they wrap it inside a crappy game.
  • More really amazing HD gaming occurs, continuing to drive HD adoption faster than the meager channels the cable companies try to placate us with, despite the fact that they raise prices again. Did I already say that?

Web Services/Misc

  • A wide swath of “Web 2.0” companies will go dark, primarily out of an inability to either figure out a business model for their product, or an inability to successfully market their service outside of the Bay Area.  They will quickly be forgotten and replaced by new ones with even goofier sounding names like Froobooloo.com.
  • No major Wimax deployments occur.
  • The digital transition date looms, starts creating a lot of media hype a la Year2000 mania.
  • RFID continues to be a fun topic for the media, but all that happens is Walmart continues to make small vendors spend loads of money for the privelege of selling there.
  • Bloggers fret about not being recognized as “press”, yet continue to spend too much time/energy gossiping about other bloggers, an activity the general public remains disinterested in and doesn’t give extra respect/credibility for.  This circular logic is baffling, I know.
  • We lose even more rights to big media, because few Americans are willing to take even the tiniest steps to do anything about it.  PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG (start here)!
  • I still don’t Twitter.

See you in 366 days to see how I scored!

Posted in Convergence, Gadgets, Gaming, General, Guides, Mobile Technology, Video/Music/Media, Web/Internet | 13 Comments |

Bug Labs visits San Francisco

Posted on December 1, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

Jeremy Toeman and Peter SemmelhackOK, that’s a bit of a misnomer since a few of us live here, but Peter Semmelhack (CEO) and Ken Gilmer (head of software) came out to SF this week for our BUG+SF event. From 6-9pm on Thursday we had a big turnout of people interested in seeing hands-on demos of the BUGbase and a few modules. We had a great time, and thanks to everyone who could come (here are some pix on Flickr).

Friday morning Peter, myself and the rest of the Stage Two team, and some of my officemates (and colleagues and friends) from Echo Marketing went to the San Francisco Food Bank to volunteer for a few hours . With each BUG+ event we like to follow it up with spending some time directly giving back to the local community (I missed the one in Boston, but here’s Matt’s excellent writeup). Prior to joining Sling I was doing a lot of regular volunteering, but due to insane traveling those two years I really hadn’t done much since. It felt really good to get involved again, and it’s something we plan to do a lot more regularly. For those of you who need any incentive (beyond the fact that volunteering makes you feel really really good):

ONE in FIVE (aka 1/5, one-fifth, or 20%) of FAMILIES in San Francisco (the city, not the Bay Area) earn under $25,000 per YEAR. That’s 150,000 people. They need our help. Click here to read more and get involved.

VolunteeringOur group of 7 people was paired up with another larger group of 30. In under three hours we boxed and sorted 5 tons of food. The SF Food Bank has less than 60 people on staff, so it’s pretty easy to feel the impact that small groups like ours can have on helping getting things done. You can see more pictures here.

We went back to my office to get some more work done, and my friend Robert Scoble came by for a chat. And for those of you who know Robert, when we told him we had a working BUG to show, out came the video camera cell phone, and he got a bunch of fun, casual footage of Peter and I doing demos.

Overall, great trip at so many levels. Especially playing a little Rock Band before Peter caught his flight back to NYC.
Peter, Ron, and JT playing Rock Band

Posted in Gadgets | 1 Comment |

Why Amazon's Kindle will fail.

Posted on November 18, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

First, let me say I very much like Amazon, and about 90% or more of my online shopping goes through them, in virtually every category. Used books, new games, my soon-to-be-replaced 32″ Olevia LCD, baby apparel, rechargable Xbox controllers, and even Kangaroo Ribs – all from Amazon (sorry, the kangaroo meat vendor seems to have disappeared, but its hopefully temporary. tastes like chicken). But no matter how much I may like them doesn’t change my belief that their new electronic book reader device will fail, and fail terribly.

Electronic readers are one of those categories that sound really great in a boardroom. They demo great, and technologists tend to love them (yup, that includes my friends). I’m sure they even test well in focus groups, and will rapidly admit that there is *some* market for them. But that market isn’t the masses, it’s a small niche. And unfortunately, small niches are hard to sustain if you are a gadget maker.

The way I like to look at a new gadget is generally inspired by the language Pip Coburn uses in The Change Function. Is the market today “in crisis” when it comes to books? No. Next, is there a perceived pain in adopting electronic book readers? Absolutely. Now that’s not enough to completely rule out the category, but it certainly is a quick and dirty way to see why it’s not quite a slam dunk either.

In my eyes this is one of those technologies that is still searching for a problem. At $399 + $9.99 per book, it’s certainly not a cost-competitive solution to purchasing books, unless you are comparing solely against new, hardcover prints. Further, it’s not exactly a challenge to find and buy books, whether online or offline, new or used. In fact, it’s pretty hard to argue that an electronic reader will vastly improve the book discovery, purchase, and consumption experience (unlike how much an MP3 player was able to do that exact thing). The only really viable argument against physical books is they are bigger and bulkier, but that really only applies to hardcover books.

I can go on at length about all the different use-cases for why an electronic reader can’t win, but then I think this would become one of those all-too-wordy posts I tend to use. So, I’ll jump into quick bulleted list format for the rest:

  • Unlike newspapers and magazines, the content of books isn’t about timeliness, so digital versions do not offer an advantage. While those industries are in a change-or-die crisis, books aren’t.
  • Book consumption is unlike any other form of media, and cannot be compared to music, videos, news articles, blog posts, etc.
  • The “barriers” to buying a book today involve knowing where to buy a book. Anyone savvy enough to buy Kindle knows where to buy books, and it is highly unlikely they are in massive dissatisfaction with that process. Compare this to the perceived barriers about an electronic reader.
  • Most positive comments on e-readers have tons of “ifs” in them. IF it has good battery life. IF the screen looks good. IF buying books is easy. IF its very “booklike”. This isn’t a sound argument for a product, it’s instead presenting a very narrow window and how to look through it in order to see the light.
  • For the most part, consumers do not buy technology products because of technology. They buy products for the services they provide, and the experiences that go along with them. Kindle would have to literally knock it out of the park to pass this criteria, not to mention everything I’ve mentioned above. The reality is the mass market of consumes tends to resent most new technology, since it tends to be overly hyped and well-marketed, yet do little more than frustrate and fail to deliver on expectations (much like the Sony Vaio VGN-SZ460N, an utter failure of a laptop).

Lastly, it’s most prudent to think about the real-world use case for reading books. How many people are really in a position where they need a mobile library of 200 books with them to choose from? Few. In my years of experience designing products for consumers, they routinely react to new device categories extremely poorly. I obviously don’t know how much money Bezos & Co is willing to throw at the Kindle, so I can’t possibly predict how long until it disappears from the catalog, but I’m definitely willing to predict it doesn’t go the distance.

UPDATE: I just read Seth Godin’s thoughts on Kindle. One of the marketing blogs I definitely enjoy, and his post on the topic is pretty good. But he mentions something that again shows me how off the mark even “industry experts” can be. He writes “The challenge that my hero Jeff Bezos has is that if he’s really really lucky, he’ll sell a million of these things in a year.” I think he’s missing about 5+ “really”s here. If he’s lucky he’ll sell 50,000 in a year, really lucky is 100,000, and really really lucky is about 200K. Moving 7 figures worth of hardware per year is VERY VERY hard! VERY hard. And that’s in an established category, let alone a speculative one.

Posted in Convergence, Gadgets | 26 Comments |

BUG product pix now online

Posted on November 1, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

I try to keep my clients’ work out of this blog (yet another reason for me starting a personal blog), but since this falls into gadgetland, I figured it’s okay to do so. In case that’s not abundantly obvious… Disclaimer: Bug Labs is a paying client.

BUGbaseThis evening we put up a new version of the Bug Labs web site which incorporates real pictures of the BUG hardware platform. I’ve been working with the company since Winter of ’06, but I’m especially excited for the rest of the team, especially Peter, the founder. I vividly remember the first time I saw a production-quality Slingbox, and even back when the Denon NS-100 prototypes came out. All were extremely uplifting, proud moments. I didn’t play a part in designing the BUG, but I still have a great feeling about seeing the vision become a reality.

You can see all the pictures of the BUGbase and first four modules here, and the products page was updated as well. For more editorial opinion on the company, here’s coverage from Engadget, Gizmodo (ooh, video), Popular Science, Crunchgear, MAKE Magazine, and TechCrunch.

Posted in Gadgets | 1 Comment |

The Digital Camera is the most important gadget in my life

Posted on October 21, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

This is a post I’ve been meaning to write for quite some time.  The birth of my son massively influenced my perspective on gadgetry, and a recent loss in my family has cemented this opinion.  The digital camera is the single product I own that is creating long term value in my life, one which cannot be measured by any known metric.

Without going into too many details because I try to avoid such things here (I’ll even skip ranting about a certain Vaio and how much you shouldn’t buy one), my 94-year-old grandmother passed away this weekend.  She’d fallen in July, and never recovered.  Thanks in advance for the sympathy, but that’s definitely not the focal point of my post.

My wife and I managed to hop on a plane a few day later, and we took dozens of photos and videos of her holding my then-three-month-old boy.  It’s barely two months later, and those pictures are already some of the most valuable in my collection.  I look forward to the day when I’ll sit my son down at the computer (or hopefully some very cool holographic virtual device that’s the size of a cell phone.  it should also have a lasergun in it, but I digress), and get to show him the time he met his great-grandmother.

Cell phones are very practical and probably are in the #2 slot for me (and I’m not counting cell phones with cameras built-in yet, not until they hit 5MP or higher resolution).  The computer doesn’t count as a gadget in my world.  MP3 players aren’t even close.

As I was once told, and very much like to repeat: the value of a photograph is zero the moment you take it, and gains infinitely over time.  What a good investment!

Posted in Gadgets | Leave a comment |

8 reasons why most gadgets suck

Posted on October 15, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

I was testing out a few new devices this weekend, and found myself just immensely frustrated with them. At first I chalked it off to the pitiful, yet unbelievably tolerated excuse of “that’s technology”. But that’s really a pathetic answer. Gadgets should not suck as much as they do. So here’s my little list of Why Gadgets Suck:

  1. IMG_2775 alcohol tester mp3 playerThey are ill-conceived. I think the picture of the MP3 player slash breathalyzer I took at CES is the best example here. Too many people sitting in board rooms thinking up crazy ideas that apply to nobody. Also, convergence for the sake of convergence is a terrible idea. If you think consumers want keyboards in their living rooms, or more remote controls, or to carry around something that doesn’t fit in a pocket OR a backpack, you have the wrong consumer experts on your team.
  2. Too much jargon. If the average Joe can’t figure out how to add contacts using a Moto RAZR, forget putting in a network setup screen that asks them which type of wireless network security their SSID uses. If you can’t figure out how to make a setup screen have regular old English, then you’ve made your product too hard to figure out by regular people.  Think of it this way: the average person out there is uncomfortable with the concepts of “inputs and outputs” on their stereos – so if you are even minorly more sophisticated than that, you are confusing people.
  3. Unusable interfaces. A product should be usable without an instruction manual. Sending an SMS, synching MP3s or podcasts, and creating Season Passes should be as easy as making instant popcorn in the microwave. Granted there’s always room for “power user features” but the power users should be the 20%, not the 80%, of people who buy your product. If your “usability designer” (who probably has a Ph. D) shows you something and you don’t instantly understand it without explanation, it’s not good enough.
  4. Usability designers. I’m sure there are plenty of these folks who have built great products in reality. Unfortunately it sure seems like most of them just do it on paper. My biggest tip here is that a really good usability person (a) doesn’t need a degree in it and (b) can point out not just flaws, but ways to improve most products they use, be it a coffee maker or a cell phone.
  5. Lack of visionaries. Remember the old “a camel is a horse designed by a committee” phrase? In the devices world, this applies doubly. Visionaries keep products focused, whereas teams build according to “specs”. Three products built by visionaries: iPod, Slingbox, TiVo. Three products built by the rest: the Nomad Jukebox, Sony LocationFree TV, Comcast’s DVR. Need I say more?
  6. Poor timing. With a domestic market of over 50% of Internet-connected households having broadband, today would be an acceptable time to attempt to ship “Internet devices”. But when 3Com tried to ship the Audrey in the late 90s, that was poor timing. I recently played with two different gadgets that both used dialup networking to get online. ONLY. Not even a broadband option. Really?
  7. The buttons don’t match the screens. My Syntax Olevia 32″ LCD (which, by the way, is having issues and their tech support department has been excessively slow in responding to) has a very simple menuing system that’s extremely easy to navigate. However, the buttons on the remote were not laid out in a way to match the on-screen menus, and literally 1/2 the time I make a setting the button I push is the one that cancels the setting! You can certainly call this user error, but if someone as comfortable with devices as I am has a recurring issue like this, there’s probably a way the product could be made better.
  8. Shoddy workmanship. I’m really talking about poor product testing here, but I just like that phrase so much. It amazes me when I try out a product with a basic feature set, such as a media extender or a digital picture frame, and run into an actual bug within minutes of use. One product I tried had the on-screen fonts render at double their normal size during video playback and when I asked their engineers about it, they hadn’t seen it before. I was using a standard file format and wasn’t even trying to trip it up. Always review your test cases to make sure they line up with real-world scenarios, not the ones in the labs.

I could probably double this list up with other common annoyances out there, but this seems like a good spot to take a pause.

Posted in Gadgets, That's Janky | 9 Comments |

The "right" way to rev gadgets and pricing

Posted on September 6, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

In case you missed it, Apple announced they were discontinuing one iPhone and dropping the price on the second by 33%, all a mere 68 days after launch. Steve Jobs, the absolute master at generating hype, frenzy, and fandom in the consumer technology industry, dismissed this as “that’s technology.” Apparently a few people disagree (three highlights here here and here). I am one of these people.

In “the old days” all the way back in the 80s and even 90s, most consumer electronics products were cycled about once per year. Much like the auto industry, you knew full well if you bought a 100W Sony receiver with Dolby surround, the next year you’d see a 110W Sony receiver with Dolby Digital. That’s technology.

Jump ahead to today. Most consumer electronics devices still get cycled about once a year-ish, and the updates happen at different, but predictable times of the year. Flat panel displays tend to come out over the course of the Summer and early Fall, etc. Computers and mobile phones, on the other hand, are cycled fairly continuously, but again, predictable patterns exist, both in timing and pricing.

In the past two weeks, I now have two examples of companies (Apple now, Canon previously) ignoring any patterns, and simply “walk all over” their existing customers in the sake of bringing new things to market or dropping prices. These are the kinds of habits that create a chink in the armor of customer loyalty. And these chinks are exactly the moments that create opportunities for competitors.

So my advice to these manufacturers, and any others, is to think very carefully about your existing customers and how they will perceive your glorious news. If you bought an iPod nano last Xmas, you probably aren’t too upset about a new one – it’s been a while. If you bought one last month, my hunch is you are pissed. You might not do anything about it today, but the next time you are looking into buying a product, the competition might just have a chance to attract your attention.

I’m not advocating 3-month leaks on new products with pricing and tech specs revealed far too soon. I get that you have inventory that needs sell-off. But establish some patterns, we’ll learn and follow them. New iPod once a year? Great, no problem. iPhone discount just before the Holidays? Makes sense, we’re expecting it. Need to rush a new model to market to stay competitive? Excellent – set up an upgrade program for anyone who has made a purchase in the past 30 days.

The bottom line is easy: treat your existing customers with the respect and gratitude they deserve – they are the ones most responsible for delivering you your next batch of customers.

UPDATE: To the masses, Steve just did another wunderboy move with fresh kool-aid.  Still not drinkable where I come from, but something is better than nothing, right?

Posted in Gadgets, Marketing | 1 Comment |

Bug Labs – it's about the space between

Posted on September 5, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

Bug Lab’s CEO Peter blogged yesterday about the “pizza tail“. No, it’s not an analysis of the long tail of pizza (featuring combos such as Peach+Anchovies+Potatoes or Corn+Pumpkin+Cinnamon), it’s an interpretation of Chris Anderson’s Long Tail theory applied to the consumer electronics/gadget industry.

I’ve spent the better part of 10 years designing gadgets for different companies, and there’s an unfortunately sad truth about the lack of successful innovation in the consumer electronics industry.  The key word there is “successful” as there are numerous entrants into the space, from Prismiq to Dash, from Presto to TiVo.  TiVo is a success in that it returned a lot of money to its investors and is still afloat numerous years later, albeit on questionable footing.  Prismiq won best in show at CES in 2003, then couldn’t sell enough units to keep the company alive. Dash is pre-launch, with an uphill battle ahead of them (though I *love* the concept), where they are taking on a rather entrenched industry.  Presto launched late last year, and again I feel it’s a good concept, with many barriers to “success”.

The common ground problem these companies all have to face?  Hardware.  It’s expensive with a capital every darn letter in the word!  Expensive to design, expensive to built, expensive to test, expensive to sell, expensive to support, you get the drift by now.

This leaves the field of innovation in hardware rather thin, thus creating Peter’s “pizza tail”.  In fact, the 4 companies I named above are truly variations on existing categories (TiVo=VCR, Prismiq=DVD player without the DVD, Dash=GPS, Presto=Printer).  When people ask me about the gadgets you can build with BUG, I actually prefer to leave the question unanswered.  I have a few ideas of my own, but I think the space between the categories will be defined by the first generation of Bug Labs’ customers.

I look forward to watching engineers, product designers, and entrepreneurs have the ability to innovate in hardware without facing the ridiculous cost and resource strains it takes to start a gadget company.  Until then, I’ll take a slice with Pepperoni+Mushrooms.  Okay, you can throw a little red onions on there too.

Posted in Gadgets | Leave a comment |

I want a WidgetBlocker

Posted on September 3, 2007 by Jeremy Toeman

Saw Ryan’s two-part anti-IntelliTXT rant, and I have to say I’m in 100% agreement with him. Now I’m going to go one step further. I want a full-on end-user-configurable WidgetBlocker. Widgets are unquestionably slowing down page loading, so if how about putting the control in my hands? Here’s my note to my blogging friends:

I, for one, don’t much care who your recent readers were, or what you are listening to on Last.FM (don’t take it personally – it’s just not why I visit your blog). If I want to see your photos, I’ll go to Flickr. I don’t need to see the latest cartoon from GapingVoid (though they are hilarious – but I’ll go there when I want to see them). I don’t care how many feedburner subscribers you have. I don’t really mind your most recent microblog/tweet entry, but do you need it to be in a 250px tall box?

For those of you who need to make money of your blog, fine, show the ads, I understand. But if you are just doing it to get an extra $50 bucks a month, maybe you should think about decluttering a little. At the very least, how about just cleaning up the layout enough that you don’t show ads that look like regular content?

There is a reason for services like My.Yahoo, PageFlakes and NetVibes.  Maybe we can shift the widgetworld into letting people publish to each others’ pages, rather than slow down my ability to read your blog.  So, I’ve gone ahead and registered widgetblocker.com.  Anyone want to build the plugin with me?

Posted in Gadgets, Web/Internet | 12 Comments |
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About

Jeremy Toeman is a seasoned Product leader with over 20 years experience in the convergence of digital media, mobile entertainment, social entertainment, smart TV and consumer technology. Prior ventures and projects include CNET, Viggle/Dijit/Nextguide, Sling Media, VUDU, Clicker, DivX, Rovi, Mediabolic, Boxee, and many other consumer technology companies. This blog represents his personal opinion and outlook on things.

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